Analysis
11/14/23
6 min read
Buffalo Bills Offense, Josh Allen Unlikey to Fix Turnover Problem Midseason
Stop turning the ball over. Please, Buffalo. We are all begging you to stop.
Unfortunately, our cries fell on deaf ears on Monday night.
The Buffalo Bills inked another chapter in their turnover saga with a loss to the Denver Broncos. A game that should not have been close came down to a field goal-penalty-field goal sequence that let the Broncos walk away with a 24-22 win, all because the Bills could not stop giving the ball away for free.
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Turnover Woes
The Bills turned the ball over four times, and they did so in every way you can imagine.
James Cook fumbled on a short reception on the game’s first play. The infinitely frustrating Gabe Davis dropped a perfect pass that fell into the hands of a Broncos safety on the next drive.
Then, Josh Allen threw a deserved interception on an out-breaker to Deonte Harty during a two-minute drive at the end of the first half. If things couldn't get any dumber, Allen fumbled in the third quarter on a flubbed handoff to Cook right after the offense crossed the 50-yard line.
He picked it up and kept running 😱
📺: #DENvsBUF on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/J3bHxYOoK2 pic.twitter.com/HyNpmoA1sQ— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2023
That doesn't include Cook fumbling again in the fourth quarter on a breakaway run, only for the ball to bounce right back into his hands. The Bills scored a go-ahead touchdown four plays later, but they were oh-so-close to losing that chance with another careless turnover.
Cook being lucky enough for the ball to bounce back to him was almost like God's way of stepping in to say, "Enough. You can't lose like this."
Of course, the Bills found a different, even dumber way to lose anyway, so much for divine intervention.
Games like this are all too familiar for the Bills this year. It's not a one-off thing. The Bills have been letting teams hang around and throwing games away all season because they can not hold onto the football.
Buffalo's Offense Isn't Broke
What's frustrating is it flies in the face of everything else the Bills’ offense is doing. When it doesn’t give the ball to the other team, the Bills' offense is as good as ever. Seriously. It doesn't feel that way because of the turnovers and their record, but Buffalo can move the ball at will.
The Bills are first in offensive success rate at 54.1 percent. They're one of only three teams above 50 percent, alongside the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Allen's 54.5 percent success rate ranks second among all quarterbacks. We've seen him blossom into a surgeon in the underneath area, and he's still a monster throwing down the field. The Bills run game — a pain point for past versions of this team — carries a 45.5 percent success rate. That's good for third in the NFL.
By explosive play rate, the Bills rank 11th (11 percent), but they can stay ahead of the sticks better than any offense in the league.
That's a drastic shift from the early Allen breakout years, where explosive plays carried an up-and-down operation. Allen and the team around him have grown into a different force than they were before.
They've undergone the same kind of successful identity shift we always praise. It’s a similar shift to the Kansas City Chiefs last year after trading away Tyreek Hill or the Los Angeles Rams the year before when they acquired Matthew Stafford.
None of it matters right now because they are addicted to giving the ball to the other team.
After Monday night, 17.3 percent of the Bills' drives have ended in a turnover. Only the Las Vegas Raiders are worse. The Chiefs and Eagles join the Bills in being a turnover-prone elite offense, but we've been having those conversations with those offenses, too.
The Bills are just the worst of the bunch, and their mistakes have been particularly back-breaking because the defense has been one of the worst units in the league for a month now.
Allen Won't Change
The obvious truth is that a lot of it boils down to the quarterback. Allen is fantastic in many ways, but he's always been like this and always will be. Allen leads the NFL in turnovers since he entered the league.
Most games with 3+ turnovers since 2018 including playoffs 😳
Josh Allen: 10
Baker Mayfield: 10
Sam Darnold: 9
Jameis Winston: 9 pic.twitter.com/88Pi2yCnzY— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 14, 2023
You might think that's heavily influenced by his first two seasons, but Allen also leads the league in turnovers over the past two seasons. It's just who he is at a certain point. He's Zoomer Brett Favre.
That's not a criticism, though. It's more of a descriptor than anything. In the aggregate, Allen’s best moments are more than worth the headaches.
Allen is the main reason this offense has any life. Besides Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid (kind of), the receiver group is desolate. The offensive line only looks as functional as it does because Allen gets rid of the ball and manages the pocket with the best of them.
Even the ground game is boosted by Allen's contributions and everything the Bills do with RPOs to get the most out of Allen's skill set.
The offense works because Allen is playing like a superhero, not because it's exceptionally well-designed like the Detroit Lions’ or stockpiled with All-Pro weapons like the 49ers’.
However, Allen dragging the offense to elite territory comes at the cost of him forcing plays. When Allen is operating in that mode, you get arm punts vs. the Jets and instant interceptions to open two-minute drills like he did on Monday night.
That's the cost of doing business when asking a volatile quarterback to carry a team with a slim margin for error on offense and a defense that can't stop Russell Wilson in the year 2023.
No Help Is Coming
To that end, it's hard to imagine how the Bills fix their turnover problem. Allen will always be this guy if he has to be. Reinforcements aren't coming on offense, and the scheme isn't changing before the end of the season, so chances are Allen has to be that guy. The defense won’t get any better with Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano out for the season, either.
This might be who the Bills are: an old, incomplete team sitting atop Allen's shoulders. Save for a miracle, they don't have much choice but to live by the sword and die by the sword with their quarterback of chaos.
Derrik Klassen is an NFL and NFL Draft film analyst with a particular interest in quarterbacks. Klassen’s work is also featured on Bleacher Report and Reception Perception. You can follow him on Twitter (X) at @QBKlass.
