Analysis
11/11/22
7 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Saints vs. Steelers
New Orleans Saints (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)
Opening Spread: Steelers +2.5.
Opening Game Total: 41.
Opening Team Totals: Steelers (19.25), Saints (21.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Steelers +2.5.
- This line has moved down to Steelers +1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Steelers +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Steelers +1.5.
- This total opened at 41 points.
- This total has moved down slightly to 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Steelers:
Out: CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB William Jackson.
Questionable: LG Kevin Dotson, Edge T.J. Watt, Edge Malik Reed.
Saints:
Out: RB Mark Ingram, WR Michael Thomas, LG Andrus Peat, C Erik McCoy, LB Pete Werner, CB Marshon Lattimore.
Questionable: Edge Marcus Davenport, S Marcus Maye.
The Steelers Offense vs. Saints Defense
Pittsburgh has a bottom-tier offensive line. New Orleans has a top-10-level front. The Saints' defense has a trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Pittsburgh is 3-4-1 against the spread this season.
- The Steelers are 3-5 on overs this season.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is 2-3 against the spread in his career.
- Pickett is 2-3 on overs in his career.
- Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 126-118-5 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Tomlin is 109-137-3 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Steelers Offense
- Pittsburgh is scoring 15 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- The Steelers are 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Najee Harris has only breached 50 yards rushing in three of his eight contests.
- RB Jaylen Warren has looked good at times this year, but keep in mind he’s never had more than six carries in a game, and he’s only had more than one target in three games.
- WR Diontae Johnson started the season with three straight double-digit target games. He’s had two in the five games since Pickett took over.
- Rookie WR George Pickens has at least six targets in five of his last six games.
- TE Pat Freiermuth has at least seven targets in five of seven games. Freiermuth has 75 yards receiving or more in three games.
- Per TruMedia, Johnson has played 408 snaps on the perimeter and 52 in the slot.
- Pickens has played 349 snaps on the perimeter and 46 in the slot.
Saints Defense
- New Orleans has allowed 25.2 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Saints have allowed the 13th most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New Orleans has given up the tenth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Saints have given up the sixth most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- New Orleans has allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Saints Offense vs. Steelers Defense
At full strength, the Saints have a top-10 offensive line that’s closer to five than 10. They’ve been down No. 19 overall pick Trevor Penning at left tackle all year. This week, they’ll add left guard Andrus Peat and center Erik McCoy to their list of inactives. On the other side of things, the Steelers get reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt back. That addition pushes the Steelers' front back into the top-10. Given the injury situations for both teams, the Steelers have a trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- New Orleans is 3-6 against the spread this season.
- The Saints are 5-4 on overs this season.
- Saints QB Andy Dalton is 80-72-6 against the spread in his career.
- Dalton is 81-76-1 on overs in his career.
- Saints coach Dennis Allen is 17-27-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Allen is 21-23-1 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Saints Offense
- New Orleans is scoring 23.6 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- The Saints are seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Alvin Kamara was seeing monster usage in the month of October, logging 11-to-23 carries and 6-to-10 targets in all four of those games. Last week against the Ravens Kamara had nine carries and four targets.
- Chris Olave’s 26.9% target share is 16th in the league and his 43.5% air yards share is fourth.
- After missing each of the last five games, WR Jarvis Landry is off the injury report.
- TE Juwan Johnson has at least four targets in four of his last six games.
- Per TruMedia, WR Chris Olave has played 251 snaps on the perimeter and 92 in the slot.
- Landry has played 31 snaps on the perimeter and 108 in the slot.
Steelers Defense
- Pittsburgh is allowing 24.6 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Steelers have allowed the 12th most yards rushing per game and the 22nd most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Pittsburgh has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Steelers have given up the fourth most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the most to slot receivers.
- Pittsburgh has allowed the 23rd most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Steelers vs. Saints
A bet on the Steelers is a bet on a team coming off their bye and getting a jolt from the return of Watt. The return of Watt paired with the Saints being down their starting left guard and center gives the Steelers' defense a trench advantage. If I’m betting on Pittsburgh, that edge is the foundation for my wager.
You’re also getting Pickett coming off a bye week. We can realistically expect the Steelers to have a better-than-normal offensive game plan coming off the long week. Your biggest concern with a Steelers bet is the Saints' defense has its own trench advantage in this contest. I speak about line play as often as I do because those matchups determine how much an offense is capable of deploying in a given contest. If the Saints' pass rush derails this game, that affects what the Steelers' struggling offense can accomplish.
A bet on the Saints is a bet on a well-built roster ravaged by injuries. New Orleans struggled mightily against the Ravens last Monday night. Dalton has been solid this year, but I’d argue last week was his worst start. If you’re betting on New Orleans, you’re betting on a bounceback from Dalton despite facing a disadvantage in the trenches.
The Steelers have been beaten up by wide receivers this year, especially in the slot. The return of Landry, who has had some big games against Pittsburgh both as a Dolphin and a Brown, is well-timed for New Orleans. If the Saints get a cleaner game on offense while their defensive front limits the Steelers' offense, that’s your clearest path to a Saints' victory. Your biggest concern as a Saints bettor is the return of Watt spearheads a major defensive effort against the Saints' injured offensive line.
Awards Market Ramifications: Chris Olave is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Pittsburgh in most of my winner pools. I expect to be a little higher than the consensus in this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m planning on taking the Steelers against the spread this week.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
Watch More: Rod Woodson Ranks His Top 10 NFL teams
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