NFL Analysis
11/10/24
5 min read
Colts Decision To Start Joe Flacco Over Anthony Richardson Has Been a Disaster
The Indianapolis Colts made a highly-debated change at quarterback by starting Joe Flacco the last two weeks, but the decision has been an unmitigated disaster that has crushed the team's playoff hopes.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen made the decision to bench second-year QB Anthony Richardson in favor of Flacco, presumably for the foreseeable future, ahead of the team's Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
Flacco took over a 4-4 team with hopes of sneaking into a wild-card spot in the AFC. Instead, the Colts have gone 0-2 with the veteran quarterback starting, including an embarrassing 30-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Instead of sticking with Richardson in hopes of letting him learn and develop, Steichen made a gamble with Flacco in hopes of reaching the playoffs. The worst-case scenario has happened, and it could be putting the Colts head coach on the hot seat.
Flacco's Nightmare Scenario
The reigning Comeback Player of the Year was supposed to spark the Colts' offense. Instead, he's consistently struggled to take care of the football, preventing them from finding consistency or momentum.
Flacco's box score stats from Sunday's loss don't properly tell the whole story about his struggles. He completed 26 of 35 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a fumble.
The advanced metrics aren't nearly as kind to Flacco. According to RBSDM, the Colts quarterback generated -11.7 total EPA with -0.28 EPA per dropback.
Flacco has now generated -28.0 EPA in the last two games. For reference, Richardson has had a -20.9 total EPA in the six games that he's played.
Turnovers have been a huge issue for Flacco during these last few games. Despite only playing a handful of games in 2024, he's tied for seventh in the league with a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.5 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. He's responsible for six turnovers in the last two games and has taken seven sacks. Richardson has been sacked just nine times in his six starts.
This baffling decision to start Sunday's game immediately put the Colts in a seven-point hole that they were unable to climb out of.
LET'S GOOOO, @Taronj11‼️
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 10, 2024
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/akSrbn7rf6
Flacco's lack of mobility compared to Richardson's may not have hurt the run game this week, thanks to a strong performance from Jonathan Taylor. However, it made their run game much easier to plan against last week against the Vikings. The Colts only ran for 68 yards as a team in that game, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry.
Following Sunday's loss, Steichen was asked about Flacco's future as the starting quarterback. His response didn't inspire any confidence in Colts fans hoping to see Richardson again.
It looks like Flacco will continue to be the starter, but the Colts' schedule isn't getting any easier. Their next two games are against two of the most talented defenses in the league, the New York Jets and Detroit Lions. Both teams have talented secondaries capable of baiting quarterbacks into bad throws.
Steichen doesn't seem interested in making another quarterback change, but depending on how the rest of the season goes, that might put him on the hot seat.
Shane Steichen's Hot Seat
The Colts came into the 2024 season with hopes of competing for the AFC South or at least a wild-card spot. Instead, they have suffered three straight losses.
According to The Athletic's NFL playoff projections model, the Colts had just a 33 percent chance of making the playoffs heading into Sunday. Their chances would likely drop even further with another loss.
NFL fans everywhere are beginning to call for Richardson to be put back in the starting lineup, but Steichen doesn't seem interested in giving the fans what they want. The outcry is getting so loud that Colts fans are calling for Steichen to be fired if Richardson isn't named the starter again.
This is only Steichen's second year as an NFL head coach, but the results aren't exactly inspiring confidence in the Colts fan base. The team failed to make the playoffs with a 9-8 record last season after a crushing Week 18 loss, and they're trending in the wrong direction in 2024 with three straight losses.
Winning football games could quickly silence those critics, but if the losing streak continues and Richardson continues to sit, fans will get even louder in calling for a change.
Will Richardson Play Again in 2024?
There's a chance that Steichen is playing the long game with Richardson, trying to protect him in the last few games against some talented defenses.
The Colts are in the middle of a four-game stretch against three of the toughest defenses in the league. The Vikings have the No. 1 defense by DVOA, while the Bills have the 12th-best defense, and the Lions are sitting at third.
With Richardson struggling to complete underneath throws, his confidence could have been shot even more going against such a difficult group of opponents. Instead, Steichen could be letting Richardson learn on the sideline with plans to make him the starter again in a few weeks once the schedule eases up.
Things will get much easier for the Colts in a hurry. They have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule, with multiple games remaining against some of the worst teams in football.
Giving Richardson the starting job back once the playoffs are out of reach with opponents like the Titans, Jaguars, and Giants could help him get back on track and give him some momentum heading into 2025.
That's a long-term view for a coach on the hot seat, however, especially with the postseason theoretically still within reach.
Either way, the Flacco experiment ended up backfiring, and the Colts need to do something drastic to sneak into the playoffs.
