NFL Analysis
8/20/24
6 min read
Buy or Sell Bo Nix's Preseason Hype Train
There is a lot of excitement around Bo Nix. Denver’s first-round pick has completed 76.7 percent of his passes, which ranks sixth among quarterbacks with at least 10 passes this preseason.
It’s easy to get hyped about successful rookie performances in the preseason, especially in a year with so many of them drafted and playing early. After two games, Nix has been declared one of the preseason standouts, and the buzz around him has grown.
The Denver Broncos themselves have leaned into it.
Nix isn't officially Denver's starter (Nix was officially named the starter just days after this was posted), but it appears inevitable he will beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.
This has led to Nix’s preseason being framed as sensational. And that’s where we get a bit divorced from what has happened on the field. Nix might be a productive quarterback in a Sean Payton offense, but that has yet to be proven, especially in the way some have framed it.
Short Completions
Let’s start with the completion rate. It’s a nice big number, which looks great. Any completion percentage that starts with a seven will draw some eyes. Nix completed eight of nine passes (88.9 percent) in the preseason game against the Packers, which is even cooler.
But let’s dive into those. To start, while Nix played with Broncos starters, it was against a Packers defense that did not play most of its starters and sat back in a passive version of Cover-3 for much of the game (eight of Nix’s 12 dropbacks).
Against Green Bay, Nix had an average depth of target of just 3.8 yards, per TruMedia. His average depth of completion was 4.5 yards past the line of scrimmage. Among 74 quarterbacks who threw at least five passes in preseason Week 2, his aDOT ranked 68th (Wilson was 67th and Stidham was 69th).
This carried over from the first preseason game. Nix had a higher aDOT against the Colts (7.1) but still only had a 4.9-yard average depth of completion. Both his aDOT and average depth of completion are near the lower end of rookie quarterbacks this preseason, while Nix has the second-most dropbacks of the group.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but if that’s the style of play that continues for Payton, Nix, and the Broncos — think late-career Drew Brees — then it limits the rookie quarterback's margin of error. For the offense to be successful, the completion percentage has to be high.
It stands out as more of an issue for Nix and the Broncos (rather than, say, Jayden Daniels, who is next to Nix on the chart above after spending most of his preseason snaps throwing RPOs and screens) because this was Nix’s profile coming out of college.
Last year at Oregon, just 66.4 percent of Nix’s passes traveled past the line of scrimmage. That was the third-lowest figure among quarterbacks in the draft class. He had the best accuracy and completion percentage numbers to the short and intermediate areas of the field, but he was also throwing there less often than some of the other passers.
Building an offense around that type of passing profile requires a specific plan that needs so much to go right for it to hit its ceiling. So far, that hasn’t been the issue.
Nix has averaged 0.34 EPA per play and a 50 percent success rate in finding holes in zone coverage. But that might not be as easy in the regular season against more complicated defensive looks.
Pocket Movement
One of Nix’s best traits is his ability to throw on the move. There’s an ease with which he can twist his body and accurately deliver the ball. That’s been on display this preseason, for better or worse.
Bo Nix has always made it look real easy to throw on the move. Plenty of flexibility in his arm to just whip it across his body like this and pin it on the target. Not a tough throw really but it's good to make the easy stuff look easy! pic.twitter.com/aJusN7VhyV
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) August 19, 2024
Nix spent most of his first preseason game shuffling his feet around and going off-platform when it was not necessary, often making a play harder than if he had just set his feet properly.
This throw irritated me more than any of the other rookie mistakes I've seen so far.
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) August 12, 2024
Nix knows the in-breaker on the numbers is the right throw but takes two steps forward for no reason and disrupts the timing of the throw + makes it harder since he's now off-platform. pic.twitter.com/bXcDVWsR91
That mostly settled down in the second preseason game, but there was still some frantic play and fleeing of the pocket before it was needed. There was a 10-yard scramble from empty on a first-and-20 when Nix ran out of the pocket while there was no danger of pressure against a three-man rush.
A touchdown was called back because Nix ran well past the line of scrimmage before he threw the pass on a third-and-3 when there was room to pick up the first down with his legs.
Nix has also been praised for his ability to play on time and within rhythm. That’s kind of been the case, but still in a different way than expected.
For a shallow, quick-hitting passing game, getting the ball out quickly would be one of the hallmarks. Nix does have a quick release, but he’s averaged 2.67 seconds to throw, and only 36.7 percent of his attempts have come within 2.5 seconds of the snap. That average time to throw is the 10th-highest among rookies this preseason, and only Jack Plummer has a lower aDOT, with a higher average time to throw.
If Nix does get a bit more jittery in the pocket when things start to condense in the regular season, it could be more difficult to get to some of the check-down options Nix has opted for this preseason.
However, there was an effort to get him out on the move in a controlled environment during the second preseason game with bootlegs and play-action on half of his dropbacks. There’s a path to success there, but it's narrow. The New York Giants rode bootlegs, unexpected scrambles, and a league-low aDOT to the playoffs in 2022 with Daniel Jones.
Nix might become a successful quarterback as early as this season, but it’s difficult to claim that from what we’ve seen so far in the preseason — especially in how it’s been talked about so far.
There’s enough to like but also some concerns that might not be answered until the regular season. It’s a plus that Sean Payton believes this will work and appears ready to have a system in place for success to be attainable.
We’ll see how that works, and we should all want to see a bit more before suggesting it does.
