Betting
9/23/22
5 min read
Matchups Week 3: Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Opening Line: Seahawks -2.
Game Total: 41
Team Totals: Seahawks (21.5), Falcons (19.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Seahawks -2.
- This line has moved down to Seahawks -.5 as of Thursday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Seahawks -1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks as a Pick’Em.
- This total opened between 41 and 42 points.
- This total has moved up to 42.5 points as of Thursday evening.
Notable Injuries
Seahawks: S Jamal Adams (IR), C Austin Blythe (Questionable), DL Shelby Harris (Questionable), LB Cody Barton (Questionable), S Quandre Diggs (Questionable).
Falcons: LB Deion Jones (IR).
The Seahawks Offense vs. Falcons Defense
Both of these teams have bottom-tier lines, leaving no side with a significant advantage in the trenches.
Notes and Observations
- The Seahawks are 1-1 against the spread this season.
- The Seahawks are 0-2 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Geno Smith is currently 24th in the league in passing yards.
- Seattle spent most of Week 2 in a negative game script against rival San Francisco. Running back opportunities between Rashaad Penny (6 carries), Kenneth Walker III (4 carries, 3 targets) and Travis Homer (2 carries, 4 targets) were very even in that contest.
- During Week 1’s victory over Russell Wilson’s Broncos, Penny had 12 carries and three targets with Walker sidelined.
- The Falcons have given up the 12th-fewest rushing yards to running backs this season.
- Tyler Lockett’s snaps (83), routes run (56), receptions (12), receiving yards (135), target share (26.3%), team air yards share (41.6%), and yards per route run (2.41).
- D.K. Metcalf’s snaps (84), routes run (58), receptions (11), receiving yards (71), target share (22.4%), team air yards share (30.8%), and yards per route run (1.22).
- Through the first two games, the Falcons have surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards on the third-most receptions to opposing wide receivers.
- Atlanta has given up the sixth-most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the ninth-most to slot receivers.
- Seattle tight ends Will Dissly (61 snaps, 22 routes run) and Noah Fant (53 snaps, 27 routes run) are both seeing relatively even playing time through the first two games.
- The Falcons have given up the ninth most receiving yards on the 11th-most receptions to opposing tight ends.
The Falcons Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
Both of these teams have bottom-tier lines, leaving no side with a significant advantage in the trenches.
Notes and Observations
- The Falcons are 2-0 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 2-0 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Marcus Mariota is 22nd in the league in passing yards and third among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 92.
- Among running backs Cordarrelle Patterson is eighth in the league in rushing yards while seeing surprisingly limited usage as a pass-catcher.
- The Seahawks have surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs this season.
- On opening day, Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 11 receptions against the Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks have a long-standing history of giving up significant passing game volume to running backs (though 11 receptions is abnormally high).
- Falcons rookie wide receiver Drake London is the early alpha in Atlanta’s passing attack, leading the team in routes run (55), target share (33.3%), and team air yards share (29.4%).
- Seattle has allowed the 18th-most receiving yards on the sixth-fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Per TruMedia, Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts has seen 33% of his snaps as an in-line tight end, 32.1% in the slot, and 31.3% on the perimeter.
- Per The Edge, Seattle has allowed the seventh-most PPR points to in-line tight ends this season.
- Kyle Pitts has produced below expectations this season, but he has an intriguing matchup in Seattle this week. First, the Seahawks have given up above-average production to in-line tight ends this season. Second, Pitts will see significant reps on the perimeter in this contest. Seattle has a history of allowing one-on-one downfield opportunities to perimeter receivers.
This is What You’re Betting On in Seahawks vs. Falcons
A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on a bottom-tier roster led by quarterback Geno Smith. Seattle’s home-field advantage along with their wide receiver duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the two biggest positives in this football operation. A bet on Seattle is a bet against a southeast dome team that stayed on the west coast after playing in Los Angeles last week. Atlanta has more high-end talent than Seattle, but both of these teams’ rosters would be similarly tiered.
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on an overachieving team that has given their rival Saints and the defending champs two competitive games to start the season. If you’re betting on Atlanta here, you’re betting on a bottom-tier roster exceeding expectations for the third week in a row. The Seahawks are one of the few opponents that the Falcons could face where Atlanta has a better roster. Your biggest concern if you’re betting on Atlanta is if Marcus Mariota can continue to play at a reasonably high level. Your second biggest concern is a dome team playing outdoors after staying on the west coast this week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Falcons wide receiver Drake London is a contender in the Rookie of the Year race.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I won’t finalize until the weekend, but I expect to take Atlanta in winner pools this week. Whoever you take in this contest should be towards the bottom of your confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m going to avoid this game in tournaments.
Survivor: This contest should be avoided for survivor purposes.
