NFL Analysis
11/27/23
4 min read
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Hopes Might Have Faded Away in Week 12
The Cleveland Browns entered Week 12 with a 7-3 record and control of their playoff destiny, comfortably sitting as the fifth seed in the AFC. And then they played their game.
Not only did they lose and fall to 7-4, but All-Pro DE Myles Garrett “felt a pop” in his shoulder and was seen with his left arm in a sling in the locker room following the game. Not only did their offense fail to consistently move the ball, but rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson left in the third quarter to be evaluated for a head injury. Not only did their defense cede 29 points to the Denver Broncos, but the Browns' top wide receiver suffered a rib injury on a hard hit in the fourth quarter.
Yes, the Browns are currently the sixth seed with the loss — one game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Broncos with six games to play in the regular season — but we must ask ourselves if Cleveland is soon to find themselves on the outside looking in for the 2023 playoffs.
Is Joe Flacco the Answer at Quarterback?
Cleveland signed veteran Joe Flacco to the practice squad following its Week 11 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers after working him out in the week leading up to the game. With Thompson-Robinson likely out because of a concussion in Week 13 and P.J. Walker showing no signs of being able to run an NFL offense, does the team turn to everyone’s favorite gunslinger to save their season?
After Flacco spent the first 11 seasons of his professional career in Baltimore, he spent a season with the Broncos before three seasons with the New York Jets, winning just three of 17 starts.
His 83.0 passer rating during those four years ranked 36th in the league, behind names such as Mitchell Trubisky, Davis Mills, Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett. Flacco's 1.8 touchdown-to-interception ratio ranked 27th in the league among qualified quarterbacks during that time. His total pass EPA per game ranked 52nd in the league between the 2019 and 2022 seasons.
So Cleveland is better off starting Walker or Thompson-Robinson when they're healthy, right? Thompson-Robinson has the worst pass EPA per game of quarterbacks to play more than two games this season. Meanwhile, only Mac Jones, Bryce Young and Zach Wilson rank worse than Walker (and, obviously, Thompson-Robinson). Any way you slice it, this team is in trouble at quarterback moving forward.
What About Cleveland's Top-Ranked Defense?
The Browns have ceded the fewest yards per game this season, 26 yards per game less than the next closest team. That said, an offense that struggles to consistently move the football places additional strain on the defense, as evidenced by recent performances against the Broncos (Cleveland gave up 29 points), Ravens (gave up 31 points) and Colts (gave up 38 points).
There are also recent injury concerns for two of the Browns' top players on defense, Denzel Ward and Garrett. Examining this unit closer, Cleveland employs the highest rate of man coverage in the league and blitzes at an above-average 29.5 percent clip.
That has been supremely effective when playing with a lead this season but has made them susceptible to chunk plays when an offense can get beyond the first level. We could see this unit struggle to maintain the same level of efficiency without an offense capable of keeping the pressure.
What About the Browns' Run Game?
The optimal way for a team to keep the pressure off its defense while fighting through inefficient quarterback play is to avoid long down-and-distance situations, most commonly achieved through an effective run game. Despite the big names on Cleveland's roster up front, the Browns rank 28th in yards generated before contact (1.21) and 18th in team yards per carry (4.2) this season.
Cleveland’s next four games come against the Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars, Chicago Bears and Texans, all of whom rank in the league's top half in yards allowed per carry, with all but the Rams ranking in the top 10.
Playoff Logjam in the AFC
While the Browns currently occupy the AFC's sixth seed, three teams sit with a 6-5 record, and the Buffalo Bills are in the mix at 6-6. Add in the Steelers at 7-4, as well, and there are six teams within one-and-a-half games of each other fighting for two playoff spots.
And it appears likely the Browns will quickly find themselves on the outs in the tight AFC playoff picture.
