NFL Analysis
10/13/24
6 min read
Dallas Cowboys Blowout Loss Proves They're Not a Serious Super Bowl Contender
On Jerry Jones' 82nd birthday, the Dallas Cowboys showed that they don't have the horses to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2024.
The Cowboys were embarrassed by the Detroit Lions on Sunday, losing 47-9 at home. The game was basically over by halftime, with Detroit leading 27-6 going into the break.
Things only got worse as the game progressed. Dan Campbell and the Lions continued to pour it on with the game out of hand, scoring on drive after drive before pulling the starters. It was such a bad loss that Mike McCarthy's job could be in jeopardy before the season ends.
It was the kind of performance that required a closer look at both sides of the ball for Dallas, with what went wrong and what is preventing them from being taken seriously as a Super Bowl (or even playoff) contender.
Another Defensive Meltdown
It felt like the Cowboys' defense wasn't even on the field on Sunday.
In fact, the Cowboys' defense couldn't keep the Lions from scoring at any point in the game. Detroit's first nine drives resulted in points, with zero punts or turnovers. By the time the Cowboys finally started to take some starters out, the Lions were up 47-9.
The pre-backup numbers for the Lions offense seem almost unbelievable. They averaged 8.3 yards per play, 5.7 yards per carry, and generated 457 yards of total offense.
According to RBSDM, Jared Goff generated 0.57 expected points added per play despite an average depth of target of 10.2 yards downfield. The Lions' run game was almost as effective as the passing game, generating 0.38 EPA per play before the backups went in.
Heading into the week, the Lions had the second-ranked rushing offense by DVOA, behind only the Baltimore Ravens. They may not have a dual-threat quarterback like Lamar Jackson, but that didn't stop them from gashing a Cowboys defense that ranked 31st in defensive DVOA against the run heading into Week 6.
The absences of Micah Parsons and Eric Kendricks, while Demarcus Lawrence is on injured reserve, made things even harder for the Cowboys' defensive front.
Dallas' secondary wasn't much better. Goff averaged a jaw-dropping 12.6 yards per pass attempt with three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a near-perfect 153.8 passer rating.
Trevon Diggs was picked on in the loss. According to PFF (data pending), Diggs was targeted three times, allowing three completions for 60 yards and this touchdown to Jameson Williams.
Clearly the book on #Lions’ Jameson Williams is having to jam the living hell out of him at the line of scrimmage to keep him from opening up fast. #Cowboys’ Trevon Diggs doesn’t get him square and that’s all she wrote. pic.twitter.com/EEQfL185AA
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) October 13, 2024
It was the first touchdown Diggs had allowed in coverage since the 2022 season.
Goff's passing chart suggests that the Lions quarterback had no problem throwing exactly where he wanted to throughout the game, even on deep shots.
The score indicates a blowout, but some of the Lions' play calls were flat-out disrespectful of the Cowboys' defense.
Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson attempted multiple designed plays for potential touchdowns to offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. They also continued to throw the ball once backup QB Malik Hooker was in the game.
Penei Sewell.
— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) October 13, 2024
We are all witnesses. pic.twitter.com/AVgP4gyQpB
This was supposed to be one of the biggest games of Week 6 between two NFC contenders. Instead, the Lions' offense steamrolled the Cowboys, and their defense didn't put up any kind of fight.
Dallas' Offense Is A Mess
Despite all of their weapons and star players, the Cowboys' offense continues to have issues.
Offensive line play has been a concern for Dallas this season, and things don't seem to be getting much better. First-round rookie Tyler Guyton was benched this week in favor of Tyler Smith moving to left tackle and T.J. Bass slotting in at left guard.
That offensive line change didn't help at all. Prescott was pressured on 15 of his dropbacks, getting sacked four times for 26 yards. That pressure resulted in his worst game of the season, as he completed 17-of-33 passes for 178 yards and two interceptions. According to RBSDM, he generated a negative 15.2 total EPA.
That pressure played a huge role in the rough game from Prescott. According to PFF, Prescott completed just 6-of-11 passes with an interception and a 28.2 passer rating when throwing under duress.
That's ✌️ for Brian Branch!#DETvsDAL | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/GWVyRiHYDg
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) October 13, 2024
When he could throw from a clean pocket, Prescott seemed determined to force-feed CeeDee Lamb, giving him 14 targets. While Lamb is a legitimate star, the Cowboys lack other reliable weapons that have a real impact. Jalen Tolbert has shown flashes, but the other receiver options behind him include a struggling Brandin Cooks and a 153-pound KaVontae Turpin.
Jake Ferguson was supposed to be the breakout star in Dallas' offense, but he was a non-factor in Sunday's loss. He caught 3-of-4 targets for 11 yards and has yet to find the end zone this season.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys' run game continues to be nonexistent. The Cowboys ranked 31st with 82 rushing yards per game heading into Sunday, then ran for just 53 yards and 3.1 yards per carry against Detroit. Their 3.5 yards per carry before Week 6 were also the lowest in the league.
The advanced metrics aren't much prettier for the run game. According to TruMedia, the Cowboys are 29th in the NFL with 0.99 yards generated before contact per rushing attempt and 28th with 2.39 yards after contact.
That's a testament to the offensive line's poor play and the lack of a dynamic running back. Ezekiel Elliott is a few years past his prime, while Rico Dowdle, the other primary runner, is a former undrafted free agent from 2020 who has never averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry in a season.
Can the Cowboys Recover?
Even if the Cowboys think they can still make the playoffs, there's a brutal road ahead to make that happen.
With a 3-3 record, the Cowboys sit behind the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders in the NFC East standings. To make matters worse, they also have the sixth-hardest remaining strength of schedule, with their next five games against the 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, Texans, and Commanders.
Things can quickly get even more bleak for the Cowboys' playoff chances. Teams will smell blood in the water after such an embarrassing blowout in front of a national audience. Dallas could quickly be completely out of the playoff picture if it can't scrape together some wins during its upcoming stretch of games.
If it doesn't happen this week, another loss or two could also mean the end of the Mike McCarthy era in Dallas.
