Betting
1/26/23
5 min read
Conference Championship Underdog High, Low Picks
Josh Larky and Ben Wolby outline five Conference Championship Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take before this weekend’s games. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster LOWER than 4.0 Receptions
Chosen by Wolby and Larky
- He's been LOWER than this number in nine of 17 games (53%) overall.
- He's been LOWER in seven of the last games games, as well as in four straight.
- Over the last three games, JuJu Smith-Schuster has fewer than 10% targets per route run and a 10% target share. He’s had the same, or fewer, receptions than Kadarius Toney during this time.
- After Patrick Mahomes came back into the second half last week, Smith-Schuster saw fewer targets than Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
- Smith-Schuster saw just one target once Mahomes returned.
- While Smith-Schuster is the N0. 1 receiver in this offense from an optics standpoint - with the most routes run among WRs - Travis Kelce is the first read, and when on the field, Toney is dominating Smith-Schuster from a targets perspective.
- The Bengals allowed the fifth-fewest receptions per game to WRs this year, via The Edge.
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Brock Purdy LOWER than 219.5 Passing Yards
Chosen by Wolby
- The Eagles have allowed three 220 or more yard passers this season:
- Despite facing these QBs:
- Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, and Daniel Jones (twice)
- Brock Purdy has only topped this number in three of his games:
- Against Washington and Seattle – two very average pass defenses via Football Outsiders' DVOA
- And the Raiders, who had a bottom-3 pass DVOA
- The Eagles are the top-ranked team by pass DVOA.
- Dallas is ranked third, and Purdy went lower than 219.5 passing yards last week
- The 49ers are bottom-10 in pass rate over expectation.
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Isiah Pacheco HIGHER than 6.5 Receiving Yards
Chosen by Larky
- While Isiah Pacheco isn't much of a pass-catching back, this line is simply far too low.
- The past eight games, he’s reached six receiving yards in all but one.
- He's averaging 1.5 targets, 1.4 receptions, and 15.4 receiving yards per game in his past eight games.
- Mahomes' high ankle sprain likely means more dump-off passes when he's under pressure.
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Joe Burrow LOWER than 276.5 Passing Yards
Chosen by Wolby
- Joe Burrow is LOWER in five of six career playoff games, and was LOWER in nine of 16 games this season.
- QBs against the Chiefs are averaging only 220 passing yards, with 13 of 18 going LOWER than 276.5 passing yards.
- Now, with a hobbled Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City may not have as fast-paced of an offense as we’re used to.
- It’s possible Cincinnati will not have to pass as much as expected
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Deebo Samuel LOWER than 20.5 Rushing Yards
Chosen by Larky
- Deebo Samuel has been LOWER in nine of 15 games (60%) this year.
- He carried eight times for 52 yards in Week 1, and four times for 53 yards in Week 2.
- It's been downhill since, with five carries for just six yards in Week 3.
- He hasn't had more than four carries or 37 rushing yards since.
- Since returning from injury in Week 18:
- Week 18: one carry, four yards
- Week 19: three carries, 32 yards
- Week 20: four carries, 11 yards
- Setting this line at 20.5 yards when he’s probably getting three rush attempts implies insane efficiency.
- Overall, he's averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season, not seven or eight.
- Despite back-to-back games of 52 or more rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2, he's averaging just 17.8 rushing yards per game, which is lower than this line.
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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Conference Championship Underdog High/Low Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.
