Analysis
11/19/22
7 min read
Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Sunday Night Showdown
The Kansas City Chiefs will be without two wide receivers that have played a big role this year Mecole Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster. Patrick Mahomes is 6-2 against the Los Angeles Chargers in his career and averages 258 yards and over two touchdowns. When they first matched up, Mahomes had his season low on yardage and had a tough time moving the ball against the Chargers' defense.
The Chargers will likely get Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back this weekend. This will give Justin Herbert a much-needed boost in efficiency, as he looks to continue the streak of playing well against the Chiefs. Herbert also averages over 290 yards passing and over two passing touchdowns against the Chiefs. In their first matchup, Herbert had his second-highest passing total of the season.
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Vegas Line: Chiefs -7
Over/Under: 50
Notable Injuries:
Chiefs: IR: WR Mecole Hardman OUT: WR Juju Smith-Schuster, CB Chris Lammons
Chargers: IR: DE Joey Bosa, DB J.C. Jackson, T Rashawn Slater, DT Otito Ogbonnia, DT Austin Johnson, DT Christian Covington, DL Forrest Merrill, TE Donald Parham, WR Jalen Guyton, T Andrew Trainer, C Isaac Weaver OUT: TBD
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense
- Patrick Mahomes averages 8.0 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt, and a 6.8% pass touchdown rate.
- Against zone coverage, he averages 8.9 yards per attempt, 6.5 air yards per attempt, and a 2.5% pass touchdown rate.
- Against man coverage, he averages 7.3 yards per attempt, 8.5 air yards per attempt, and a 9.4% pass touchdown rate.
- The Chargers give up 7.1 yards per attempt, 8.2 air yards per attempt, and a 4.6 pass touchdown rate.
- They haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in two weekends, but I expect that to change.
- When they played Mahomes in Week 2, they played man coverage at a 58% rate and blitzed on just 25% of dropbacks.
- They do not have the pieces to do that, and in the last two weekends, they have played zone at over an 80% rate.
- Joey Bosa, JC Jackson, and four defensive linemen are currently on IR.
- Without Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore are expected to see more routes.
- Last weekend, ten different Chiefs players were targeted.
- Kadarius Toney saw two rushing attempts and five targets and was able to find the endzone last weekend.
- Justin Watson ran a route on 72.5% of the dropbacks but was only targeted on one play last weekend.
- Skyy Moore has not run over 30% of the routes in any game this season and only saw 30% last weekend.
- Travis Kelce will continue operating as the number 1 target for Mahomes.
- The Chargers have been great against tight ends that play the slot but struggle with tight ends that stay in line.
- Noah Gray has been the most utilized in-line tight end for the Chiefs.
- Gray also found the end zone this past weekend.
- The Chargers' run defense has been one of the worst in football this season.
- Isiah Pacheco saw 16 carries for 82 yards, and that was after losing a fumble early in their last weekend.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire was not used and only saw two targets against the Jaguars.
- Jerick McKinnon saw a carry and eight targets this past weekend.
- This backfield looks like a two-headed monster, with Pacheco leading the carries and McKinnon operating as the third down back.
Chargers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
- Justin Herbert averages 6.4 yards per attempt, 6.3 air yards per attempt, and a 3.6% pass touchdown rate.
- These numbers have been without Keenan Allen for every snap since Week 1 and Mike Williams since Week 7.
- The Chiefs give up 6.9 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt, and a 5.5% pass touchdown rate.
- Their pass touchdown rate is concerning and shows teams are beating them through the air in the red zone.
- 16 of their 19 passing touchdowns given up have been in the red zone.
- The Chiefs' defensive line has been impressive lately, averaging over a 10% sack rate in the last three weeks.
- They have played more man coverage and blitzing in the last three games.
- Herbert has been one of the top quarterbacks against man coverage this season but one of the worst against zone coverage.
- Getting Allen back will give him someone that will work the middle of the field and find the soft spots in zone coverage.
- I am treating Allen as if he will be at 100% because of the patience he took with coming back from this injury.
- I expect Mike Williams to be limited with the high ankle sprain he had in Week 7; however, Williams will have a size advantage against every corner of the Chiefs.
- In their absence, Austin Ekeler, Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and Gerald Everett have been the primary targets in the pass-catching room.
- Ekeler has seven receptions in every game since Week 6, but that is because he has been Herbert's primary target in zone coverage.
- Ekeler gets targeted on 37.6% of his routes against zone coverage this season.
- Since Week 6, Ekeler’s efficiency as a runner has taken a step back, and he has not had over 50 yards rushing in any game.
- The Chiefs' run defense has been bottom 10 in the league in yards per carry, but the players that have run for over 100 yards are Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry.
- They just dominated a Jaguars’ rushing offense that had been great in recent weeks.
- Isaiah Spiller has been Ekeler’s primary backup but averages 2.3 yards per carry.
Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Overall Thoughts
The Chargers’ defense does not have the players to slow down the Chiefs’ offense, and they will be able to get it done in many ways. We saw Patrick Mahomes target ten players last weekend, and I see that number being a high one. If the Chargers attempt the same man-heavy scheme from earlier in the year, this will be a blow-up game for Kadarius Toney, who was brought in as their mismatch. In addition, the Chargers don’t have the pass rush to contain Mahomes, so their numbers of blitzing heavily could show up here.
Justin Herbert will have his best performance of the year, and it will be from the impact of Keenan Allen coming back. The Chiefs’ defensive line will have the advantage on Herbert, and he will have to escape a ton of pressure. I don’t expect Ekeler to be a big DFS factor in this game because the two wide receivers take away a big target share from him. Allen has stated he wasn’t coming back until he was 100%, and I will treat him as such.
Multiplier Pool
- QB Patrick Mahomes
- QB Justin Herbert
- WR Keenan Allen
- WR Kadarius Toney
- RB Isiah Pacheco
FLEX Pool
- RB Austin Ekeler
- TE Travis Kelce
- WR Mike Williams
- WR Josh Palmer
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- TE Gerald Everett
- RB Jerick McKinnon
- K Harrison Butker
- K Cameron Dicker
- D/ST Chiefs
- TE Noah Gray
- WR Justin Watson
- TE Jody Fortson
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