Betting
11/5/22
7 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Colts vs. Patriots
Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) at New England Patriots (4-4)
Opening Spread: Patriots -6.
Opening Game Total: 39.5.
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (22.75), Colts (16.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots -6.
- This line has moved to Patriots -5.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots -5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots -5.5.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total remains at 39.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Patriots: Out: WR DeVante Parker, C David Andrews, RT Marcus Cannon. Questionable: RB Damien Harris, Deatrich Wise Jr., DT Christian Barmore, LB Josh Uche, S Kyle Dugger.
Colts: Out: QB Matt Ryan, RB Jonathan Taylor. Questionable: LT Dennis Kelly.
The Patriots Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Colts front four has been a below average group this season, which is one of the bigger surprises for me. New England is a top-ten level offensive line, but they are down two of their starters, which makes them more of an average unit. New England has more of a mild trench advantage than the significant one they’d have if they were at full strength.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 4-3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 4-4 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 11-10-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mac Jones is 11-11 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 206-143-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Bill Belichick is 184-172-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots Offense
- The Patriots are scoring 22.1 points per game, good for 17th in the league.
- New England is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 13th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Rhamondre Stevenson is 13th among running backs in yards rushing per game. Stevenson has at least five targets in five of his last six games.
- Damien Harris had 11 carries versus Stevenson’s 16 last week against the Jets. Harris only had three the previous week coming back from injury.
- Jakobi Meyers has double-digit targets in two of his six games this year. Meyers has breached 50 yards receiving in five of those six games.
- Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are both good players, but they cut into each other’s opportunities when they are both active.
Colts Defense
- The Colts have allowed 19.6 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 14th most yards rushing per game and the fifth most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has given up the second fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have allowed the 16th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Colts Offense vs. Patriots Defense
You could argue that the Colts offensive line has been the most disappointing position group this season. They are a below average unit that has had major problems on the outside. New England has an average front with Matthew Judon, who is tied for the league-lead in sacks. Judon has a significant advantage coming off the edge against the Colts struggling offensive tackles.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 3-5 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 1-7 on overs this season.
- Sam Ehlinger is 3-1 against the spread in his career.
- Sam Ehlinger is 2-2 on overs in his career.
- Frank Reich is 36-34-3 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Frank Reich is 35-38 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Colts Offense
- The Colts are scoring 16.1 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Indianapolis is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 29th in yards rushing.
- Matt Ryan drove the above yards passing number. Expect Sam Ehlinger’s passing attack to be a bottom tier group going forward.
- Jonathan Taylor is out and Nyheim Hines is now in Buffalo. Deon Jackson had ten targets the last time he was on top of the depth chart.
- Keep in mind that stationary Matt Ryan was the Colts quarterback when Jackson saw that massive swell in his passing game volume.
- Michael Pittman had nine targets in Sam Ehlinger’s first start last week.
- Per TruMedia, Kylen Granson leads Colts tight ends in snaps from the slot this year with 84. Granson has played 136 snaps as an inline tight end and 23 on the perimeter.
Patriots Defense
- The Patriots have allowed 20.4 points per game, which is 12th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 22nd most yards rushing per game and the tenth most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New England has given up the 15th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the 13th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Patriots have allowed the fifth most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Patriots vs. Colts
This is a contest with a sub-40-point game total. Those are pretty rare unless severe weather is involved. Both teams have good defenses with below average offenses. The Colts are in a position where they are reliant on Sam Ehlinger carrying their offense with Jonathan Taylor out.
If you’re betting on the Patriots, you are betting on Bill Belichick’s defense against Sam Ehlinger. Part of that bet involves the major advantage that Mathew Judon has as a pass rusher. Bill Belichick’s defense against Sam Ehlinger is one of the clearest advantages I’ve seen all season. The issue here from a betting perspective is that the Patriots are laying six points. In order to win this bet you’re going to need a truly dominant performance from the Patriots defense or you’re going to need Mac Jones’ offense to manufacture a few scoring drives. My biggest concern with a Patriots bet is that they are down two starters on their offensive line, including center Mark Andrews. The Colts front has underachieved this season, but a ceiling game out of that group could give the Patriots real problems on offense.
I can’t bet on Sam Ehlinger against Bill Belichick’s defense. Not only is Ehlinger an unreliable option at quarterback, but the Colts offense is below average at every position group entering this contest. The clearest path to a Colts cover is that their defense plays well in a 17-13 type of game, where Ehlinger uses his mobility to make a few drive-extending plays. I could see that kind of effort out of the Colts defense, but expecting Ehlinger to play a clean game in this matchup is a pretty ambitious expectation.
Awards Market Ramifications: None.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Patriots in my winner pools and I might end up being a slot higher than the consensus on them in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I will either take the Patriots or pass here, I am leaning towards passing.
Survivor Pool: I will take the Patriots in one of my remaining survivor pool entries. I considered taking them in my main tournament entry but ultimately elected to go with the “safer” option with the Eagles.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: The Colts Failed Matt Ryan
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