NFL Analysis
12/29/24
6 min read
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Could Play Spolier in NFC Playoffs
It seemed unlikely earlier this year, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look like a potential playoff spoiler in the NFC if they can get into the postseason.
The Buccaneers blew the doors off of the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, pulling off a 48-14 victory to move to 9-7 on the year. The late-season surge for a playoff berth continues for Baker Mayfield and company, winning five of their last six games.
Despite having the same record as the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay's 0-2 record against its divisional rival means that the Buccaneers need Atlanta to lose one of their last two games to sneak into the postseason, provided Tampa can win its season finale against the New Orleans Saints.
Being unable to control their own destiny is a tough pill to swallow. However, if the Buccaneers can slip into the playoffs, then no other team in the NFC playoff picture will be eager to face them.
Tampa's Electric Offense
There was a time when Baker Mayfield looked like he was going to leave the NFL. Instead, the former No. 1 overall pick has turned into a franchise quarterback for the Buccaneers.
By the time Mayfield was benched in the blowout, the Buccaneers were up 48-14, and the star quarterback finished with as many incompletions as passing touchdowns. He completed 27-of-32 passes for 359 yards, five touchdowns, and a near-perfect 153.0 passer rating.
Mayfield's efficiency was just as impressive. According to RBSDM, he generated 26.5 total EPA, with an impressive 0.72 EPA per dropback.
It wasn't like Mayfield was dinking and dunking down the field, either. He was absurd, throwing the intermediate and deep ball with ruthless efficiency. According to Pro Football Focus, on throws of 10 yards or further downfield, Mayfield completed 13-of-17 passes for 219 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
The 2024 season has far and away been the best of Mayfield's career. He's already past his previous career-high numbers in passing yards and touchdowns, approaching 4,300 yards through the air with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. It will likely also be the first season where Mayfield finishes the year with a triple-digit passer rating over 100.0.
J Mac's 4️⃣ straight games with a TD grab is tied for the fourth-longest streak by a rookie in NFL history 🤯
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 29, 2024
📺: #CARvsTB on CBS pic.twitter.com/VLhoVVfgUW
A brutal injury to Chris Godwin could have derailed this season for Tampa Bay. Instead, Mayfield, Mike Evans, and rookie WR Jalen McMillan have put up video game numbers in recent weeks to keep the team's playoff hopes alive.
However, it hasn't all been about the passing game. Rookie RB Bucky Irving has looked like a draft steal with a strong first year in the NFL. He broke 1,000 rushing yards for the season on Sunday, rushing for another 113 yards on 20 carries.
While he isn't a breakaway home-run threat, Irving's frame and excellent contact balance have quickly turned him into Tampa Bay's preferred back. Per PFF, Irving's 4.16 yards after contact per attempt this year are the best in the NFL among all rushers.
That offensive balance and a career year from Mayfield are big reasons why the Buccaneers had the seventh-best offense by DVOA heading into Week 17. With such a dominant outing on Sunday, there's a good chance that they climb up those rankings a spot or two.
What About the defense?
Even if Tampa Bay's defense isn't widely considered an elite unit, it has been doing enough in recent weeks to keep its playoff hopes alive.
Depth up front and some ascending young players have helped the Bucs be formidable in the trenches, ranking ninth against the run by DVOA. Second-year DT Calijah Kancey continues to be an explosive gap-penetrating interior defender, generating 25 pressures in the last six games.
7.5 sacks & counting for @Ckancey8 😤
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 29, 2024
📺: #CARvsTB on CBS pic.twitter.com/k56focFT07
Fellow second-year defender Yaya Diaby has had a breakout year, too. While he only has 2.5 sacks, he leads Tampa Bay and is tied for 11th in the league with 61 pressures this year. Other pass-rushing contributions have come from the likes of Vita Vea and Anthony Nelson.
However, the bigger concern is the back end of Tampa Bay's defense. They rank 25th against the pass by DVOA and have had to rely on a rookie in Tykee Smith to hold his own in the secondary. He hasn't been disappointing by any means, but Smith and the team's other young defensive backs, like Zyon McCollum, have all taken their lumps at times.
Meanwhile, veteran LB Lavonte David is showing signs of age and could potentially be nearing the end of an iconic career. The nearly 35-year-old linebacker has a career-high missed tackle rate of 17.1 percent this season while allowing a 108.3 passer rating when targeted. All of that signals that David's best days are likely behind him.
There are question marks on the defense, but as long as their young players in the trenches are generating pressure, it takes a lot of pressure off of the second- and third-level defenders.
The Path Ahead
The playoffs aren't a certainty, but the Buccaneers are in a good position to sneak into the postseason.
Tampa's final game will be against a Saints team that has been completely derailed by injuries. They've gone 3-11 in their last 14 games and looked completely lost offensively with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
As for the Falcons, their schedule looks much harder. They'll take on the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year in Jayden Daniels on Sunday Night Football, followed by a game in Week 18 against a frisky Panthers team that has been able to hang around against certain opponents.
If the Falcons slip up and the Buccaneers can sneak into the playoffs, anything is possible. A divisional title will guarantee them at least one home game, and their balanced offensive attack will be difficult for any defense to handle. A white-hot Mayfield can get his team fired up and ready to compete against anyone, regardless of how difficult the matchup might be.
The defense may not be perfect, but enough pass-rush and an offense that can carry them by scoring points could see Tampa Bay get deeper into the playoffs than casual fans might expect.
