NFL Draft
4/16/25
9 min read
Buying or Selling Expected Risers and Fallers in 2025 NFL Mock Drafts
The NFL Draft feels like a fluid stock market watch at times. as the ebbs and flows are always moving. However, the reality is that only so much new information comes out for NFL front offices between the end of the regular season and late April. The Combine and pro days are part of it, but scouts have been talking about prospects for years by the time the 2025 NFL Draft begins.
The bigger change is that evaluations are finalized and made more public. Professional mock drafters end up being vehicles for how teams value certain players, and then all mock drafts tend to fall within a certain range of outcomes. With 257 players set to be selected, there are many risers and fallers throughout the three-month process.
But can we accept that all 2025 NFL Mock Draft stock movement is real? By tracking the latest movement from mockers around the world and comparing those trends to intel, our own evaluations, and historical trends, we're buying and selling the late changes.
Buying or Selling 2025 NFL Draft Stock Movement
Buying: Jalen Milroe Rising
When Jalen Milroe first declared for the 2025 NFL Draft, it seemed as though he made the decision feeling confident an NFL franchise would invest highly in him. While Milroe's 2024 season at Alabama wasn't amazing, his raw tools are uniquely dynamic.
However, a rough Senior Bowl week and Combine showing as a passer set him back. One month ago, his stock dipped to about 55th overall in user mock draft.
The NFL seems to disagree with Milroe being that far down their board. In fact, teams in the late first round to the middle of the second round are showing interest. This would be a huge development since teams that invest a higher pick are more likely to give Milroe a longer leash to develop before moving on.
Fox Sports insider Jordan Schultz shared some of Milroe's recent and upcoming visits. He listed the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks. Collectively, these teams have four picks between the 18th and 52nd overall selections. This is a sensical range for him to be selected as the fourth passer off the board.
The Browns and the Giants at the top of the second round look especially intriguing if they pass on Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart with their No. 2 and No. 3 overall pick, respectively. Milroe is risky, but his traits are off-the-charts good.
Selling: Denzel Burke Falling
It's hard to think of a 2025 prospect who hurt his stock as much as Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke did with his play this season. Burke returned to Ohio State for his senior season, calling it a "Natty or bust" campaign, but produced a nightmarish year for the bulk of it.
Instead of being a late first-round prospect, he's now hoping to land as a top-100 selection. As more data rolls in each week from NFL teams and mock draft experts, his average draft spot is the 112th pick, per NFL Mock Draft Database.
Though he allowed 34-of-47 targets to be complete for 413 yards and two touchdowns, only eight of those receptions came in his last six games. Six occurred against Michigan and Notre Dame.
His bad game against Oregon ended up defining his season in an unfair way. While his playmaking was gone, producing only two interceptions and two pass breakups, Burke also surrendered only two penalties. His missed tackle rate plummeted from 22.9 percent in 2023 to 7.5 percent in 2024.
PFF found his run defense, tackling, and pass rush grades to be the best of his career last season. His coverage grade rebounded to above 2022 levels, and his four-year snapshot of play is drastically more impressive as a whole.
There's always a fine line in NFL Draft projections between punishing a player too much for small sample sizes and using those examples as what's indicative of what's to come. Burke has a high floor as a rotational option and should compete to play on Day 1. NFL teams will realize this and take him higher than users are.
Buying: Quinn Ewers Stagnating
After being one of the highest-rated quarterback recruits of all time, Quinn Ewers failed to deliver on his perceived immense ceiling while at Texas. He was still successful and produced a highlight tape that could rival what most pocket passers can dream of, but the consistency wasn't there. That includes being available, and durability is a tough question mark to overcome without being on the field.
Instead of being a late first-round prospect, he's now hoping to land as a top-100 selection. As more data rolls in each week from NFL teams and mock draft experts, his average draft spot is the 99th pick, per NFL Mock Draft Database.
Despite completing 64.9 percent of 1,135 passes for 9,128 yards, 68 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions over three seasons, Ewers is viewed as a developmental option for the middle rounds. The 99th pick falls at the end of the third round into the compensatory pick range.
For quarterbacks, this is a dangerous pigeonhole. Teams aren't invested enough to roster a struggling young passer for long, and usually, their only available way out is to star in the preseason. This is a surprising outcome for Ewers because of his natural talent, but I'm buying that teams are wary of his durability and pathway to improvement.
Selling: James Pearce Jr. Dropping
In a time where pass-rushers have an all-time high value, why has James Pearce Jr. seen his stock drop from being the potential top pick in this class ahead of 2024 to a fringe first-rounder? While it's fair to wonder whether his 245-pound frame can handle being a three-down starter and stay as effective against the run as he was at Tennessee, this isn't a loaded class of more dominant options in front of him. Pearce checks more boxes of someone who will be productive and efficient than not.
Whether it was his 4.47 4–yard dash, setting career-bests in quarterback hurries, run stops, and tackle efficiency, Pearce's junior season did nothing to show he's not a quality prospect. Despite this, his average overal mock projection has plummeted to 31st and few people have him within their top 10 overall players. That's a huge consensus drop.
I'm not entirely buying that Pearce falls out of the first round. The middle of the first round has several desperate franchises that make sense for a Day 1 impact player on the edge. It's especially strange when Pearce has been punished for being small when Jalon Walker is the same weight and isn't a full-time edge-rusher.
There might be some fatigue with Pearce's name, and his raw sack total dropped a bit in 2024. Otherwise, feels like we're overthinking Pearce as a top-20 prospect.
Buying: Luther Burden Falling
While Pierce might be suffering some fatigue and physical concerns, Luther Burden is another household name who we've seen commonly mocked in the top 10 picks for a year. However, that's where his commonality with Pearce ends. Burden's on-field play was not at least as good as the prior year, and there are different concerns about whether he's a glorified offensive weapon who must be in an ideal situation to make a difference.
While it's impressive that Burden ran a 4.41 40 at 206 pounds and is strikingly similar to Deebo Samuel, concerns over his overall game exist. Evaluators wanted to see his role grow in 2024, but instead, he became more of a slot specialist who didn't become more well-rounded, failed to expand his route tree, and created fewer big plays as defenses honed in on him.
It's not that Burden is bad or that it was an awful year, but the offense didn't benefit from targeting him downfield more often in the same way. Burden was solid, boasting an elite drop rate and contested catch rate and forcing more missed tackles than ever before. However, it's striking to see his yards cut almost in half on 25 fewer receptions.
He's now most often mocked in the second round, marking a significant drop since January. The NFL seems cold on the top of this receiver class, and Burden falling would make sense, given everything we've heard over the last few months.
Selling: Jaylin Noel Skyrocketing
Burden is dropping, and that's going to push all receivers down a bit. There's a real chance only two receivers are taken in the first round, so any second or third-tier receivers will suffer as well. The only way someone like Virginia Tech's Jaylin Noel skyrockets is if there's a panic run earlier than expected.
Mock drafters have pushed Noel from a fifth-round pick to a borderline top-50 selection. There's a good argument as to why Noel would be a Day 2 pick, including above-average acceleration, excellent deep speed, lower-body explosiveness, and true versatility where he can play inside or out. Some of his advanced numbers are more impressive than Burden's.
It's possible we will see Noel go right after or even ahead of Burden, depending on how the interviews went. However, slot-heavy players with limited size and ability to create post-catch generally aren't taken before Round 3. Noel forced only seven missed tackles during the last two years, and his average yards per route run and yards after the catch marks are uninspiring.
That makes him especially dependent on winning before the catch, which he does well. But building an offense around a 5-foot-10 player with 29 ½ inch arms is rare.
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