NFL Analysis
12/27/24
7 min read
Jayden Daniels Having Rookie Season For The Ages
It’s always a great story when a rookie quarterback emerges as a star to lift a downtrodden franchise, lead them to the playoffs, and energize the fan base in the process.
Such was the case last season with C.J. Stroud in Houston, and it’s close to being repeated this season in Washington by Jayden Daniels, who is having a rookie season that compares favorably with the best of all time.
Like Stroud, Daniels was the second overall pick in the draft and has led a Commanders team from the abyss of 4-13 last season to being one win away from clinching a wild card spot. That could come for Daniels and his 10-5 team on Sunday night against Atlanta or in the season finale at Dallas (or with a Tampa Bay loss at home to Carolina or New Orleans).
Daniels is having the best season of the five first-round QBs in 2024. He ranks eighth in passer rating (101.3), fifth in completion rate (69.7%), and second in QB rushing (737 yards). He has 22 TD passes, only eight interceptions and six rushing TDs.
Daniels should easily be selected Offensive Rookie of the Year. He won’t win league MVP, but he should be among the top 10 in the voting.
It’s impressive that Daniels is finishing the season strong with three straight wins, including last week’s come-from-behind victory over the Eagles to stop their 10-game winning streak. He rallied the Commanders from a 13-point deficit with three TD passes in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning 9-yard TD pass to Jamison Crowder with 10 seconds left. Daniels threw five TD passes and rushed for a team-high 81 yards against the NFL’s No. 1 defense.
Daniels has made two of this season’s most memorable and dramatic plays. His Hail Mary TD pass on the final play beat the Chicago Bears in Week 8 and he delivered the winning play last week.
Under the guidance of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and head coach Dan Quinn, Daniels has been the catalyst for the Commanders’ great improvement offensively this season. They are ranked fifth in total offense (vs. 24th last season) and third in rushing (27th last year), with Daniels the team’s leading rusher. Washington’s scoring is up 9.4 points per game and the time of possession and turnover improvement have helped the defense that is allowing 7.6 fewer points per game and ranks tenth in yards allowed compared to the league’s worst unit in 2023.
It's worth noting that Daniels does not have a sterling supporting cast of skill position players other than a one-time Pro Bowl wide receiver in Terry McLaurin, who is having an outstanding season (73 catches, 1,029 yards—11th most in the league, and 12 TDs to rank second).
The rest of the crew is nothing special. The other wide receivers include Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Noah Brown, who caught the Hail Mary in the Bears game but is currently on IR with a kidney injury. 34-year-old tight end Zach Ertz has 55 catches but only a 9.8-yard average. Brian Robinson is the lead back but is second to Daniels in rushing yards with 729 (28th ranked).
Daniels’ pass protection has been spotty as he’s been sacked 38 times (seventh most in the league).
Daniels is generating 72% of the Commanders’ total offense between his passing and running, which is close to Stroud’s 73.5% last year in Houston when he was the key factor in the Texans’ improvement from 3-13-1 in 2022 to 10-7 plus a playoff win over Cleveland before being trounced in Baltimore. Stroud’s passer rating of 100.8 (ranking sixth) was slightly below Daniels' current pace.
There are five other rookie QBs in this century who have the stats and, more importantly, have lifted their teams as Daniels and Stroud have accomplished in the last two seasons. Interestingly, three of them are from the 2012 draft class—Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III as the top two picks, and Russell Wilson, who was a third-round steal. Here’s a look at this group:
Andrew Luck: He produced an incredible 80% of the Colts' offense. He inherited a 2-14 team and led them to an 11-5 season and a wild card playoff berth, which the Colts lost in Baltimore. His 4,374 passing yards are the rookie record. He threw 23 TD passes but had 18 interceptions, contributing to a 76.5 passer rating. He also ran for 255 yards.
Robert Griffin III: RG III won that season's Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He had a 102.4 passer rating to rank fourth in the league (with 20 TD passes, only five picks) and rushed for 815 yards and seven TDs. He contributed 65.4% of the offense for his team that improved from 5-11 to 10-6 in winning the NFC East before suffering a career-altering knee injury in the wild card loss to Seattle.
Russell Wilson: He won the starting job and took over a 7-9 team that jumped to 11-5 and won that wild card playoff game at Washington. He then threw for 385 yards and two TDs in a 30-28 divisional-round loss at Atlanta.
Wilson had a 100.0 passer rating (sixth-ranked with 26 TD passes and 10 interceptions) and rushed for 489 yards as part of his 64% contribution to the Seahawks' total offense.
Two other QBs who belong in this discussion of top rookie QB seasons are Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott.
Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben was Pittsburgh’s first-round pick in 2004. He went to a team with an excellent supporting cast, but the Steelers were coming off a 6-10 season. Roethlisberger had a 98.1 passer rating (fifth-ranked) and was a big difference maker in winning his first 14 starts, including a divisional playoff victory over the Jets before losing to the Patriots in the AFC title game.
Since Roethlisberger rarely ran the ball, his offensive output amounted to 53% of the Steelers' total.
Dak Prescott: Prescott slid to the fourth round in 2016 and was expected to back up Tony Romo as a rookie with the team coming off a disappointing 4-12 season. A preseason injury to Romo opened up the opportunity for Prescott to lead a talented Cowboys offense with a young Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant at WR and a stout offensive line.
Prescott threw for 3,667 yards with a 104.9 passer rating to rank third. He rushed for 282 yards, producing 65.5% of the offense between his passing and rushing yardage. Overall, the Dallas offense improved from 27th in 2015 to fifth in a 13-3 season that earned the NFC’s No. 1 seed. However, the Cowboys were upset 34-31 by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the divisional playoffs despite a fine game by Prescott, who had 302 passing yards, three TD passes, and one interception.
Daniels is hoping for a strong finish to his outstanding rookie season with a playoff berth and a good postseason showing. An unexpected run to the NFC title game would vault him to the top of the list of 21st-century rookie QBs in the combination of great stats and winning big in Year 1 to elevate a previously moribund franchise.
