NFL Analysis
2/21/24
7 min read
Caleb Williams vs. Drake Maye: Who Is This Year's Top Quarterback?
While all signs point to USC’s Caleb Williams being the first quarterback taken in the 2024 NFL Draft, that doesn't mean he will be everyone’s QB1 throughout the draft process — and it doesn't mean he'll be the best quarterback drafted.
Williams and Drake Maye have different aspects that give them the nod for certain evaluators. Today, we'll break down aspects of each player's game to determine who this season's QB1 should be.
2024 NFL Draft: Who Is the QB1?
Arm Strength
Williams and Maye have impressive arm strength.
While neither player enters the “rare” territory of arm strength (think: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes), Williams and Maye have more than enough arm to make any throw on the field. On tape, both make throws down the field and outside of the numbers with plenty of zip.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
In just this one play against UCLA, Williams showed off so many of his strengths. With his mobility and off-platform arm talent, Williams delivers a 50-55-yard dot to the wide receiver with excellent touch, ball placement and plenty of arm strength to put this football on the money.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
Here’s another throw in the same game where Williams shows off his arm strength on a ball to the boundary from the opposite hash. These are throws that separate the NFL's best quarterbacks. The velocity and ball placement are key in keeping defenders out of plays and playing on time in the offensive structure.
While both quarterbacks have comparable arm strength, Maye gets the slight edge for me due to how often he had to throw with velocity outside of the numbers in North Carolina's offense.
Maye routinely made difficult throws from the opposite hash and down the field that required impressive velocity to beat defenders to the catch point.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
Maye’s ability to stay in rhythm and handle pressure while delivering accurate balls outside of the numbers is one of his most impressive traits. Maye has legit arm strength that shows up on film when he can't step into throws or set his feet with a clean base.
His ability to play out-of-structure and off-platform while not losing ball velocity speaks to just how strong of an arm he has.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
The deep ball is another aspect of Maye’s game that was put on display often at North Carolina. He has no issues throwing the deep ball with loft or on a line if need be.
Above, you can see his deep ball velocity while being pressured. Maye can consistently maintain velocity when under pressure due to how strong of an arm he has, even when he’s unable to really get his lower half engaged.
Accuracy and Ball Placement
Accuracy and ball placement are different.
While I have Williams as the more accurate quarterback, I think Maye’s ball placement shines more consistently. What does that mean?
More often than naught, Williams will be more on-target with his throws, likely leading to higher completion percentages and easy completions. But Maye tends to be the better quarterback when placing footballs in precise locations where only his receiver can make the play or where a receiver can maximize yards after the catch.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
Maye needs to do a better job of cleaning up his lower-half mechanics to raise his accuracy ceiling. On the other hand, Williams must improve on his placement when throwing to moving targets and into tighter windows.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
Mobility, Playmaking
In this area, Maye and Williams are extraordinary. In today’s NFL, quarterbacks who can't create off-schedule and out-of-structure normally sit at home during the playoffs.
Maye and Williams are exceptional athletes, who can beat you through the air or on the ground, too.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
I’m interested to see how both players test at the combine and/or pro days. Based on the tape, I see Maye as a slightly better athlete with his legs, but Williams' ability to throw off-platform and with different arm slots is an absolute treat to watch.
Both players have a dynamic ability in their game — they can create with their legs in the pocket and out of the pocket. While neither player is solely looking to run when things are muggy in the pocket, Williams and Maye can destroy defenses with their running ability if they need to.
Mechanics
For such talented quarterbacks, Maye and Williams aren't the cleanest in terms of mechanics. Lower-half mechanics tend to get a bit squirrely for Maye and Williams in clean pockets and when pressured, affecting their accuracy and leading to some dangerous misses.
I prefer Williams' quick motion and release to Maye’s. Williams' ability to get throws out ultra-quick makes him a dangerous weapon in the quick-passing and RPO game. Maye's motion and release are by no means a major issue, but Williams gets the edge from a mechanical standpoint.
Still, both need development from a footwork standpoint.
Processing, Decision Making
One of the most important aspects of evaluating pre-draft quarterbacks is how well they process and what decisions they make from clean and muddy pockets. Maye and Williams had their struggles in these areas in 2023.
Williams, coming out of a heavy RPO system at USC, did a nice job of reading and playing in rhythm in the quick-passing game. At times, Williams struggled when asked to read things out in the middle to deep third of the field, and he took unnecessary risks far too often down the stretch.
There are many examples on Williams' 2023 tape where he turns down open receivers in the middle portion of the field to take the deep shot that is covered or where he looks to create with his legs, leading to negative plays or throwaways. Williams will need to improve on turning down layups to reach his ceiling.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
For Maye, many of the same issues are what led him to struggle down the stretch.
The biggest concerns from his tape? He tried to do too much and took unnecessary risks. Maye’s ability to extend plays is tremendous, but it often led to poor decision-making, which caused turnovers or turnover-worthy plays. Maye finished the year with nine interceptions, and many came from poor decision-making deep into plays.
While everyone in today's NFL should want an aggressive quarterback, there’s a difference between being aggressive and careless. And Maye’s 2023 season had far too many careless plays for a quarterback with his talent.
— Connor Livesay (@ConnorNFLDraft) February 20, 2024
Verdict
Separating these quarterbacks is difficult. For me, mobility and athleticism are usually the easy differentiating factors in quarterbacks, so Williams and Maye, both being great athletes and excellent creators made giving one the edge exceptionally tough.
As of today, Maye is my QB1 and my second overall player in the draft. Williams is right behind him at QB2 and my fourth overall player. This class truly has a 1A and 1B quarterback.
What gives Maye a slight edge is his experience in playing in a more pro-style offense at North Carolina, compared with the RPO-heavy offense Williams played in at USC. While both quarterbacks can fit in any offense they are drafted into, Maye’s floor as a starter is slightly higher than Williams'.
But both have high-level traits to develop into eventual top-10 NFL quarterbacks.
