NFL Analysis
11/12/24
7 min read
Dak Prescott's Injury Forces Cowboys to Face Tough QB Decisions
The Dallas Cowboys got (expected) bad news about Dak Prescott on Tuesday, making the team's long-term outlook at the quarterback position one of the bigger looming decisions for the franchise.
Owner Jerry Jones announced during a radio interview on Tuesday morning that Prescott would undergo season-ending surgery on his injured hamstring.
Prescott received a four-year, $240 million contract extension just before the start of this season, keeping him in Dallas for the foreseeable future. However, things haven't gone his way since then, and he suffered a hamstring injury while the Cowboys tried to stave off the New York Giants for last place in the NFC East.
It's not just that it's been an injury-plagued year for the Cowboys. It's also that Prescott's injury is forcing Dallas into an uncomfortable conversation about the future of their quarterback position in the coming seasons.
Prescott's Year From Hell
Even before his season-ending injury, it had been a year to forget for Prescott.
The 31-year-old quarterback will finish 2024 with the worst passer rating of his career at 86.0. His 6.9 yards per attempt was the lowest since 2017, throwing for 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions in eight games.
Advanced metrics were even lower on Prescott than traditional box score numbers. According to NFELO, out of 44 qualified quarterbacks, Prescott ranked 29th in completion percentage over expected, 29th in success rate, 26th in adjusted net yards per attempt, and 27th in EPA per dropback.
As the highest-paid player in the NFL, those numbers just aren't getting the job done.
Prescott's struggles aren't all on him. A lack of talent around him on offense was a big reason for his struggles. The Cowboys gave another extension to star WR CeeDee Lamb, but the team lacks talent outside of their No. 1 receiver.
After Lamb, the top targets on offense are Jake Ferguson, Jalen Tolbert, and RB Rico Dowdle. Tolbert could eventually develop into a solid No. 2 or No. 3 receiver, and Ferguson has shown flashes as a strong receiving tight end.
However, the Cowboys have no depth at any skill position, particularly running back. Dowdle is an unheralded starting running back, while aging veterans Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook are the backups.
That lack of juice at the running back position has made the Cowboys one-dimensional this season. According to TruMedia, the Cowboys rank 26th in the NFL with just 2.59 yards after contact per rushing attempt and 29th with 3.8 total yards per carry.
Opponents have no problem defending against a one-dimensional offense, leading to the worst year of Prescott's career.
What Does the Future Hold?
The Cowboys are committed to Prescott, but that doesn't mean that there won't be ways out of his contract in the not-so-distant future.
Even if things go well in 2025, the Cowboys will need to at least consider the future of the quarterback position. Prescott will be 32 years old with two season-ending lower body injuries in his career next season, so monitoring his production will be important when evaluating his contract.
Prescott's $240 million extension will keep him in Dallas for at least the next few seasons, with cap hits of $89 million and $68 million in 2025 and 2026. Cutting or trading him would result in a $152 million dead cap hit in 2025 and a $62 million dead cap in 2026. Regardless of his production, there won't be any financial benefit to moving on in either of those years.
However, things change drastically in 2027.
The Cowboys could save $28 million in cap space by cutting or moving on from Prescott before 2027, when he will be 34 years old and nearing the end of his career. They'd also save $55 million by doing the same in 2028, the final year of his deal.
It's important to note that Jerry Jones would unlikely ever want to part with his franchise quarterback. However, if his peak has already come and gone and his production continues to drop in the coming seasons, then management will need to start weighing its options, most likely starting in 2027.
Do The Cowboys Have a Successor?
The Cowboys have two other backup quarterbacks on their 53-man roster. However, they don't seem interested in either of them being Prescott's eventual successor.
Cooper Rush is the current starter with Prescott out, but he isn't going to be anyone's successor at the quarterback position. He's been the backup in Dallas throughout his career, but he's already 30 years old with less than 300 career pass attempts.
Trey Lance was presumably acquired to learn and develop behind Prescott. The former No. 3 overall pick showed flashes in limited action for the San Francisco 49ers but was traded to Dallas after the emergence of Brock Purdy.
Instead, the Cowboys seem unwilling to give Lance a shot, especially since Prescott was injured. He was thrown into the game during Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in garbage time, completing 4-of-6 passes for 21 yards and an interception while rushing three times for 17 yards.
Lance came into the league with tons of hype as an undefeated starter at North Dakota State with dual-threat potential. Despite that, he has struggled to take care of the ball due to inexperience at the college and pro level. His interception was an ugly one, failing to read safety help over the top.
Dallas is a walking disaster. pic.twitter.com/tyRJ0YP5u5
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 11, 2024
Even if the Cowboys considered Lance a long-term project, he's already 24 years old and is set to hit free agency after this season.
It appears as if neither quarterback is a viable option to be a long-term successor.
Will The Cowboys Draft a Quarterback?
As much as some Cowboys fans might be calling for the Cowboys to take a quarterback in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, that seems like a bit of a stretch after they just made Prescott the richest player in NFL history.
Instead, the Cowboys could draft a backup/developmental quarterback in the later rounds. After all, both backup quarterbacks on the roster will be free agents after this season, and the Cowboys might want someone with more potential to get opportunities if Prescott goes down again.
There are a few interesting options for the Cowboys to consider in the later rounds. Indiana's Kurtis Rourke has burst onto the scene for an undefeated 10-0 Hoosiers team. He's not a dual-threat quarterback, but he has great size at 6-foot-5 and a live arm while throwing with anticipation and accuracy.
Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke has been such a fun story this year. He went from a 5-year MAC player to now firmly on the map as an early-to-mid Day 3 player.
— Cory (@fakecorykinnan) November 12, 2024
His Michigan tape was a bit rough around the edges, but man is he one of the prettier bucket throwers in the class... pic.twitter.com/ue1sQXZVBp
The former MAC Offensive Player of the Year at Ohio is seeing his draft stock skyrocket for the Hoosiers. He could end up going earlier than the Cowboys would be comfortable drafting a quarterback, leaving them with some other potential Day 3 options.
Prospects like Dillon Gabriel out of Oregon might be more realistic backup options in the later rounds. He's a left-handed quarterback who has seen success at UCF, Oklahoma, and Oregon, throwing for more than 17,000 yards and 147 touchdowns in his career.
From a play-style standpoint, Gabriel plays the game a lot like a left-handed version of Russell Wilson. He's a smaller prospect at 6 feet, 200 pounds, but like the former Seattle Seahawks star, Gabriel has solid athletic ability and terrific deep-ball accuracy.
Dillon Gabriel dropped this in the bucket 🪣🤑
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 19, 2024
What a beauty for @oregonfootball 🔥 pic.twitter.com/jId1VOzMjT
Both Rourke and Gabriel are older for prospects at 24 and 23 years old, respectively, but they have the playing experience at the college level to be ready when called upon.
Other prospects to consider in the later rounds will include in-state quarterback Conner Weigman, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, and Notre Dame's Riley Leonard.
The Cowboys could also pick up a veteran quarterback off of the free-agent market and punt the decision to find an eventual Prescott successor to the 2026 or 2027 drafts. Either way, the Cowboys might want to start thinking about a succession plan, even if Prescott still has a few more years left.
