Bills vs. Jets Week 9 Scouting Report: Grades and Key Matchups

Head of Pro Scouting, NFL Player Personnel Executive

This Scouting Report for Sunday afternoon's Bills-Jets game is produced by The 33rd Team’s Scouting Department, led by former Eagles, Cardinals, and Ravens personnel executive T.J. McCreight and assisted by scouts Justin Casey, Kevin Cohn, and Evan Pritt.

Jets’ Pass Rush vs. Bills’ OL

The Jets blitz at the third-lowest rate (15.8%), but have the third-most pressures in the league.
IDL Quinnen Williams leads the team and all interior rushers with 6 sacks and 32 pressures. Edge rusher Carl Lawson is second with 4 sacks and 24 pressures.
They rotate 10 players up front with just Williams, Lawson and John Franklin-Myers playing more than 50% of the snaps.
In his fourth season, Williams is finally playing at the level many expected when he was the third overall pick in 2019. He is hard to block 1 on 1. He has good upfield quickness and uses his hands well. He powers through contact and plays through blocks well to get to the ball. He is not a long-armed monster like Chris Jones or an athletic freak quite like Aaron Donald, but you have to account for him on every play… And he aligns at a variety of spots along the interior. Lawson is a speed to power effort rusher with little wiggle or bend. Franklin-Myers is a versatile player who has inside-out position flexibility with good length and movement skills. DT Sheldon Rankins is an active player with good quickness and instincts. They don’t have a mismatch edge rusher, but they have high hopes for first-rounder Jermaine Johnson, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury. He has a prototype frame and good athletic traits to work with, but he only had three pressures in the 98 snaps he played prior to his injury. Undersized speed rusher Bryce Huff actually leads the team with a 20.5% pressure rate in just 73 rushes. Overall, this is a solid group who plays hard and comes in waves, who will make their opponent work for 60 minutes.
The Bills have allowed the second-fewest sacks in the league (11) despite being blitzed at the sixth-highest rate (30.9%).
Only Dion Dawkins, Ryan Bates and Rodger Saffold have started every game this season. RT Spencer Brown has missed the halves of two games and missed last week entirely. He is questionable for this week with an ankle injury. David Quessenberry has filled in for him the last game and a half. OC Mitch Morse missed part of Week 2 and all of Week 3.
Morse is their best and most consistent player up front. He is a very good athlete for the position and a sound technician. He shows very good agility as a puller and finding second level blocks. LG Saffold is still an above average athlete and excellent with his hands. He is not a power player. RG Bates has just adequate size and length, but he is good with his punch and plays angles well to make up for lack of raw power. Quessenbery played adequately in place of Brown. He plays with good fundamentals but struggles to anchor vs. power. LT Dawkins has good initial quickness and foot speed, but he is not a pretty-bodied, smooth technician. He is more brawler than polish. This is a sound, well-coached unit which plays well enough to let Josh Allen shine. They do not overwhelm with power or athleticism, but they don’t whiff or allow many free runners. And when they do, Allen often bails them out.

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Bills’ Receivers vs. Jets’ Secondary

The Jets are ranked fifth in yards per pass play allowed and interception rate.
They have only allowed 17 completions of 20+ yards, which ranks fourth, while facing some of the top receivers in the league. The majority of those completions were from the TE or slot. Only one play did an outside receiver make the play behind the corner, and the other deep shot completion was a miscommunication between the corner and FS.
Their four starters in the secondary have played almost every snap together this season. Overall, their defense has started only four unique lineups, which is tied for the second-fewest in the league.
Sauce Gardner plays primarily at LC and D.J. Reed at RC. Both will line up in the slot along with Michael Carter II.
Gardner is tied for the league lead with 12 passes defensed, living up to his draft status. He has rare length for the position and very good speed. He’s not real fluid in his hips or transition. While he is built to play press-man he has adjusted well to playing more zone and off-man. He positions his body well when the ball is in the air and uses his length well at the catch point. He doesn’t turn it down, but his tackling could be much better. D.J. Reed played for HC Robert Saleh when he entered the league in San Francisco. He’s undersized and not suited for full-time duty on the outside. He has very good feet, hips and short area quickness, and his plus instincts help cover some for his lack of size. If the Jets are vulnerable, it is from the slot, where Carter II will give up some air and over the middle where there are some natural voids in their zone coverages.
Stefon Diggs has been the Bills’ most targeted receiver from the slot and has produced big numbers with 34 catches for 436 yards (fourth in NFL) and four TDs (tied for first). Slot Isaiah McKenzie has three TDs from the slot, and Josh Allen has thrown 11 of his 19 TDs to slot targets. Expect the Bills to attack Carter II.
The Bills might test Reed more deep than he has been so far this year. There is no one better to do that this year than the combo of Allen and Gabe Davis. The Bills lead the league in yards per attempt, and Davis leads the league in yards per catch and air yards per target.

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Zach and Garrett Wilson vs. Bills’ secondary

Zach Wilson ranks 34th in the league in both completion% and QB rating. They have tried to protect him and play conservatively, but when he has had to be a volume passer, he has made too many poor decisions. He has elite athleticism, twitch and arm talent. He can make wow throws on the move. However, he is too quick to leave a stable pocket and misses too many simple plays. He’s confident in his arm and he’s not afraid to make tight window throws. He gets too jittery in the pocket and gets lazy with footwork when he senses any pressure. It doesn’t help that they have had to mix and match the OL, and he has seen too many free runners. It’s way too early to write the verdict on Wilson. They have a good variety of weapons around him, and they need some time to work together.
Their second first-round pick this year, Garrett Wilson, is leading the team in team target share (21.4%), receptions (34), receiving yards (429) and 20+ yards catches (5). Wilson is long and lean with elite acceleration. He’s not a smooth or polished route runner, but he has the quickness to really snap in and out of breaks. He is strong after the catch, but he can get bounced around navigating traffic. He needs to build a rapport with Zach so he can get in his field of vision when he scrambles.
On paper, this is not the game for him to get healthy. The Bills rank in the top 5 in most defensive categories, including first in interception rate, third in QB rating against, and fourth in sack rate despite blitzing at the lowest rate in the league (12.1%).
If they aren’t already good enough, All-Pro CB Tre’Davious White is expected to be activated this week, although they have not announced if or how much he will play. One other question mark is the availability of safety Jordan Poyer, who injured his elbow last week. Poyer has four interceptions despite missing two games already.

Extra Points

The Jets struggled to run the ball last week against New England in their first game without rookie Breece Hall. They had a season low 51 yards and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry. They acquired RB James Robinson from the Jaguars after the injury, but he had just 17 yards on five carries in his first game. We’ll see how much more he will be involved after his first full week in New York.

Bills’ Keys to Victory

Attack the Jets from the slot and over the middle with Diggs, McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox.
Get in Wilson’s face early.

Jets’ Keys to Victory

Win the battle in the trenches to negate the Bills’ advantage at QB.
They must run the ball effectively and keep Wilson from having to drop back more than 25 times.

WATCH MORE: Bills' Defense Needs to be Ready vs. Zach Wilson

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