Expert Analysis
1/10/25
5 min read
Could Patriots, Giants Have Tanked Better to Secure No. 1 Pick in 2025 NFL Draft?
How do you lose an NFL game on purpose?
That’s the question many frustrated New York Giants and New England Patriots fans have asked themselves during the last two weeks.
Given the current NFL format, in which the draft order is definitively determined in inverse order of the final standings, this question will come up more and more in future seasons.
There’s certainly a healthy debate about whether or not an NFL team should ever attempt to do such a thing, but let’s set that aside and focus instead on what is or is not possible in a practical manner.
The quick answer is you can’t guarantee that your team will ever lose a contest because you sure as heck can’t ask any player to go inside the white lines and perform in any way less than their best. That would be unethical and horrific on multiple levels.
So what can (many would say “should”) a team do when they are in a situation like the Giants were in Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts or, perhaps more notably, the Patriots in Week 18 when hosting the Buffalo Bills?
When Winning Backfires
As a reminder, in each situation, the aforementioned franchise was in pole position to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Giants and Patriots had two and three wins, respectively, so the calculus for most of their fans was clear: a late-season victory in a disastrous lost season was not worth lessening the value of having the top pick. From a fan standpoint, why would you do anything that hurts your ability to field a more competitive team next season in a “meaningless” game at the end of this season?
Perhaps left unsaid is that having the first pick, in particular, even more so than the value that comes along with it, represents hope to fans at a time when that is desperately needed.
Plus, the value is significant.
According to Albert Breer, the Patriots lost on Sunday and dropped from first to fourth, which was a loss of 1200 points on the draft value chart that most teams use. That is the equivalent of the 12th overall pick in the draft!
Conversely, by losing and moving up to No. 1 after the Patriots’ victory, the Titans went from the No. 2 overall pick to the top spot, which is the equivalent of 400 points on the chart, good for roughly the 50th pick, a still valuable slot midway through the second round.
While some will point out that the Patriots already have their franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, they are missing the mark. Even if New England doesn’t need a quarterback, they could have likely traded down with one of the quarterback-needy teams and secured a significant package of picks that could have helped supplement arguably the NFL’s worst roster.
That is why some fans booed as the Patriots took a knee to cement the victory, which felt like a loss to many of their loyal fans.
Could They Have Done More?
NFL teams can only have 48 active players suit up on game day. They can also have up to 16 players on the practice squad. So, what could an NFL team do to give themselves the best chance to lose while having their players play to the best of their ability? Play as many practice squad players as possible.
To do that, you need to get them on the active roster. For example, the Patriots put OC Ben Brown, SAF Jabrill Peppers, and WR Ja’Lynn Polk on injured reserve the day before playing the Bills. This allowed them to sign CB Miles Battle, DE Truman Jones, LB Monty Rice, and TE Jack Westover from the practice squad. They could have gone further.
Essentially, any player with any ailment could have been placed on the IR list. At this point in the season, they all have something bothering them. They could have then signed even more players, double-digit if they wanted to, to the active roster.
Then, to take it a step further, they could have started those guys and played them the entire game, or at least most of it. This would have had the dual benefit of seeing what they could do in an NFL game and almost assuredly ensuring that the Patriots would lose.
I’m not saying the Patriots should have done this — that is another conversation for another day. I’m just saying that if they wanted to achieve a specific outcome for the long-term good of the franchise, that would have been the best way to go about it.
Instead, they basically started the same lineup they had in recent weeks, although it should be noted that they replaced Maye with fellow rookie Joe Milton III after one series. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your perspective, Milton played well, and the Patriots won the game.
I have no idea what was or was not discussed behind the scenes, but this was also the second instance in three years of a coach possibly being aware of reports that he was likely getting fired and winning the season's final game, costing his franchise the top pick. Lovie Smith did the same with Houston in 2022. It’s probably not a good idea for that to leak if you are hoping to secure a loss.
Apropos of nothing, it is interesting that the same week in which Giants owner John Mara said, “If I had thought that we were tanking in either one of those games, I would have fired everybody…” that Eagles beat writer Zac Berman posted the following:
Again, whether or not it should be considered is a much different topic. The point is that it is doable if it is important enough to you.
