Analysis
11/30/22
5 min read
Bills vs. Patriots DFS Thursday Night Showdown
The Bills have won two straight games and overcame some interceptions from Josh Allen. Allen has thrown seven of his 11 interceptions in the last five games. The only team the Patriots beat with a winning record this season was the Jets, and their wins haven’t been impressive. Last year, these teams split games in the regular season, with the Bills winning by 30 points in the postseason.
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Vegas Line: Bills -5.5
Over Under: 44.5
Notable Injuries:
Bills: TBD
Patriots: TBD
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
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Bills Offense vs. Patriots Defense
- Allen averages 7.8 yards per attempt, 8.8 air yards per attempt and a 5.6% pass touchdown rate.
- The Patriots allow 6.8 yards per attempt, 8.7 air yards per attempt and a 4.2% pass touchdown rate.
- New England began the year playing a lot of man coverage. However, they have gone to zone coverage in recent weeks.
- In the last two seasons against the Patriots, Allen has three games with more than 300 yards passing, three touchdowns and two games with less than 160 yards passing and only one touchdown.
- The full-time players in the Bills' passing offense are Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary.
- Diggs will be the main target for Allen, and the Patriots have struggled to defend him in the past.
- Against the Patriots with Allen at QB, Diggs averages 9.9 targets, seven receptions, 84.3 yards and .3 touchdowns.
- Davis has scored in the last two matchups against the Patriots, however, he has failed to get more than 40 yards receiving.
- McKenzie’s speed gave the Patriots issues last year.He had 11 receptions, 125 yards and a touchdown in the one game he played more than 50% of snaps.
- Knox has scored touchdowns against the Patriots in the past but has not found real production in the passing game this season.
- When Singletary had more than 50% of the snaps against the Patriots, he had 18 touches in each game.
- The other players running routes for the Bills are Khalil Shakir, Quintin Morris, James Cook, Reggie Gilliam, Nyheim Hines and Tanner Gentry.
- Singletary has the lead role in the running back room, and Cook has mainly been utilized in blowouts.
- Allen seems to be back to being the goal-line running back, but with his elbow injury, I don’t believe that has been by design.
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Patriots Offense vs. Bills Defense
- Mac Jones averages 7.6 yards per attempt, 7.8 air yards per attempt and a 2.6% pass touchdown rate.
- The Bills allow 6.7 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt and a 3.6% pass touchdown rate.
- The only game Buffalo used a high amount of man coverage was against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.
- This Bills defense will be without Von Miller, however, there is a chance they get Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa back into the lineup.
- Against zone coverage, Jones averages 6.4 yards per attempt, 6.4 air yards per attempt and has yet to throw a touchdown.
- Rhamondre Stevenson leads in target share against zone coverage, and Jakobi Meyers is the only other player with more than 15%.
- Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith have a 10% target share against zone coverage.
- DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne all ran more than 60% of the routes with Meyers’ injury last week.
- Tyquan Thronton runs around 30% of the routes but rarely gets targeted.
- Stevenson will dominate the running back room with Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris as the players seeing backup duty.
- The Bills have given up 4.1 yards per carry on the season, but in their last five games, it’s been 5.0 yards per carry.
Overall Thoughts
Allen has not looked like himself in recent weeks, and when he escapes the pocket, he has not tried to throw it down the field. This causes him to run more, and I expect him to run away from the Patriots’ pass rush plenty in this game. Diggs will continue to see heavy targets, and Davis will be a featured player near the red zone. However, I don’t believe they have ceiling games with the limitations on Allen’s elbow. Singletary has gotten more work recently, and I anticipate similar touches against the Patriots' defense.
Jones played his best game of the year last week, and it was not enough to get it done against the Vikings. This Bills' pass rush isn’t as strong as earlier in the year, but their secondary can still hold the passing attack down. Stevenson will have plenty of work and will be the main threat if win the Patriots this game.
Bills vs. Patriots DFS Multiplier Pool
- QB Josh Allen
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson
- RB Devin Singletary
Bills vs. Patriots DFS FLEX Pool
- WR Stefon Diggs
- QB Mac Jones
- WR Gabe Davis
- WR Jakobi Meyers
- WR Isaiah McKenzie
- TE Dawson Knox
- WR DeVante Parker
- D/ST Bills
- TE Hunter Henry
- K Tyler Bass
- K Nick Folk
- D/ST Patriots
- TE Jonnu Smith
- RB J.J. Taylor
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