Expert Analysis
3/27/24
6 min read
Arizona Cardinals Hold Key to 2024 NFL Draft Mystery Box
The 2024 NFL Draft is one month away, and there’s not much suspense regarding the top three picks.
The Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots need franchise quarterbacks and the consensus is they will select Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye in that order. It would be a surprise if any of those teams traded down from their top three spots.
The pre-draft drama is squarely focused on the No. 4 pick and what the Arizona Cardinals decide to do. Will they stay put and pick their next Larry Fitzgerald in wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Or will the Cardinals trade the pick to the Minnesota Vikings or Denver Broncos, who would then most likely select QB J.J. McCarthy? Perhaps a surprise team such as the Las Vegas Raiders (holding No. 13 overall) could swoop in and make the best offer to Arizona in search of a better option than Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell.
Vikings In Position to Trade Up
Both the Vikings and Broncos are sending strong signals that they want to move up from No. 11 and 12, respectively, to grab a potential franchise quarterback.
Kirk Cousins left the Vikings for Atlanta in free agency, and the Vikings responded by signing Sam Darnold, who is on his fourth team. Minnesota then made an astute trade to acquire Houston’s No. 23 overall pick for 2024 and 2025 second-round picks. That move positions Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to package the team’s two first-rounders plus a possible middle-round pick in 2025 to move up to Arizona’s spot.
As expected, the Vikings are playing it coy with coach Kevin O’Connell saying at this week’s league meeting the team could move up or stay put and pick two players in the first round.
“Yes, we want to, if we identify a player that we would like to go up and add to our football team,” O’Connell said. “I think you view it as extra flexibility, we think there’s going to be some really good players available if we were to stay at those positions (pick 11 and pick 23) and take maybe a quarterback, maybe a couple defensive players.”
O’Connell then praised Darnold, who began his career as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft by the New York Jets.
“I think Sam’s best football is ahead of him because of how he’s handled the last couple years, going 4-2 down the stretch in Carolina in ’22 or his work in San Francisco.”
Sounds good, Kevin, but we’re not buying your typical draft season double-talk. Not when the Vikings sent QB coach Josh McCown and assistant QB coach Grant Udinski to McCarthy’s pro day last week at Michigan. And O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah have scheduled a private meeting and workout with McCarthy on the Michigan campus. They also are planning private sessions with Daniels and Maye.
O’Connell even said he’s keeping star receiver Justin Jefferson in the loop on the team’s quarterback plans as they try to finalize a record-breaking extension with the All-Pro receiver.
Moving up to No. 4 is clearly the goal for the Vikings. Trading with the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 leaves the door open for a team such as Denver to jump them for McCarthy, who is gaining steam as the draft approaches. Staying at No. 11 would likely force the Vikings to pick another need position such as edge rusher or cornerback. In that case, perhaps they take Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. at No. 23 if they value one of them that highly.
>>READ MORE: Ranking 2024 Draft's Top 11 Quarterbacks
Drafting a Quarterback 'Realistic' for Broncos
Sean Payton is a bit less guarded in his comments on the team’s desire to vault up to Arizona’s spot and pick a quarterback. After dumping Russell Wilson and having journeyman vet Jarrett Stidham as the current starter, the Broncos coach said this week that trading up to get a quarterback is a “realistic” option.
“It’s good to be Monti right now,” Payton said in referring to Arizona GM Monti Ossenfort.
To soften his draft quarterback comments, Payton said the Broncos could add another veteran quarterback to compete with Stidham, whom he said is not necessarily in the “driver’s seat.”
“I think we’ve got a pretty good plan in place,” Payton said. “We understand what we’re doing and we’re going to be smart about it.”
>>READ MORE: 2024 NFL Mock Draft After First Wave of Free Agency
Chargers Stand to Benefit from Run on QBs
Then there’s new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh fanning the flames on McCarthy, who led Harbaugh’s national champion Michigan team last season.
Harbaugh said of McCarthy after he participated in the Michigan Pro Day, “The workout J.J. had — I’ve been to a lot of pro-day workouts — that’s the best I’ve ever seen a quarterback do at pro day.”
The coach furthered his praise in calling McCarthy the best quarterback in a strong class, saying he “plays quarterback the best” of the group.
Harbaugh has his own not-so-hidden agenda because the Chargers already have franchise quarterback Justin Herbert. Harbaugh obviously would love to see quarterbacks selected with the first four picks since his team holds No. 5.
If the Vikings, Broncos or another team trades for the Cardinals' No. 4 pick and quarterbacks are the first four picks for the first time in NFL history, then the Chargers would be able to draft the top non-QB. That gives them the possibility of taking their highest-rated receiver (Harrison, Jr. or perhaps Malik Nabers) to help replace the departed Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.
Harbaugh said as much: “If four quarterbacks go in the first four picks, that’s like the No. 1 pick in the draft for teams that have a great quarterback already.”
>>READ MORE: 2024 NFL Draft Big Board
The Smokescreens are Only Beginning
Bottom line — expect a lot of continued chatter about McCarthy and the other top quarterbacks up to and into the early first round on April 25.
Buckle up, folks. We’ve got another month of private quarterback meetings and workouts, posturing by teams and trade offers heading Arizona’s way with news leaks — planned (as smokescreens) and unplanned — along the way. It’s all part of the pre-draft hype and subterfuge that takes over in earnest once the early free agent period ends.
And the pivot point of the 2024 NFL Draft is currently at No. 4 with the Cardinals in the catbird seat.
