NFL Analysis
12/27/24
10 min read
Buying or Selling Every Team in Current 2024 NFL Playoff Picture
The holiday season is a great time to enjoy primetime games with the family, but it also marks the end of the NFL regular season. The playoff picture is getting clearer with each passing game, and the list of available playoff spots shrinks. Teams currently on the playoff bubble have to win and get some help to reach the postseason.
With most of the playoff races close to being called and the seeding within each conference being the biggest issue, we're set to start projecting what will likely be the playoff field. Only one team on the bubble in the NFL's playoff picture has higher than 14 percent odds of making the postseason with only two weeks left.
Tampa Bay is one of five teams still in the hunt but not in the playoff picture. We're buying or selling every team's chances of winning the Super Bowl in that picture but did not include the Buccaneers since Atlanta is leading the NFC South.
Which teams can actually make it to February and win?
Buying Or Selling NFL Playoff Teams
Patrick Mahomes has now thrown for 245 passing TDS ..most by anyone in their first 8 seasons. He played exactly one game in his rookie season. pic.twitter.com/cf5lHzHOIh
— trey wingo (@wingoz) December 25, 2024
Buying: Kansas City Chiefs 
No surprises here. The team chasing a three-peat still sits in pole position for the top overall seed in the NFL, and they'll have home field throughout the playoffs.
With Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the NFL's top-scoring defense, the Kansas City Chiefs are justifiably the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again.
Selling: Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best vibes teams of the season, getting the most out of castoffs like Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones, as well as underrated defenders like Byron Murphy and Andrew Van Ginkel. They're as well-coached as anyone, and their high-end stars make them dangerous. But can the 30th-ranked passing defense and sixth-least efficient run game win in January?
It's hard to imagine. Brian Flores and Kevin O'Connell have been masterful, but the talent hasn't yet caught up to their abilities. Darnold's penchant for reckless turnovers offsets Minnesota's third-best turnover rate just enough to doubt its viability in the season's biggest games.
Currently in the midst of a Jared Goff montage, had to stop and appreciate this.
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) December 25, 2024
BEAUTIFUL play design by Ben Johnson pic.twitter.com/nlYMAhX6ZB
Buying: Detroit Lions
Buying the Detroit Lions as a contender feels a bit wrong because their defensive talent is so young, and they do not have Aidan Hutchinson. Their offensive firepower and schematic advantages are vastly superior to all besides the Chiefs. It doesn't feel impossible for Detroit to rip off a playoff run where it wins 45-42 every game.
Injuries and timely playmaking will ultimately determine whether the Lions can finally break their franchise curse. Getting Brian Branch fully healthy and avoiding costly turnovers are musts. Getting home-field until the Super Bowl will help Jared Goff avoid an ugly cold-weather meltdown, as we've seen throughout parts of his career.
Selling: Baltimore Ravens
If the Baltimore Ravens are to win the Super Bowl this year, it'll be on the back of the franchise's best offense in team history. Lamar Jackson is playing at a new high, and having Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman have certainly helped. But the Ravens' defense hasn't shown that it can match the offense's upside.
Despite having the league's 10th-best scoring defense, the devil is in the details of Baltimore's defensive metrics. It's a bottom-three passing defense and has forced only 10 interceptions all season. Bend-don't-break defenses with the 25th-best turnover rate always fail in the playoffs, and Baltimore will have to survive powerful attacks that can expose the lack of individual talent across the defense.
Selling: Washington Commanders
Even on the heels of a thrilling win against the Eagles, the Washington Commanders are among the easiest sell candidates this NFL postseason. It's nothing against Jayden Daniels or the job Dan Quinn has done, but most of this roster still shows the remnants of a bad roster that finished with the second-worst record of 2023. A fantastic rookie quarterback and an excellent coaching staff are now propping them up.
The margins will soon change, and the lack of individual talent at several key positional groups will show. As soon as Washington steps into the second round, they'll be out-talented by a wide margin. This will serve as the foundational year for what should be a decade of contending within the NFC.
Wow that’s crazy… anyway, here’s Josh Allen handing the Chiefs’ their lone loss as he evades half their defense. https://t.co/tU35r1Dscp pic.twitter.com/bPWCyL2Wkg
— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) December 26, 2024
Buying: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have a similar profile as the Ravens, but we're taking the opposite stance on one of the NFL's most cursed franchises. It has nothing to do with the exhausting Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen conversation but rather how the Bills overcome some of their roster limitations. Buffalo's offensive attack is as dangerous as any team's in the league, thanks to Allen's rushing ability and fearlessness.
The defense has also taken the bend-don't-break approach, but it's doing better at forcing turnovers. With the second-best turnover rate and benefitting from the third-best average starting field position, the defense has survived better than the Ravens' unit. Will that translate to the playoffs when it's a one-game sample? Maybe not, but the Bills have executed a winning play style.
Selling: Pittsburgh Steelers
Some of the names have changed in Pittsburgh over the last few years, but the same problems exist. Russell Wilson's play has come back down to Earth in previous weeks, and he may no longer be the team's best quarterback come January.
The running game is still inefficient, and the passing defense is too reliant on forcing interceptions to overcome the lack of talent around Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joey Porter Jr.
The Pittsburgh Steelers need more playmaking and higher floor players across the roster. Their top-heavy nature continues to expose a good but unthreatening playoff roster.
Selling: Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos made one of the more remarkable turnarounds from last season. Relying on an efficient ball-control offense to ease the pressure off a premier defense, they produced a top-10 team in most metrics. Now, the eye test certainly doesn't match the raw stats where the offense is the 10th-best scoring unit, so the skepticism becomes reality here.
With a running game struggling to average just over four yards a carry and a rookie quarterback averaging only 6.4 yards per attempt, the Broncos have the least-threatening offense in the playoffs. As well as the defense has played, there's no chance the Broncos can win the Super Bowl with such a conservative and inefficient offense.
Like this if you love Saquon Barkley.
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 25, 2024
RT this if you love Saquon Barkley.
Reply that you love Saquon Barkley.@saquon | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/0h0Whzyn49
Buying: Philadelphia Eagles
When healthy, the Philadelphia Eagles still have arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. The addition of Saquon Barkley behind the league's best offensive line has been as impactful as anyone could've hoped. Everything else on the team has fallen into place as the offense has been efficient working off Barkley.
The weaknesses of previous years have been mitigated with a ball-controlling offense that can easily manufacture explosive plays. If Jalen Hurts is healthy, the Eagles have the best chance of any team in the league of beating the Chiefs. And if the Chiefs lose before the Super Bowl, the Eagles should be favored regardless of their matchup.
Selling: Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons, the lone team in the playoff picture to actually bench their veteran quarterback for a rookie, is easy to doubt.
They're below average in scoring on both sides of the ball, and now, Michael Penix Jr. has to find his footing against some of the NFC's best in the postseason. It's safe to say the odds are long, and for good reason.
Selling: Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud's rookie year was exhilarating, and it seemed as though the Houston Texans fell into a gold mine between their new franchise quarterback and head coach DeMeco Ryans. The future is still bright, but things feel quite different a year later. Houston's roster is nowhere near Super Bowl-caliber at several positions, and injuries ravaged its depth.
Without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs available, Stroud and company have been limping far more than excelling. Baltimore's Christmas Day beatdown of Houston was only a sign of what's to come against the higher-end AFC foes in the playoffs. Houston will go back to the roster-building drawing board this offseason.
GOT IT.#ProBowlVote + #JordanLove#ProBowlVote + #JaydenReed pic.twitter.com/RZRXAE5mHM
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 24, 2024
Buying: Green Bay Packers
There are next to no questions about Green Bay's explosive offense at this point. Between Matt LaFleur's scheming ability, Jordan Love's physical capabilities and willingness to chase chunk plays, and a tremendous corps of big-play threats at receiver, the Green Bay Packers can outscore anyone in one game. What they might lack in consistency and experience is made up for in raw talent.
The defense is more concerning on an individual level, but the unit has simply worked. Despite dealing with a flurry of injuries, mainly being without star cornerback Jaire Alexander for nine weeks, the Packers rank as a top-10 unit in virtually every meaningful category. They simply need timely playmaking from unexpected sources when it matters most.
Selling: Los Angeles Rams
This season has brought more turbulence than what the Los Angeles Rams could've prepared for, struggling with injuries across the offensive line that disrupted their first five games. Since its Week 6 bye, Los Angeles has been one of the better teams in the league. It's on a four-game win streak right now and adapted incredibly well to its opponents in that stretch.
Despite being healthier now and finding their groove, this young Rams defense still has a lot to overcome in the postseason. Struggling to stop the run or get off the field quickly, the Rams' offense has too much pressure on it to score efficiently. The Rams are more dangerous than their record suggests, but they're not a Super Bowl contender.
Selling: Los Angeles Chargers
Everyone knew exactly what Jim Harbaugh would do as the Los Angeles Chargers' head coach, and he's perfected his management style and culture-setting. The Chargers are tough-nosed and detail-oriented. With the NFL's second-best scoring defense and best offensive turnover rate, they don't beat themselves often with backbreaking mistakes.
Despite the perfect pairing of Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, the Chargers' roster just has too many talent limitations to believe in come January. Their lack of playmaking on offense will inevitably end this team's season, and it might come in the Wild Card Round in Buffalo.
