NFL Analysis
10/6/24
4 min read
Caleb Williams Proves Doubters Wrong With Breakout Performance
Chicago Bears fans have been patiently waiting for Caleb Williams' breakout game. They finally got it on Sunday.
The Bears dominated in a 36-10 statement win against the Carolina Panthers. Williams had the best game of his career, completing 20-of-29 passes for 304 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also had 34 yards on five carries. RBSDM.com credited Williams with a terrific 0.42 expected points added per play.
Williams was getting hammered as a potential bust after his first few NFL games but has started to settle in in recent weeks. The Bears are 3-2 with back-to-back wins and are in the thick of the NFC playoff race, with the offense starting to find its footing.
It could be that the Bears just played a pair of weaker opponents in the Panthers and Los Angeles Rams the last two weeks. Still, Williams looks like a much more confident quarterback, and this has resulted in some impressive drives and plays from the Bears.
Firing ON All Cylinders
Simply put, Williams and the Bears are doing a much better job of taking care of the football.
After throwing four interceptions in his first three games, Williams hasn't produced a takeaway in the last two wins. In fact, the Bears have a 5-0 turnover differential in their last two games.
Williams finding his deep ball has certainly helped, too.
The deep ball had been one of Williams' biggest issues four games into his NFL career. According to TruMedia, through his first four games when throwing 20 or more yards downfield, Williams had completed just 4-of-23 passes for zero touchdowns, three interceptions, and a 12.3 passer rating. It was the second-lowest passer rating on deep throws in the NFL, ahead of only Bryce Young, who had a passer rating of 0.0.
Williams was perfect when going deep in Sunday's win. He completed all three of his passes 20-plus yards downfield for 89 yards, two touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Perhaps Williams' best throw of the game came just before halftime. With DJ Moore getting inside leverage, Williams led him further inside to win a contested catch on a deep shot to go up 27-7 heading into halftime.
The throw 🤩
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 6, 2024
The catch 🤩
📺: #CARvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/LY8XUhroJs
A significantly improved rushing attack is also helping the offense get going. D'Andre Swift was supposed to be one of Chicago's biggest free agent signings, but he got off to a slow start. He was a big reason for the team's success in each of their last two wins, producing more than 100 total yards in each of the last two weeks.
Swift averaged 5.8 yards per carry while racking up 165 total yards and this 36-yard touchdown in the Bears' win against the Rams in Week 4.
D'Andre Swift finds the end zone for his first Bears touchdown! 🔥 @Fedex pic.twitter.com/vbtPSxNH1C
— NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024
Meanwhile, the Bears are starting to give second-year RB Roschon Johnson some extra run. The 225-pound running back hasn't been an efficient runner, but he's been effective near the goal line, scoring three touchdowns in the last two games.
An improved rushing attack has helped Williams be more effective in the play-action pass game. According to TruMedia, the Bears quarterback has completed 12-of-19 play-action passes for 161 yards, one touchdown, and an interception during the last two games.
The offensive line is also doing a better job of helping Williams stay upright. He was sacked just once in Sunday's win against the Panthers after being sacked 16 times in the first four games.
Everything is clicking for the Bears offense right now. It may have taken a few weeks, but Bears fans are starting to see the long-term vision of what their offense can become as Williams continues to get acclimated to the NFL.
Chicago's Defense Is Legit
While the offense is starting to click, the Bears' defense could make them a legitimate NFC playoff contender.
The Bears had the 12th-best defense by DVOA heading into Week 5, but a dominant performance against the Panthers should help them climb up the rankings. Not only did the defense produce three turnovers, but they also had four sacks while allowing just 10 points and 292 total yards.
Chicago's defense is loaded with playmakers like Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, Montez Sweat, Andrew Billings, and several others. With so much talent on a defense that just keeps getting better, the Bears have the talent to play complimentary football and set up their rookie quarterback for success.
Neither side of the football can let their foot off of the gas, however. The Bears have the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, so they'll need to use this momentum to keep producing wins as the schedule gets more difficult.
