Betting
1/11/24
5 min read
Best Bets for Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups
Below, you’ll find best bets for each game of wild-card weekend from Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Ahaan Rungta and Patrick H.
You can also find all our plays in our FREE Discord in the prop-bets channel.
Top Wild-Card Weekend Player Props
Browns at Texans
Spread: Texans +3
Game Total: 44.5
Joe Flacco OVER 36.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -120 on BetMGM
Joe Flacco, albeit in a limited, five-game sample, has been a reliable volume passer this season. He’s thrown the ball at least 42 times in all but one contest in his five starts. That miss was in Week 18 against the New York Jets, where he carved them up for 309 yards and three touchdowns on 29 pass attempts. Backup QB Trevor Siemian wasn’t able to keep pace, so the Cleveland Browns were able to take their foot off the gas in that contest.
Looking at this week’s matchup against the Houston Texans, it’s difficult to see C.J. Stroud’s offense turning into any version of the Jets. The Texans' defense allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt (third-highest), yet its 3.3 yards per carry allowed to running backs ranks dead last in the NFL.
It’s clear how the Browns can upset the Texans in Houston, and the offense should flow through Flacco’s arm.
Dolphins at Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -4
Game Total: 44
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 0.5 Interception
Best Odds: -112 on FanDuel
The odds that Tua Tagovailoa throws over 0.5 interceptions are -125 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet, a difference of nearly three percentage points in FanDuel’s favor. Tagovailoa has thrown an interception on 2.3 percent of his pass attempts the past two seasons with Mike McDaniel.
For this game, Tagovailoa’s pass attempts line is set at 33.5. If we assume he goes under and attempts 33 passes, we could expect him to throw an interception 53.4 percent of the time; -112 implies a 52.8 percent chance. Assuming Tagovailoa is just over 34 attempts, we should expect him to throw a pick 55 percent of the time.
The other important factor here is the game temperature. Via the National Weather Service, the game temperatures should be from 4 to 9 degrees during the game, with wind chill making it feel like it’s below minus 8 degrees the majority of the contest. Tagovailoa has minimal experience in cold weather games, and this should be the coldest contest he’s ever taken part in — by a significant margin.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 27.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -119 on Caesars Sportsbook
On the season, Patrick Mahomes has had over 27.5 rushing yards in eight of his 16 games.
That becomes eight of 11 when he records at least four carries, six of nine when he is at home and four of seven when facing a defense that ranks in the top 12 in pressure rate. This weekend at home, he'll face a Miami Dolphins defense that ranked No. 1 in pressure rate in the regular season, and Mahomes’ rush attempt line is at 4.5 with juice to the over.
The last five mobile quarterbacks to face Miami have all used their scrambling ability. Josh Allen posted 67 rushing yards on 15 carries, Lamar Jackson posted 36 rushing yards on six carries, Dak Prescott posted 25 rushing yards on five carries, Sam Howell posted 21 rushing yards on four carries, and Patrick Mahomes recorded 24 rushing yards on six carries in a run-heavy script where Kansas City was playing from behind all game.
Mahomes usually turns it up on the ground in the postseason; he has cleared this line in seven of his last 12 playoff games and now has to play with the worst NFL receiving core he has ever had. With strong coverage, Mahomes is elite at leaving the pocket to avoid sacks, and running is the way he does it.
Since coming off a bye in Week 11, Miami’s defense ranks No. 3 in rush EPA per play allowed, so in chilly conditions, Kansas City will have to find methods of offense other than pounding the ground with Isiah Pacheco.
Trent McDuffie OVER 4.5 tackles + assists
Best Odds: +125 on Bet365
Trent McDuffie has gone over this total in 11 out of 16 games played this year, including 11 tackles at home against the Miami Dolphins earlier this season. The Dolphins gave up the ninth most tackles to opposing cornerbacks in the regular season at 13.3 per game. Every slot cornerback went over this total against the Dolphins during the last six weeks of the season. The weather will undoubtedly be a factor in this game, but it should lead to more short passes and rush plays, which play into McDuffie's strengths.
This season, he has the third-highest tackle rate (9.1 percent) among all qualified cornerbacks against the run, and 73 percent of his tackles on pass plays this season have come inside 10 yards. My model has this going over around 67 percent of the time.
Steelers at Bills
Spread: Bills -10
Game Total: 36.5
Mason Rudolph UNDER 27.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings and ESPN Bet
The odds of Mason Rudolph being under 27.5 pass attempts is currently -136 on FanDuel, a discrepancy of six-and-a-half percentage points. Rudolph has been under this number in all three of his starts, and the weather in Buffalo should be hellacious (cold temperatures mixed with 20-30 mph winds).
While the Buffalo Bills are 10-point favorites, the Pittsburgh Steelers have shown a commitment to running the ball in the second half of this season. The other appealing element of this bet is the risk of Rudolph getting benched for poor performance. Kenny Pickett is fully healthy and could replace Rudolph at the half if he struggles in any way.
Alex Highsmith UNDER 0.25 Sack
Best Odds: -145 on DraftKings
Alex Highsmith's sack odds are listed at -165 for under 0.5 sack on ESPN Bet, but we prefer the -145 juice at the slightly different number.
Highsmith has at least 0.5 sack in just six of 17 games this year (35 percent). T.J. Watt has already been ruled out of this game, so more attention should be on Highsmith each play. And Josh Allen has taken a sack on just four percent of his dropbacks, the lowest mark in the NFL.
Additionally, because of the bad weather in this game, Allen’s pass attempts line is 29.5 with heavy juice (-125) to the under — overall, he averaged 34 attempts per game this season. Allen has faced the Steelers four times over his career and has taken one or fewer sacks in three of those four games.
Sacks will be difficult to come by for Highsmith this weekend.
Packers at Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -7.5
Game Total: 50.5
Jayden Reed OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
The odds on this line have already been juiced to -120 on several other sportsbooks. Jayden Reed is only 7-9 on this line for the season, but he’s had two narrow misses (48 and 46 yards). He’s caught fire down the stretch, as many rookie wide receivers do, with at least 52 yards or 10 targets in his past four games.
The Dallas Cowboys' defense has allowed multiple wide receivers from the same team to reach 50 yards in five of their past seven games, too: Curtis Samuel, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in Week 12; DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 13; A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 14; Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Week 16; and Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams in Week 17.
Rams at Lions
Spread: Lions -3.5
Game Total: 51.5
Matthew Stafford OVER 270.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Matthew Stafford's passing yards number has risen to 272.5-275.5 yards on every other sportsbook but is still at 270.5 on FanDuel. Stafford reached this number in four of his final five games to close out 2023, and his one miss during that time was 258 yards against Washington. The Detroit Lions should score against the Los Angeles Rams and keep this competitive, ensuring Stafford needs to throw often.
Against the Lions during the regular season, quarterbacks averaged 268 yards per game (second-highest) at 7.8 yards per attempt (second); Detroit held running backs to just 60 rushing yards per game (last). The path to beating the Lions is through the air, and Stafford is well-positioned to shred his former team Sunday night.
Eagles at Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers +3
Game Total: 44
Chris Godwin OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings & ESPN Bet
Chris Godwin has gone over 55.5 receiving yards in three of his past five games, and the two misses were by just three and five yards. The Philadelphia Eagles' secondary is a disaster, and this game has some sneaky shootout potential. Both teams’ offensive lines can mitigate the opponent’s pass rush, and both teams have a bottom-tier secondary.
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown
Best Odds: -120 on FanDuel
This line is already heavily juiced on most other sportsbooks — and rightfully so; Jalen Hurts as the goal-line back has been one of the most effective plays in football over the last two years. This season, the usage has been reliable, too.
Hurts has scored in 11 of his 17 games this season and scored in each of his playoff games last season, including three in the Super Bowl. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense is not good these days, ranking No. 23 in EPA per play allowed since coming off its Week 6 bye.
The Eagles should have few issues putting together scoring drives even with their injuries; with A.J. Brown banged up, Hurts should be Philadelphia's highest-usage player in scoring range and is a candidate for a ladder.
