NFL Analysis
1/12/25
7 min read
Bo Nix's Magical Rookie Season Is Over, But Broncos Future Looks Bright
There is a reason why no rookie quarterback in NFL history has ever started a Super Bowl. In fact, only five rookie quarterbacks have ever started a conference championship game and their combined record is 0-5. The NFL Playoffs are played at a different speed and more often than not, rookie quarterbacks struggle in that situation.
That was the case for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in Round 1. They started the game off with a haymaker, connecting with Troy Franklin on a deep touchdown to take a 7-0 lead. But Buffalo then scored 31 unanswered points and dominated the game on both sides of the ball. That wasn’t unexpected as the Bills are the No. 2 seed in the AFC and were 8.5-point favorites going into Sunday.
Nix finished the game with just 144 passing yards on 22 attempts. And if you remove the first drive of the game, Nix was just 11-20 for 82 yards in the remainder of the game. He led the team in rushing yards (43 yards), but his game just wasn’t anywhere good enough against a Super Bowl-caliber team.
Denver snuck into the playoffs only after the Kansas City Chiefs rested every meaningful player in Week 18. Denver lost three of their final games of the season, and their only win came against Carson Wentz and KC’s backups. The Round 1 playoff loss will sting for every Denver fan, as they have not won a playoff game since 2015. But the Broncos have to be highly encouraged for what is to come.
Bo Nix’s Rookie Season
It wasn’t a surprise to see Bo Nix selected in Round 1 last year. But it was a bit of a shock to see him go at pick No. 12 to the Broncos. The former Oregon quarterback posted massive numbers in his final season, but there are some concerns about his accuracy and decision-making heading into the NFL.
Nix answered a lot of those questions during his rookie season, leading the Broncos to a 10-7 record. It was their first double-digit win season since 2015, and Nix was firmly in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race for most of the season. Nix racked up 33 total touchdowns and over 4,000 yards of offense. There have only been two quarterbacks ever to throw 29 or more touchdowns in their first season: Bo Nix and Justin Herbert.
Was his rookie season all-time great? No. Sean Payton did a good job of not exposing his rookie quarterback and giving him a bunch of easy throws to get him into a rhythm. If you were to look at his season-long passing chart, you would see an absurd number of attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage.
However, as the year went on, Payton opened up the offense and we Nix making more plays down the field. You could tell that Payton was gaining confidence in his rookie quarterback and the offense was much more explosive down the stretch.
That didn’t play out in the playoffs as the Bills forced Nix to make some tough throws in the middle of the field. But again, that’s what happens to rookie quarterbacks in the postseason. Opposing coaches take away your strengths, and you are forced to make quick decisions and make accurate throws into small windows.
Nix’s rookie season was a wild success, even if it didn’t translate into a postseason win. But for the Broncos to continue their upward trajectory, they are going to need to put the right pieces around Nix if they want to contend for a Super Bowl any time soon.
What’s Next For The Broncos?
The Broncos took on $85 million in dead cap after releasing Russell Wilson, $53 million which occurred in 2024. They’ll still be on the hook for $32 million in 2025, but this is the final year of dead cap for Wilson for the Broncos. Even with $32 million still on the books, Denver has more than $48 million in cap space, and they can easily free up another $20 million after restructures and releases.
Denver will own a top-20 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but they have one of the best assets in the NFL on their roster; a good quarterback on a rookie contract. Nix will count for just $4.2 million against the cap in 2025 and only $5.07 million in 2026. Denver’s window is just starting to open up again, and with a bunch of cap space and draft capital, the Broncos will have a much more talented roster in the upcoming seasons.
The No. 1 goal for the Broncos this offseason is to surround Nix with weapons. Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. both had nice seasons for Denver, but those can’t be their only two options. One obvious spot that could be upgraded is the tight end position. All of the tight ends on their roster combined for just 480 receiving yards this year. That’s simply not enough. Finding a dynamic tight end that can stretch the middle of the field and make plays after the catch should be a priority for the front office. Luckily for Denver, the 2025 draft has some first-round-worthy tight ends that feel like perfect fits for Payton and Nix (Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland).
Receiver is obviously a need as Sutton is the only player that can reliably beat one-on-one coverage. Adding another dynamic playmaker who can take advantage of man-to-man coverage could greatly raise the ceiling of the offense. This isn’t the best free-agent class when it comes to receivers, but adding a veteran like Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, or De’Andre Hopkins seems plausible.
But the most likely upgrade the Broncos will make this offseason is at running back. Javonte Williams is set to become a free agent, and it feels like a foregone conclusion that he’ll leave this offseason. Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime are fine players, but neither player threatens a defense in any real way.
The Broncos have bigger needs than a feature running back, but don’t be surprised if that’s where the big upgrade comes in the offense. Adding an Ashton Jeanty to the offense via the draft could help the Broncos become more balanced and would take some of the pressure off Nix. It’s also possible that they use some of their free-agent cap space on a veteran back, but there is no Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or Josh Jacobs in this class.
Denver has to be aggressive this offseason. They have a three-year window here with Nix on a cheap contract. While his playoff performance was rough, his regular season production shouldn’t be tossed away. He had some monster performances despite many believing the Broncos could finish in last place in the AFC West.
Despite the playoff loss, the Broncos are in a good spot. The defense should be great again next year, and the offensive line has the pieces to be one of the best in the league. We know that Sean Payton is a fantastic head coach, and he’ll continue to put Nix in the best situation. But the front office of the Broncos can’t play the long game here. It’s time to go out and put a Super Bowl-caliber roster around Nix before it’s too late.
