NFL Analysis
9/27/24
8 min read
Buying or Selling Which NFL Playoff Contenders Should Hit The Panic Button
Is it time to panic if your team is winless or sitting with a 1-2 record entering NFL Week 4? Not all records are equal, so we will explore six teams in difficult situations already. Even if the first month of NFL action hasn't gone as expected, the next three months might offer brighter days.
Whether it's due to injuries, poor play, luck, or a difficult schedule, we're buying or selling whether it's panic time for six teams that entered the year with playoff hopes. Wins are needed, even for teams we're selling the panic for, but some solutions can bring victories.
Which teams can handle the pressure, and which ones are destined to see their season end in a blaze of fire?
Which Teams Should Panic Entering Week 4
Buying panic: Jacksonville Jaguars 
There are 0-3 AFC teams, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are the most surprising. With the league's second-worst point differential, Jacksonville is broken on both sides of the ball. Ranking 30th in scoring and 28th in points against, next month will have a huge impact on the future of this coaching staff and roster.
Many of the problems will be pinned on QB Trevor Lawrence, who does deserve criticism. He's 14th in on-target percentage and has the fourth-highest dropped pass rate. Still, he has the third-worst bad throw rate, trailing only Bryce Young and Caleb Williams. There aren't enough good plays to overcome the bad ones, and Lawrence's career passer rating dipping below Daniel Jones' is a sign there's something amiss with his game.
That said, the problems run deeper than Lawrence's inconsistencies. Josh Hines-Allen, Foyesade Oluokun, Devin Lloyd, and Ronald Darby have been the only defenders graded as average or better. Key defensive linemen Travon Walker and Arik Armstead have been dreadful or invisible, leaving the secondary high and dry with the lack of pressure on quarterbacks.
There aren't many answers left for this coaching staff to try because the talent on the roster just isn't there. This team needs a complete refresh.
>> READ MORE: Jaguars Need an Overhaul to Save Lawrence
Bijan Robinson stonewalls Nick Bolton and gives Kirk Cousins the time to get to the throw. pic.twitter.com/oq6Yfb8VBU
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 24, 2024
Selling panic: Atlanta Falcons 
The Atlanta Falcons were expected to make the playoffs and potentially push for a deep NFC run. Signing Kirk Cousins and hiring a new coaching staff hasn't fixed the offense's issues, though. Ranking 26th in scoring, the Falcons have often been disjointed.
However, it's not time to sell off your Falcons stock and panic. Atlanta faced three excellent defenses in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Starting off 1-2 wasn't the worst-case scenario.
Yes, the offense doesn't look great, but the unit is nearly average in moving the ball between the 20s. Cousins has been more efficient in the last two weeks than his debut game, and things will get easier as they get more into their NFC South schedule in the next seven weeks. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson must get the running game where it was expected, but at least Cousins is progressing as he learns the scheme.
The biggest reason for optimism is that Raheem Morris has definitely impacted the defense. While the front seven is only okay, the secondary is playing much better than expected. Cornerbacks Mike Hughes and Clark Phillips III are thriving next to A.J. Terrell and the stellar safety combo of Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III.
Morris has to manage in-game decisions better, but there's been enough growth across the board to feel more comfortable with Atlanta than not.
Buying panic: Cincinnati Bengals 
I was worried about the Cincinnati Bengals before the season began, and they've shown little reason to feel optimistic moving forward. Losing to Washington on Monday night further exposed a young and struggling defense, and the offense still cannot function beyond Joe Burrow making difficult throws.
This team needs big changes.
Being in the AFC North further complicates the Bengals' outlook. Dropping their Week 1 game against New England might've been just a bad early-season loss that can be written off, but it's been prophetic instead. Cincinnati doesn't have a scheme that can reliably create easy yards on the ground or the talent on defense to stop the run.
Burrow can only do so much. He's around league average in accuracy rate, drops, and bad throw percentage. Could he elevate his game more? Absolutely, especially since only Josh Allen has been pressured less often. It's more likely he gets worse, and this evens out.
Barring a defensive improvement that helps the unit go from bad to at least top-15, the Bengals are done for this season.
>> READ MORE: What Happened to The Bengals?
The touchdown Dak Prescott threw to KaVontae Turpin in the fourth quarter of last week's Dallas Cowboys game had a completion probability of 18.5%, per @ZebraSports.
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) September 24, 2024
It was the 3rd-most improbable catch of Week 3 and the 8th-most improbable of the season so far.
(via NFL Pro) pic.twitter.com/jgr7IVTd89
Selling panic: Dallas Cowboys 
The NFC East looks a little more difficult than expected in 2024 as the Washington Commanders are finding their footing with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Dallas, who lost Dan Quinn from their defense to Washington, has not done well to fill the void left by their former defensive coordinator. Despite Mike Zimmer's impressive career building high-end defenses, this unit has been terrible since Week 1.
Now ranked 30th in scoring allowed and 32nd in rushing yards, the Dallas Cowboys defense hasn't gotten off the field or stopped hemorrhaging big runs. But relief appears to be on the way because of favorable scheduling. The Giants, Steelers, and Lions fill out Dallas' schedule before its Week 7 bye, and the 49ers and Eagles are the only teams with an especially good ground game left on its schedule.
With the top-ranked passing game carrying the sixth-best scoring offense, the Cowboys are equipped to rely on Dak Prescott and mitigate its defensive weaknesses as often as possible.
Getting DeMarcus Lawerence healthy and looking for a deadline trade for a better nose tackle are realistic pathways to improvement for the defense. The running game has been bad but also not part of their strategy, so it's not a huge area of concern.
>> READ MORE: Who's to Blame for Dallas' Struggles?
Really don't think Rams QB Matthew Stafford gets enough credit for his pocket movement.
— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) September 24, 2024
Plays like this show Stafford's ability to buy extra time and avoid incoming pass rushers. pic.twitter.com/rIuNHFiL6W
Buying panic: Los Angeles Rams 
For as well as Matthew Stafford has played, and he's been great, the Los Angeles Rams are in for a long year. Everything around Stafford has fallen apart again. The mixture of injuries and the loss of Raheem Morris has devastated this roster.
Kyren Williams averages three yards a carry, and Blake Corum has barely seen the field. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are already on the shelf for an indefinite amount of time. The team heavily relies on Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, and Tyler Johnson in their absence.
The defense has seen solid contributions from youngsters Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young, but the secondary hasn't held up its end of the bargain to complement them. Offenses are moving the ball up and down the field against the Rams' porous run defense and ill-equipped secondary.
The roster flaws can't overcome the rash of injuries suffered, so it's full-on panic time in LA.
Selling panic: San Francisco 49ers 
Injuries continue to be a consistent issue for the San Francisco 49ers, with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey, and Charvarius Ward either out or not fully practicing thus far.
The team's 1-2 start includes two surprising one-score losses at Minnesota and the Rams. Still, it's not time to think the 49ers are in for a world of hurt in the coming weeks. Upcoming home matchups include New England, Arizona, Kansas City, and Dallas before their Week 9 bye.
By no means is that an easy stretch, and it doesn't get much better after the bye from a difficulty standpoint. However, San Francisco will theoretically have several of its All-Pros back at some point. This has been a competitive team that has fallen short at the end, in large part because top playmakers aren't available.
Because Kyle Shanahan has this team as a well-oiled machine, it's easy to expect them to play at a high level without several of their best players. They'll survive for a short time but will hit the ground running in the coming weeks as the stars hit the field.
