Betting
11/4/22
9 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Chargers vs. Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
Opening Spread: Falcons +3
Opening Game Total: 48.5
Opening Team Totals: Falcons (22.75), Chargers (25.75)
Weather: Dome
The Line Report
- This line opened as Falcons +3.
- This line has moved to Falcons +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Falcons +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Falcons +3.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 49.5 points.
- Notable Injuries
Falcons: Out: Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Casey Hayward; Questionable: LG Elijah Wilkinson, CB A.J. Terrell, S Jaylinn Hawkins
Chargers: Out: WR Mike Williams, LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa, CB J.C. Jackson; Questionable: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Josh Palmer, DL Jerry Tillery, Edge Chris Rumph II
The Falcons Offense vs. Chargers Defense
With Joey Bosa still sidelined, the Chargers have a slightly below average front. The Falcons' offensive line is in the same general range on the border of average and below average. From a macro sense this trench matchup is a relative draw, although Chargers edge Khalil Mack is a matchup problem against virtually everyone.
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Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Falcons are 6-2 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 6-2 on overs this season.
- Marcus Mariota is 39-39-2 against the spread in his career.
- Marcus Mariota is 46-33-1 on overs in his career.
- Arthur Smith is 12-12-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Arthur Smith is 13-12 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Falcons Offense
- The Falcons are scoring 25 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
- Atlanta is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Marcus Mariota is seventh among quarterbacks in yards rushing per game.
- Mariota has exceeded 20 passing attempts in just two of his last six games.
- Since Cordarrelle Patterson was sidelined, Tyler Allgeier has between 13 and 16 carries in all four of those games. Allgeier had three targets last week against the Panthers, the only time he’s been targeted during that span.
- Since Cordarrelle Patterson was sidelined, Caleb Huntley has six and eight targets in the two games that the Falcons have lost. Huntley has 16 carries in the two contests that Atlanta has won. Huntley has no targets this season.
- Atlanta continues to be a run-heavy offense even in negative game scripts.
- Drake London hasn’t exceeded 40 yards receiving in any of his last five games.
- Damiere Byrd had a 75-yard touchdown in Week 7 and a 47-yard score in Week 8.
- Kyle Pitts had five receptions on nine targets for 80 yards receiving and a score last week against the Panthers.
Chargers Defense
- The Chargers have allowed 27 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the second-most yards rushing per game and the 24th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Los Angeles has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.
The Chargers Offense vs. Falcons Defense
The Chargers are an average offensive line without LT Rashawn Slater. The Falcons are a bottom-tier front, but Falcons DT Grady Jarrett is a matchup issue against most opponents. The Chargers have a mild advantage in the trenches, though Jarrett is a noteworthy obstacle for the Chargers' rock solid interior.
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Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chargers are 4-3 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 4-3 on overs this season.
- Justin Herbert is 20-19 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Herbert is 23-16 on overs in his career.
- Brandon Staley is 12-12 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brandon Staley is 14-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Chargers Offense
- The Chargers are scoring 23.4 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- Los Angeles is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has Justin Herbert ranked seventh in their quarterback power rankings.
- Our Pro Scouting Department has Austin Ekeler ranked as the league’s 10th-best running back.
- Per the Edge, among running backs Austin Ekeler is 26th in yards rushing per game and first in yards receiving per game.
- Mike Williams is out, Keenan Allen is trending in that direction, and Josh Palmer’s status remains up in the air.
- Wide receivers DeAndre Carter and Michael Bandy could both see role expansion this week.
- Gerald Everett has five receptions in each of the last two games, with seven and nine targets in those contests.
- This is a great matchup for Chargers' pass-catchers, unfortunately Los Angeles will likely be down their two top options. This offense could, and probably should, run through Austin Ekeler if Keenan Allen can’t go.
Falcons Defense
- The Falcons have allowed 25.6 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing per game and the 17th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Atlanta has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Atlanta has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the third-most to those lined up in the slot.
- The Falcons have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.
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This Is What You’re Betting on in Falcons vs. Chargers
The Chargers would have multiple positional advantages in this matchup if their roster was at full strength. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, it is down a ton of impact players entering this contest. Even at full strength, the Chargers' run defense has been a genuine liability since Brandon Staley took over last season. The Falcons are a team that’s willing to continue running the ball at a high rate even when they are down multiple scores.
This game reminds me of last year's Chargers at Eagles matchup. The major exception being the Chargers' roster is worse right now than it was then, and Atlanta does not have as much talent as the Eagles did last year. The Chargers narrowly escaped that game with a 27-24 win, where Herbert essentially carried the offense while the Eagles ran the ball 39 times for 176 yards rushing and two scores.
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If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are betting on Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler carrying this offense past a very beatable Falcons' defense. You’re making that bet on Herbert despite the Chargers being down multiple difference-makers on offense. If Keenan Allen misses this contest, and it sounds like he should, the Chargers will have a replacement level group of wide receivers in this matchup. Beyond that, your biggest concern with a Chargers bet is that Atlanta will run the ball with great success and the Chargers will have no answer for it. The Chargers will also be traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast for a 1:00 PM ET start.
If you’re betting on Atlanta, you are betting on their running game this week. A 40-carry game out of Mariota and the Falcons running backs isn’t out of the question here. You have two core concerns with a Falcons bet. The first is that their running game unexpectedly stalls against the Chargers. That’s not the end of the world for Atlanta, as they have two blue chip pass-catchers in Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but the best-case scenario for Atlanta in this matchup is that the Chargers can’t stop the run. Your second is that Justin Herbert carries his injury-ravaged offense, because he’s one of the few quarterbacks on the planet that can consistently do that kind of thing.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to rank this game as low as I reasonably can in confidence pools. Given all the Chargers' injuries, I view this matchup as way more of a coin flip than I’d have originally expected. I will take Atlanta in at least one of my winner pools with weekly payouts.
Spread Pool: I’m going to stay away from this one against the spread, but I’m actually leaning towards taking Atlanta with the hook in spread pools where you have to pick every game.
Survivor Pool: I originally had this contest labeled as a usable spot for the Chargers. However, considering their current injury situations, I would avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: Eddie George's Top 5 NFL RBs
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