NFL Analysis
12/15/24
6 min read
Chiefs' Fatal Flaw Exposed After Mahomes Injury, Could Cost KC Three-Peat
The Kansas City Chiefs are used to being perennial Super Bowl favorites, but their struggles on the offensive line could prevent them from winning a third straight championship this season.
Those problems up front led to a big scare during Sunday's win against the Cleveland Browns. Patrick Mahomes was taken out of the game due to an apparent ankle injury in the fourth quarter, forcing backup QB Carson Wentz to finish the game.
Patrick Mahomes limps off after getting tangled up on a failed 4th down pic.twitter.com/WnIgmsscfN
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 15, 2024
Injuries can happen to any quarterback, but Mahomes threw under duress all day on Sunday. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he was pressured on 54 percent of his dropbacks in the win, which was the highest pressure rate he's had in a game since 2020.
The Chiefs have a superstar quarterback, established playmakers, and a legitimate defense. However, the offensive line has become such an issue that it's holding them back from being a serious threat to win another Super Bowl this season.
Trending in the wrong direction
After years of keeping Mahomes upright in the pocket, the Chiefs offensive line has started to trend in the wrong direction in recent weeks.
Along with a season-high pressure rate on Sunday, Mahomes has been knocked around a lot in recent weeks. He's been hit 65 times in the last seven games, according to The 33rd Team's Dan Pizzuta.
All of that contact while passing was bound to lead to some injuries, but what's even more concerning is that most of this pressure is coming without extra rushers.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mahomes has only been blitzed on 26.7 percent of his dropbacks this season. However, Mahomes throws under pressure at a higher rate when teams aren't blitzing him, throwing under pressure 32.5 percent of the time when he isn't blitzed.
That poor-quality offensive line play has hurt the offense as a whole. Heading into Sunday, the Chiefs ranked just 14th in passing offense by DVOA. The offense isn't producing video game numbers like it used to, breaking 28 points just twice all season. In fact, they're averaging just 21 points per game in the last six games.
That scoring could drop even further if Mahomes isn't able to suit up in the coming weeks. The Chiefs could be conservative with Mahomes after locking up the AFC West, and backup QB Carson Wentz hasn't looked like a starting-caliber quarterback in years.
It's been a few years since the Chiefs produced points in bunches, but there were still answers for them once the playoffs came around. That doesn't feel like the case as much in 2024, given just how bad the offensive line has looked.
Where Are the Issues?
It's not like the Chiefs lack talent up front, either. Center Creed Humphrey is a two-time Pro Bowler and is having another strong season. Guard Joe Thuney is also a three-time All-Pro who was named a first-team All-Pro for the first time last season.
However, the Chiefs' main problem isn't the interior of the offensive line. Their tackles are raising serious concerns, and the situation isn't getting any better.
Wanya Morris has struggled mightily to protect Mahomes' blind side at left tackle. He's allowed a team-high 33 pressures this season, including a terrible performance just a couple of weeks ago against the Las Vegas Raiders, where he allowed eight pressures on Mahomes.
Wanya Morris seemed to frequently lose the same way. Attempting a punch with his outside hand, getting his hand swiped away, and then giving up the edge. The #raiders have been a tough opponent for him so far. #chiefskingdom #lvvskc pic.twitter.com/kMJqacer5A
— Steeler Thoughts, Chief Feelings (@stcf715) November 30, 2024
Right tackle Jawaan Taylor hasn't been much better. He's allowed 32 pressures and a team-high seven sacks and is also one of the most penalized players in the league, with 11 penalties called against him this season.
The Chiefs were hoping that rookie Kingsley Suamataia could pick up some of the slack, but he's struggled in limited opportunities. Despite playing just 107 pass-blocking snaps this season, the second-round rookie has allowed 13 pressures and three sacks. He was benched earlier this season and has continued to struggle when forced back onto the field.
Veteran D.J. Humphries, who was signed just a few weeks ago, was supposed to help with some of these issues. He was a former starter for the Arizona Cardinals but spent the last year rehabbing from a torn ACL he suffered at the end of last season.
Instead, Humphries struggled mightily in his first game for the Chiefs. He allowed five pressures and a sack against the Los Angeles Chargers, and was unable to suit up this week due to a hamstring injury. He looks like he still needs time to regain his footing to play starting-caliber football, but this injury could make things harder, and the playoffs are already creeping up.
Brutal Playoff Matchups
Poor tackle play is a killer in the playoffs, especially considering some of the top-tier pass rushers they could face in the postseason. Players like T.J. Watt, Von Miller, and Will Anderson Jr. could present brutal matchups on the edge, making Mahomes' life miserable in the pocket.
It's a huge weakness that the Chiefs don't seem to have an answer for, and that poor tackle play could doom the team's chances at a three-peat.
If the Chiefs want to make it through the AFC, their offensive line will have to weather the storm against some brutal defenses, and it doesn't seem like they have the talent to do so.
As it currently stands, the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Houston Texans appear to be the most dangerous mismatches for the Chiefs offensive line once the playoffs begin. All three of those teams rank in the top 10 in defensive DVOA, while the Steelers and Texans ranked in the top five in pass rush win rate heading into this week of games.
Even the Baltimore Ravens could be a real threat to the Chiefs in the AFC. While they've sputtered at times this season and lost the season opener to Kansas City, their defense still features some dangerous pass rushers like Kyle Van Noy, Nnamdi Madubuike, and Odafe Oweh.
Top pass rushers can almost single-handedly turn the tide of a game, and all of these top AFC contenders have them. That's a major concern for a Chiefs team that continues to squeak out wins, regardless of the opponent.
