Analysis
1/4/21
6 min min read
Deep Dive: Evaluating Success Rate for First-Year Head Coaches
At least six teams are currently in the market for a new head coach. It’s an annual rite of passage. There were five coaching changes in the NFL last season. Over the past 13 years, there has been an average of more than six offseason coaching changes. Considering the fact that most of these changes occur when teams are struggling, immediate success for a new head coach is not easy – especially for first-time head coaches.
This year, Matt Rhule (Panthers), Joe Judge (Giants), Ron Rivera (Washington), Kevin Stefanski (Browns) and Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) were the new head coaches in the NFL, with Rhule, Judge and Stefanski being rookie head coaches. Of the five, Rivera and Stefanski are playoff-bound.
Based on the data from the past 13 years, 24 out of the 84 new coaches (rookie head coaches and veteran head coaches with a new team) have made the playoffs in their first year with their team (28.6%). Those 84 coaches had a combined record of 596-746-2, which is a .443 winning percentage (or just about 7 wins).
If you look at just the rookie head coaches since 2008 -- which is 60 out of the 84 (71.4%) new HC hires -- they account for 17 of the 24 new coaches that have made the playoffs in their first year (70.8%). Historically, this means that new rookie HCs are about 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs than new HCs who had prior head coaching experience. Those 60 rookie HCs since 2008 have had a combined record of 422-522-1, which is a .447 winning percentage (or just about 7 wins).
Prior to this season:
- Only 7 of those 57 rookie HCs since 2008 have made it past the wild card game (12.3%) and 5 out of the 57 made it past the divisional round (8.8%), with only 1 making it to or winning the SB (1.8%)
- 7 of the 17 rookie HCs that have made the playoffs have made it past the wild card game (41.2%)
- 5 out of the 17 rookie HCs that have made the playoffs have made it past the divisional round (29.4%)
- 1 of 17 rookie HCs that have made the playoffs has made it past the conference title game (5.9%) - Jim Caldwell
Conclusion
In year one as a head coach with a new team, the rookie first-time head coach is 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs that season than the new head coach with previous head coaching experience.
When looking for coaches this offseason, it is more likely to yield a playoff spot going with a rookie head coach than a head coach with previous experience.
That said, it’s also worth noting that head coaches with prior experience have a slightly better record in their first year with the new team than rookie head coaches.
Here is a breakdown of how first-year head coaches have fared since 2008 (* denotes coach with previous head coaching experience):
2008
5 new HCs, all rookie HCs
3 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 48-32
Rookie HC Record: 48-32
Mike Smith, Falcons: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost wild card game)
John Harbaugh, Ravens: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost AFC title game)
Mike Singletary, 49ers: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
Tony Sparano, Dolphins: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost in the wild card game)
Jim Zorn, Redskins: 8-8 record (did not make the playoffs)
2009
7 new HCs, all rookie HCs
2 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 41-71
Rookie HC Record: 41-71
Jim Schwartz, Lions: 2-14 record (did not make the playoffs)
Rex Ryan, Jets: 9-7 record (made playoffs, lost in the AFC title game)
Steve Spagnuolo, Rams: 1-15 record (did not make the playoffs)
Raheem Morris, Buccaneers: 3-13 record (did not make the playoffs)
Josh McDaniels, Broncos: 8-8 record (did not make the playoffs)
Jim Caldwell, Colts: 14-2 record (made playoffs, lost in the Super Bowl)
Todd Haley, Chiefs: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
2010
4 New HCs, 1 Rookie HC
1 new HC (not a first-time HC) made the playoffs
Combined Record: 23-41
Rookie HC Record: 6-10
*Pete Carroll, Seahawks: 7-9 record (made playoffs, lost in divisional round)
*Chan Gailey, Bills: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
Jason Garrett, Cowboys: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Mike Shanahan, Redskins: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
2011
7 new HCs, 6 rookie HCs
2 new HCs (1 rookie HC and 1 not) made the Playoffs
Combined Record: 51-61
Rookie HC Record: 43-53
Ron Rivera, Panthers: 6-10 record (Did not make the playoffs)
*John Fox, Broncos: 8-8 record (made playoffs, lost in the divisional round)
Leslie Frazier, Vikings: 3-13 record (did not make the playoffs)
Pat Shurmur, Browns: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
Hue Jackson, Raiders: 8-8 record (did not make the playoffs)
Jim Harbaugh, 49ers: 13-3 record (made playoffs, lost in the NFC title game)
Mike Munchak, Titans: 9-7 record (did not make the playoffs)
2012
6 new HCs, 5 Rookie HCs
1 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 38-57-1
Rookie HC Record: 31-49
Greg Schiano, Buccaneers: 7-9 record (Did not make the playoffs)
*Jeff Fisher, Rams: 7-8-1 record (did not make the playoffs)
Dennis Allen, Raiders: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
Chuck Pagano, Colts: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost in Wild Card Game)
Mike Mularkey, Jaguars: 2-14 record (did not make the playoffs)
Joe Philbin, Dolphins: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
2013
8 New HCs, 6 Rookie HCs
3 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 62-66
Rookie HC Record: 41-55
*Andy Reid, Chiefs: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost in wild card game)
Chip Kelly, Eagles: 10-6 record (Made playoffs, lost in wild card game)
Marc Trestman, Bears: 8-8 record (did not make the playoffs)
Gus Bradley, Jaguars: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
Mike McCoy, Chargers: 9-7 record (made playoffs, lost in divisional round)
Doug Marrone, Bills: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
Rob Chudzinski, Browns: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Bruce Arians, Cardinals: 10-6 record (did not make the playoffs)
2014
7 new HCs, 4 Rookie HCs,
1 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 42-70
Rookie HC Record: 27-37
Bill O’Brien, Texans: 9-7 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Lovie Smith, Buccaneers: 2-14 record (did not make the playoffs)
Jay Gruden, Redskins: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
Mike Zimmer, Vikings: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
Mike Pettine, Browns: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Ken Whisenhunt, Titans: 2-14 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Jim Caldwell, Lions: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost in the wild card game)
2015
7 new HCs, 3 Rookie HCs
1 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 56-56
Rookie HC Record: 23-25
Dan Quinn, Falcons: 8-8 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Rex Ryan, Bills: 8-8 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Jack Del Rio, Raiders: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
*John Fox, Bears: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
Todd Bowles, Jets: 10-6 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Gary Kubiak, Broncos: 12-4 record (made playoffs, won the Super Bowl)
Jim Tomsula, 49ers: 5-11 record (did not make the playoffs)
2016
7 New HCs, 4 Rookie HCs
2 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 49-63
Rookie HC Record- 37-27
Doug Pederson, Eagles: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Mike Mularkey, Titans: 9-7 record (did not make the playoffs)
Adam Gase, Dolphins: 10-6 record (made playoffs, lost in wild card game)
Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers: 9-7 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Hue Jackson, Browns: 1-15 record (did not make the playoffs)
Ben McAdoo, Giants: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost in wild card game)
*Chip Kelly, 49ers: 2-14 record (did not make the playoffs)
2017
6 new HCs, 5 Rookie HCs
3 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 50-46
Rookie HC Record: 40-40
*Doug Marrone, Jaguars: 10-6 record (made playoffs, lost in AFC title game)
Anthony Lynn, Chargers: 9-7 record (did not make the playoffs)
Sean McDermott, Bills: 9-7 record (made playoffs, lost in wild card)
Vance Joseph, Broncos: 5-11 record (did not make the playoffs)
Sean McVay, Rams: 11-5 record (made playoffs, lost in wild card)
Kyle Shanahan, 49ers: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
2018
7 New HCs, 5 Rookie HCs
2 HCs made the playoffs
Combined Record: 49-63
Rookie HC Record: 40-40
Frank Reich, Colts: 10-6 record (made playoffs, Lost in divisional round)
Matt Nagy, Bears: 12-4 record (made playoffs, Lost in wild card round)
Steve Wilks, Cardinals: 3-13 record (did not make the playoffs)
Matt Patricia, Lions: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Pat Shurmur, Giants: 5-11 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Jon Gruden, Raiders: 4-12 record (did not make the playoffs)
Mike Vrabel, Titans: 9-7 record (did not make the playoffs)
2019
8 new HCs, 6 Rookie HCs
1 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 52-75-1
Rookie HCs Record: 38-57-1
Matt LaFleur, Packers: 13-3 record (made playoffs, lost in the NFC title game)
Brian Flores, Dolphins: 5-11 record (did not make the playoffs)
Zac Taylor, Bengals: 2-14 record (did not make the playoffs)
Vic Fangio, Broncos: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
Freddie Kitchens, Browns: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals: 5-10-1 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Bruce Arians, Buccaneers: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Adam Gase, Jets: 7-9 record (did not make the playoffs)
2020
5 new HCs, 3 Rookie HCs
2 made the playoffs
Combined Record: 35-45
Rookie HC Record: 22-26
Matt Rhule, Panthers: 5-11 record (did not make the playoffs)
Joe Judge, Giants: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
*Ron Rivera, Football Team: 7-9 record (made playoffs, TBD)
Kevin Stefanski, Browns: 11-5 record (made playoffs, TBD)
*Mike McCarthy, Cowboys: 6-10 record (did not make the playoffs)
