Analysis
11/11/22
9 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Lions vs. Bears
Detroit Lions (2-6) at Chicago Bears (3-6)
Opening Spread: Bears -3.
Opening Game Total: 48.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bears (25.75), Lions (22.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bears -3.
- This line has moved down to Bears -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bears -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bears -3.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total remains at 48.5 points.
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Notable Injuries
Bears:
Questionable: Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, CB Jaylon Johnson, CB Kindle Vildor.
Lions:
Out: FB Jason Cabinda, WR D.J. Chark, WR Jameson Williams, S Tracy Walker.
Questionable: RB D’Andre Swift, WR Josh Reynolds, S Kerby Joseph.
The Bears Offense vs. Lions Defense
This is a trench matchup between two bottom-tier lines. Lions rookie edge Aidan Hutchinson is an individual matchup problem for the Bears. Overall, the Bears' offensive line vs. the Lions' front is a pretty even trench matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bears are 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
- Chicago is 5-4 on overs this season.
- Bears QB Justin Fields is 8-12-1 against the spread in his career.
- Fields is 9-12 on overs in his career.
- Bears coach Matt Eberflus is 4-4-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Eberflus is 5-4 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
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Bears Offense
- Chicago is scoring 21.8 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- The Bears are last in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- Chicago has scored at least 29 points in each of their last three games.
- Fields had 178 yards rushing last week, which is the new single-game rushing record for a quarterback in NFL history.
- Fields has more than 80 yards rushing in three of his last four games, and at least 60 in all four.
- Per the Edge, since returning from injury, RB David Montgomery has at least 12 carries in each of his last five games. He’s had exactly 15 in three of the last four while seeing 14 carries last week.
- RB Khalil Herbert has double-digit carries in two of his last four games, seeing seven in each of the other two.
- WR Darnell Mooney has at least five targets in his last six games while only having less than 50 yards receiving once during that span.
- WR Chase Claypool only had 13 yards receiving on two receptions in his Bears debut last week. However, he also had six targets, which is pretty encouraging.
- TE Cole Kmet caught five of his six targets for 41 yards receiving and two touchdowns last week against Miami. In his previous eight games, Kmet breached 40 yards receiving twice.
- Per TruMedia, Mooney has played 238 snaps on the perimeter and 239 in the slot.
- Claypool is fourth in the league in slot snaps with 332. However, in his only game as a Bears Claypool played 23 snaps on the perimeter and just three in the slot.
- Kmet has played 307 snaps as an inline tight end, 43 on the perimeter, and 150 in the slot.
Lions Defense
- Detroit has allowed 29.3 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Eagles QB Jalen Hurts had 90 yards rushing and a score on 17 carries against the Lions on opening day.
- Per The Edge, the Lions have allowed the fifth most yards rushing per game and the fourth fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Detroit has given up the fourth most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Lions have given up the second most PPR points per game to slot receivers this year.
- Detroit has allowed the fifth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Lions have allowed the most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Lions Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Lions have a top-five-level offensive line while the Bears have a bottom-tier front. Detroit’s offensive line has a major advantage in the trenches.
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Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Lions are 4-4 against the spread this season.
- Detroit is 5-3 on overs this season.
- Lions QB Jared Goff is 47-42-2 against the spread in his career.
- Goff is 44-47 on overs in his career.
- Lions coach Dan Campbell is 19-18 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Campbell is 17-20 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Lions Offense
- Detroit is scoring 23.5 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- The Lions are 10th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, RB Jamaal Williams is 14th among running backs in yards rushing, and he’s third in rushing touchdowns with eight. Williams had 24 carries for 81 yards rushing last week.
- RB D’Andre Swift continues to have his load managed since returning from injury. Swift still looked like a difference-maker last week, but he only played 10 snaps while seeing two carries and four targets.
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has 19 total targets during the past two games, but he’s been held to 55 and 69 yards receiving.
- WR Josh Reynolds has at least six targets in four of his last five games. Reynolds missed last week’s contest against Green Bay.
- TEs Brock Wright and James Mitchell both saw limited opportunities in Detroit’s first game without T.J. Hockenson.
Bears Defense
- Chicago has allowed 24 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- The Bears have given up 84 total points over their past two games.
- Per The Edge, Chicago has allowed the sixth most yards rushing per game and the 19th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- The Bears have given up the 18th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Chicago has allowed the fourth fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bears vs. Lions
This is an interesting game from a sports betting perspective. Both of these teams are much different than they were a month ago. During the last three games, the Bears' offense has scored at least 29 points. Their defense, on the other hand, traded two of their best players. You could argue the Bears' defense has been the worst in the league during the past two games.
The Lions’ offense was performing at a high level through the first four games. Then, Detroit got hit by a litany of injuries to their best-skill position players, and now Hockenson is a Viking. Detroit’s defense was absolutely shredded in the first month of the season. While they are still a below-average unit, they have been significantly better during their last four games.
If you’re betting on the Bears, you are betting on Fields' run-centric offense continuing to have considerable success against a beatable Lions defense. With the addition of Claypool, the Bears suddenly have a good group of skill position players to support Fields. I have trouble accepting a world where the Chicago Bears’ defense is a liability, but that’s where we’re at right now.
If you’re betting on the Bears, you are hoping their defense can string together a decent effort against Detroit. You have two big concerns as a Bears bettor. The first is Fields and Chicago’s offense comes back down to Earth in what looks like a smash spot against Detroit. The second is Chicago’s front four and linebacker group gets eaten up in the run game and can’t pressure Goff.
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Pressure impacts every quarterback, but Goff is one of those guys that’s a completely different player with a clean pocket. If you’re betting on the Lions, you are betting on their top-five offensive line keeping Goff clean while giving Detroit a massive edge in the run game. Detroit’s group of pass catchers is significantly worse right now than they were on opening day.
WR D.J. Chark is out, Hockenson was traded and Swift is on a pitch count. Rookie WR Jameson Williams isn’t back yet, either. Detroit had a top-10 caliber offense on opening day, but that’s not who they are right now. If you’re betting on Detroit, you need the Lions to make the most of that trench advantage.
You also need Detroit’s defense to not let this Bears run game take of this contest. I’m reasonably confident in the Lions' offensive line having a major impact in this contest. A bet on the Lions' defense to play a consistent game or force a few turnovers like they did last week against Green Bay is a much bigger ask.
Awards Market Ramifications: Aidan Hutchinson is a Defensive Rookie of the Year Contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to split my exposure in winner pools in this contest, as I think both teams have pretty clear paths to victory. I’m going to rank this game as close to the bottom as I can in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I went into this game trying to get myself to a Bears -2.5 bet, but I actually think I’d lean more toward the Detroit side at this point. I don’t expect to play this game directly now, but I will get some exposure to it in DFS, which I’ll discuss more with Jordan Vanek during his Cover-5 show this Saturday.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Why Team's Running Games Have Blossomed in 2022
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