Analysis
10/28/22
5 min read
Bet on Nittany Lions in Big Ten Showdown vs. Buckeyes
One of college football’s biggest rivalries takes the stage this weekend as #13 ranked Penn State hosts the #2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday at noon. I’m taking a side on this game and I feel pretty darn good about it. Let’s tackle the analysis.
The History
First, let’s talk about this matchup in recent years and how it’s panned out. Since James Franklin became Penn State’s head coach in 2014, his team has only one loss of more than 13 points against the Buckeyes. In 2015, a hyper-talented Buckeyes’ squad dominated the Nittany Lions in a 38-10 win. That was one of the worst Penn State teams of Franklin’s tenure– they were 4-9 against the spread (ATS) that season and wound up in the almighty Taxslayer Bowl. They were then bested by Georgia in a 24-17 loss before Kirby Smart became the Bulldogs’ new coach. It wasn’t a good look for Penn State but it’s not indicative of how they’ve played Ohio State under Franklin’s regime.
Since 2014, the Nittany Lions have only beaten the Buckeyes’ once– a 24-21 revenge win in 2016. But in the other seven losses under coach Franklin, they’ve lost by an average margin of only 10 ppg. If you take out their 28-point loss in 2015, they’ve lost by an average margin of only 7 ppg. In summation, James Franklin and a highly motivated 6-1 Nittany Lions team are not intimidated or nervous about this Saturday’s showdown. They’ve been here before.
Last year Penn State played yet another close game against their archrival in a 33-24 loss on the road. C.J. Stroud was okay– throwing 22-34 for 305 yards and one touchdown. The Buckeyes relied on their rushing game for the majority of the contest, stacking up 161 yards compared to Penn State’s measly 33 yards on the ground. Three costly turnovers, including a fumble recovered for a touchdown before the first half break, were too much for the Nittany Lions to overcome. Even as +18.5 road underdogs, they covered ATS.
The Matchup
Let’s take a look at some important metrics that could decide this contest. In most cases, Penn State stacks up formidably against its foe.
| Category | Ohio State | Penn State |
| Strength of Schedule | 12th | 15th |
| Points Per Game | 49.6 (1st) | 33.4 (27th) |
| Opp Points Per Game | 15.9 (5th) | 18.9 (14th) |
| Red Zone Scoring % | 100% (1st) | 95.65% (9th) |
| Opp Red Zone Scoring % | 90.91% (109th) | 76% (17th) |
| Yards Per Rush | 5.6 (8th) | 5.0 (26th) |
| Opp Yards Per Rush | 2.9 (3rd) | 4.2 (72nd) |
| Yards Per Pass | 10.5 (3rd) | 7.6 (57th) |
| Opp Yards Per Pass | 5.9 (8th) | 6.0 (9th) |
| Interception % | 1.92% (50th) | 1.32% (18th) |
| Sack % | 9.74% (9th) | 4.91% (93rd) |
The Intangibles
First, this is more important than you may think, I have no biases in this contest. I say it often on podcasts and in articles– a sports bettor’s wins and losses are more often determined by internal biases than the game itself. If I have some sort of built-in feelings about a team or given rivalry, that could steer my assessment in the wrong direction. I grew up hating Penn State. My entire family is from Northern New Jersey and, for some reason, we moved to Eastern Pennsylvania when I was five years old. I was born into a New York Giants and Notre Dame family but I was surrounded by Penn State and Philadelphia Eagles’ fans. My passionate hatred remains, but I nonetheless love the Nittany Lions in this spot.
They’re also the home team this weekend. Playing in Happy Valley isn’t easy for any visiting team and that’s especially true for arch-rival Ohio State. Though I’m sure the Penn State faithful would prefer that this was a night-game with a full “whiteout” in their stadium, they’re already preparing fans for how important it will be to show up in energetic fashion on Saturday. In seven losses during Franklin’s reign, Penn State’s biggest let downs were played in Columbus, Ohio. Take those road games out of the equation and they’ve only had a -4.5 average point differential in four games.
Lastly, this game means just as much to Penn State as it does to Ohio State. Although most experts believe that the Buckeyes are a clear top four team in the country, they won’t qualify as easily if they lose in Happy Valley. In fact, since the Nittany Lions are 6-1 and they’ve played the 15th hardest schedule in the nation, they would immediately enter playoff contention with a win. And remember, it’s the Nittany Lions that have lost five straight to the Buckeyes, and it’s the Nittany Lions who are treated like their little brothers by the media. There should be no shortage of motivation for the home team.
Take Penn State +15
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