Analysis
10/31/22
6 min read
Bengals vs. Browns DFS Monday Night Showdown
The Bengals' offense has hit its stride of late but now, without explosive plays from wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (hip), they have to figure things out anew. Cincinnati's offensive line needs to step up and prevent quarterback Joe Burrow from getting hit despite allowing three sacks in every game this season.
The Browns are on a four-game losing streak because they have been turning the ball over. They are undefeated in games in which they have zero turnovers. The Bengals' defense hasn't forced a turnover in the last two games but did force one in four straight games before that. This game has a lot of good matchups worth keeping an eye on.
Vegas Line: Bengals -3
Over Under: 47.5
Notable Injuries:
Browns: Out: TE David Njoku, RG Wyatt Teller, CB Denzel Ward. Questionable: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CB Greg Newsome, CB Greedy Williams.
Bengals: IR: DT D.J. Reader. Out: Ja'Marr Chase, DT Josh Tupou. Doubtful: CB Eli Apple.
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Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Bengals Offense vs. Browns Defense
- Burrow averages 7.8 yards per attempt, 6.9 air yards per attempt and a 5.6% pass touchdown rate.
- The Browns allow 7.5 yards per attempt, 7.9 air yards per attempt and a 3.9% pass touchdown rate.
- Cleveland uses a zone-heavy scheme, and last season they held the Bengals to less than 20 points in both games.
- In zone coverage, the Browns rank in the bottom 10 of yards per attempt, air yards per attempt and pass touchdown rate.
- Burrow, against zone coverage, averages 7.9 yards per attempt, 6.6 air yards per attempt and a 2.6% pass touchdown rate.
- Burrow only has 20 attempts without Chase on the field in the last two seasons, and that data isn't a big enough sample from which to extract.
- Against zone coverage, WR Tee Higgins averages 2.3 yards per route run, which is the highest on the team.
- Higgins will be Cincinnati's primary target, but against zone coverage, Burrow has targeted his running backs and tight ends more.
- Both RBs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine get targeted on more than 20% of their routes vs. zone coverage, and TE Hayden Hurst is third on the team in target share.
- Bengals WR Tyler Boyd has made plays against man coverage but is only targeted on 13.3% of his routes against zone.
- Backup WRs Mike Thomas and Trent Taylor are the two who could take over for Chase.
- Thomas is favored to get more targets, but Morgan is a large-field possibility.
- The Bengals will also potentially go with more two tight end sets to utilize Hurst and TE Mitchell Wilcox.
- Mixon will lead the running back room, with Perine working occasionally.
- The Browns are giving up five yards per attempt to running backs and have allowed two receiving touchdowns to the position.
- Cleveland is allowing plenty of running backs to find success against them, putting Mixon in a great spot to make plays.
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Browns Offense vs. Bengals Defense
- Browns QB Jacoby Brissett averages 6.8 yards per attempt, 7.9 air yards per attempt and a 2.6% pass touchdown rate.
- Brissett is attempting to throw the ball downfield but has been unsuccessful.
- The Bengals use a zone-heavy scheme, allowing 6.3 yards per attempt, 8.6 air yards per attempt and a 2.6% pass touchdown rate.
- Teams are trying to push the ball downfield against the Bengals but have not connected often.
- Brissett has been successful against zone coverage, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt and a 1.6% pass touchdown rate.
- Normally, there are three primary targets for Brissett in zone coverage: WRs Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones and TE David Njoku.
- With Njoku out, Harrison Bryant will take over his role. Bryant is frequently targeted vs. zone coverage.
- Brissett likes to spread the ball around, so it's reasonable to assume all three of these players will get targeted often.
- The Bengals have one of the better run defenses in football, but they have yet to face a talented rushing attack like Cleveland's.
- Browns RB Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards and will be utilized heavily in his matchup.
- Chubb has eclipsed 100 yards rushing against the Bengals in two of his last three games and averages 5.6 yards per carry against them.
- Backup RB Kareem Hunt is rumored to be on the trading block and hasn't gotten more than five touches in the last two weeks.
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Overall Thoughts
Burrow does not have a replacement in this offense for Chase, and it will show up in this game. I still believe the Bengals will move the ball, but I think their drives stall out, and we see plenty of kicker Evan McPherson. Mixon and Higgins will see plenty of work in this offense, and I don't believe the secondary players, such as Thomas, make plays for this team. The pass rush for the Browns will be the key in this game, and the Bengals have allowed at least three sacks in every game this season.
Chubb will see a lot of work in this game, as Hunt's usage hints he could be traded. Brissett will need to move the ball through the air early, and Bryant should have an advantage on the outside. Cooper is the better player against zone coverage, but Peoples-Jones won't generate much separation. However, he is just one deep ball away from a touchdown.
Multiplier Pool
- Nick Chubb
- Joe Mixon
- Tee Higgins
- Evan McPherson
- Harrison Bryant
FLEX Pool
- Joe Burrow
- Jacoby Brissett
- Amari Cooper
- Tyler Boyd
- Hayden Hurst
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Cade York
- Bengals DST
- Browns DST
- Trent Taylor
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