NFL Analysis
9/6/24
8 min read
Biggest X-Factors for How the 2024 NFL Season Will Play Out
The 2024 NFL season is officially underway after a long offseason that brought significant change across the league. We think we know what to expect this year, but the best part of the NFL is how quickly things can change. One breakout star can swing how an entire conference plays out.
However, not all of the most important x-factors are players. Some coaches have the chance to write or rewrite their legacy. Successful people will become massive presences this season and into the next few years.
Here are the seven most important x-factors for the 2024 NFL season.
Important X-Factors for 2024 NFL Season
From playmakers to coaches and to staff, these seven entities will decide the fate of the 2024 season.
All 19 preseason Xavier Worthy routes run.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 26, 2024
- 47% 'go' route rate
- 29% target share when sharing the field with Patrick Mahomes (16 dropbacks) pic.twitter.com/xjUdmo4j6q
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs have already established themselves as the next NFL dynasty, and they're chasing a three-peat this season. However, the Chiefs offense might look a little different than the more run-oriented and timing-based passing attack we saw in 2023.
It's no secret the Chiefs aggressively added receiving talent to the roster in hopes of helping Patrick Mahomes.
The new duo of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy doesn't need to be a pair of All-Pros to get the job done. Brown, already missing time with a sternoclavicular joint dislocation, has been consistently good but not great throughout his career. That leads the Chiefs' 2024 first-round pick, Worthy, to be the big-play threat.
In the Chiefs' Week 1 win over the Ravens, Worthy had two receptions, 47 yards, one touchdown while adding a 21-yard rushing touchdown on the ground.
The first time Xavier Worthy touched the football in an NFL game: pic.twitter.com/aiHjHFK1Q8
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 6, 2024
Running his record-breaking 4.21-second 40-yard dash time was only one example of how dangerous Worthy is. If Andy Reid and Mahomes can generate the quality looks for Worthy that former Chief Kadarius Toney failed to take advantage of, then Worthy can be a redefining piece for an offense that continues to evolve based on their available help.
Dave Canales, HC, Carolina Panthers
Regardless of the context around it, Bryce Young stunk as a rookie. The Carolina Panthers did as much as they could this offseason to remedy Young's limited supporting cast, hiring Dave Canales as coach and adding talent across the offense. Canales, though, is the most important part of the puzzle.
While Young has his own areas to improve in, Canales' track record of getting the best out of quarterbacks is unique. He helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield post career-best years despite each being all but forgotten at that time in their career. Carolina doesn't have the best receivers or running backs, but getting Young's confidence and processing speed up to expectation levels will maximize the unit.
If Canales fails, the Panthers will need to consider whether they should make a bigger-picture decision with Young. Unlike last year, coaching shouldn't be a problem in 2024. With the 2025 quarterback class looking better now than it did before the season, Canales could want his own choice at the position.
That 9-10 connection. Stafford drops a dime to Kupp for the TD!
— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
📺: #LARvsBAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/KIfjJWKIU8
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
The NFC feels pretty open despite a good mixture of up-and-coming candidates and established powers. Perhaps the best sleeper team that has gone under the radar is the Los Angeles Rams. While they lost Aaron Donald, this is a talented young defense with an established offense and an improved offensive line.
The most important aspect of the Rams' 2024 season is staying healthy. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp struggled to stay on the field, and they only played eight games healthy last year. The good news is they were tremendous as a duo in those games, with Kupp producing as a top-five receiver in half of those.
Getting a full season out of Kupp will have a massive trickle-down effect on the Rams' offense. For as amazing as Puka Nacua was as a rookie, coach Sean McVay fully unlocked the unit with both on the field. That included finding a dynamic rushing game with Kyren Williams.
But Kupp is the biggest ceiling-riser of them all.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
The AFC North is loaded, but we could've included an excerpt on every one of the division's quarterbacks.
However, Joe Burrow has the most at stake and the most to overcome. He's returning from a wrist injury that had Burrow questioning his "football mortality" this offseason and caused him to take rest days throughout training camp.
The idea of the sweet-throwing pocket passer dealing with any type of injury that directly impacts his accuracy is terrifying. The Bengals are expected to return to the playoffs and compete with the Chiefs. Still, the situation seems more dire, considering Burrow's return from yet another major injury.
Then, factor in Ja'Marr Chase's contract fiasco, Trey Hendrickson's trade request, and a defense that has yet to prove itself as playoff-caliber, and there's a lot for Burrow to shoulder this fall. If he succeeds, Burrow will be ranked as an elite quarterback again.
Mike McCarthy, HC, Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been clear with his feelings about coach Mike McCarthy's job status beyond 2024. He's alluded to McCarthy's contract season as a moment of truth for this regime. McCarthy has to overcome not only one of the league's weakest offensive surrounding casts but also the loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to extend his stay.
Jones said Dallas' loss to Green Bay played a big part in not extending McCarthy yet.
“I admit this, the Green Bay thing,” Jones told Clarence Hill of DLLS. “When we lost the Green Bay game, we basically had everybody say, ‘OK, what are you going to do about this? OK, this wasn’t just a game. What are you going to do about this?’ And so it got the attention of everything we do.”
However, given Dallas' unwillingness to upgrade their roster this offseason, it's hard to imagine McCarthy will have an easier time overcoming tough opponents this winter. If McCarthy reaches whatever invisible expectation Jones has yet to define, then that's a new feather in the cap of a coach who doesn't have the reputation of elevating his team to higher levels.
Aidan Hutchinson Spin Move pic.twitter.com/5yY6hixu9s
— Firstdown_XOs (@FirstdownX__Os) May 13, 2024
Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are the trendy pick in the NFC to upset San Francisco and reach the Super Bowl. It's absolutely possible we will see Dan Campbell's feisty crew continue to ride its electric offense deep into the playoffs. To get there, though, the defense has to step up.
Detroit wisely added three rookies and two veteran starters to a defense that ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring and passing efficiency. The unit's star is still Aidan Hutchinson, who has the potential to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award. He needs more help creating and finishing sacks, but Hutchinson is good enough to keep the unit afloat during its worst times.
Now surrounded by more competent cornerbacks and a capable pass-rush partner in Marcus Davenport, Hutchinson could hit career-highs across the board. Or, he could be the key to unlocking all of those new pieces as he demands so much attention.
Either outcome would be a huge boost for Detroit's Super Bowl chances.
New York Jets Training Staff
Fans have been hand-wringing over how high the media is on the New York Jets roster, but it's undeniable that this starting lineup can reach the Super Bowl. The problem, though, and everyone has pointed this out, is how long these 22 starters can line up without suffering an injury. This is certainly more of a concern about the Jets' offense.
A unit needing a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers to be great after suffering a torn Achilles, a 33-year-old Tyron Smith, and almost 30-year-old Mike Williams seem doomed from the start. Smith and Williams have missed a combined 35 games during the last two years. The Jets have a backup option for Smith in rookie Olu Fashanu, but the depth at receiver has a massive drop-off.
Good luck to the Jets training staff tasked with keeping these guys on the field.
None of the injury concerns for Smith or Williams matter if Rodgers can't be above average or healthy. The AFC has better quarterback depth now more than ever, so the pressure will be on Rodgers to execute as well as he ever has despite so many factors going against him succeeding.
