Analysis
12/9/21
5 min read
Daily Fantasy Week 14: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks
Welcome back to the Daily Fantasy: Love it, Need it, Hate it, Lottery Picks article for Week 14 of the NFL season. Last week we saw a slate with tons of attractive options at running back, with most of the high-owned guys having solid fantasy performances. A bunch of elite quarterbacks make a return to the main slate, as Week 14 looks like a good one.
Love It
Players in the “Love it” section are guys that we are excited to play in any format, regardless of the ownership that they may garner that week.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
In his return from a concussion, CeeDee Lamb saw 13 targets, and operated out of the slot and out wide. With Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup all healthy, the Cowboys like to use Lamb as a chess piece and move him around the offense. Lamb has shown an extremely high ceiling, with three games over 26 DraftKings points, getting all the way to 39.1 against New England back in Week 6.
Lamb gets a plus matchup this weekend against Washington, as they've given up the league's third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Washington's defense may have rounded a corner, as they've given up between 15-21 points in each of their past four games, en route to a four-game winning streak. Tampa Bay is one of the offenses that Washington stifled in this stretch. However, Dallas has an extremely potent offense when healthy. Lamb has shown an insanely high ceiling and should see the volume to get there on Sunday.
Need It
This section will contain guys who we believe are necessary when you are constructing a lineup for cash games. They are still viable in tournaments, but they aren’t necessary. We still like them as plays, but these guys may come with higher ownership, which could provide merit to fading them and going another route.
Taysom Hill ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Taysom Hill? In the "Need It" section? Yes, your eyes aren't deceiving you. If you're playing cash games this weekend, Hill should be your quarterback. Hill is fairly cheap on both sites, and his rushing ability gives him such a high floor. On last Thursday night against Dallas, he injured his finger and looked horrible. He threw 4 interceptions, and potentially cost the Saints a chance to win that ballgame. So why should you play him? Despite the poor performance, he had 27.66 DraftKings points! His rushing equity is so high that it makes up for his lackluster passing efficiency.
Enter, the Jets. The Jets have given up the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks. They also haven't faced the most daunting quarterbacks, as outside of Josh Allen, they matched up with Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, and Tua Tagovailoa. It's not pretty, but Hill should eat in this matchup with the Jets.
Hate it
Players in the “Hate it” section are guys that we do not want to roster that week in DFS for a number of reasons. They may have a bad matchup, they may be projecting to have too much ownership, they may be too expensive, or it could be a combination of the three.
Joe Burrow ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
Despite having a very solid year so far with six games above 20 DraftKings points, Joe Burrow is not on our radar this week. This has nothing to do with matchup. The 49ers are actually right in the middle when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They're 16th in the league, giving up 17.91 fantasy points per game. So if the matchup is fine, why don't we like Burrow?
Well, it comes down to his injury. Burrow has been limited in practice this week with a finger and knee injury. We saw him in a lot of pain last Sunday when he injured his finger, and we've seen other quarterbacks struggle with finger injuries this year. Hill, albeit having a good fantasy game due to his legs, looked poor throwing the ball last Thursday night against the Cowboys. Russell Wilson put up single-digit DraftKings point performances in his first two games back from his finger surgery and didn't throw a single touchdown. With other attractive options and Burrow's finger a question mark, we'd rather wait and see and let Burrow prove that he is healthy.
Lottery Picks
The Lottery Picks section contains players who we think have the upside to be in tournament-winning lineups. As well as having the ceiling to win tournaments, these players also won’t come with too much ownership.
DK Metcalf ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
With three performances under 7.1 DraftKings points in his last four games, and averaging 6.5 fantasy points per game over that stretch, you're probably wondering why we like DK Metcalf this weekend. When it comes to fantasy sports, and sports gambling in general, a good strategy is to "buy-low and sell-high." Metcalf definitely falls in the buy-low category, and his ownership should be fairly low. Seattle made it clear that they wanted to get Metcalf the ball last week, and he actually came very close to having a big day. He got a screen pass on the first play of the game, caught a deep ball out of bounds, got tackled on the 2-yard line, and had 2 end zone targets.
The matchup is middling, as Houston ranks 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers. However, Metcalf is an extremely talented player, and can win most matchups. With how involved he is, at his talent, we may not see him priced this low ever again. Metcalf was averaging 19.26 DraftKings points per game over the first five games of the season while Wilson was healthy, and perhaps Wilson is returning to form. Metcalf looks like a great tournament option this weekend.
