Fantasy
9/24/22
11 min read
Week 3 Main Slate Tournament DFS Games
27 players are $7,000 or more on DraftKings in the Week 3 Main slate pool. This makes lineup building with top-end players more difficult than usual. There are still a lot of players listed as questionable, and I will update my player pool Sunday morning as the news from Saturday night comes.
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Leverage, and Lineup Construction. If you have any questions, be sure to ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
Double Stacks
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Stack: QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB Raheem Mostert, and WR Jaylen Waddle
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Runback: WR Stefon Diggs
Starting with the elephant within the stack, I will gladly play Mostert this weekend against the Bills with the pieces they are missing up front. Then you have the factor of Miami's weather, where it's going to be the first time the Bills play in the sun this season, and they are already down two interior defensive tackles and Micah Hyde, who has had over 70 tackles in three seasons. Hill and Waddle have been electric to begin the season, and because of how pricing is on the slate, I lean the salary save with Waddle.
From a coverage standpoint, the Bills are likely to play off two deep, forcing the Dolphins to continue working the underneath portion of the field, leading to a high reception total for Waddle. I do not have a problem playing Tua with Waddle and Hill, but I want to have the Diggs runback, and Mostert gives me that opportunity.
Miami has only gotten pressure on 15.6% of dropbacks, and if you are not going to get pressure on Josh Allen, it doesn't matter who your corner is; Diggs will eventually get open. With the new offense, Diggs has focused his route tree on getting in and out of cuts, and they have had him run 9% fewer go routes per game. The connection between Allen and Diggs will be on full display, and it will be needed with the injuries they have had on defense.
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Stack: QB Jameis Winston, WR Micheal Thomas, and WR Chris Olave
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Runback: WR DJ Moore
This will be a large field tournament play because this is a more opinionated projection on this game than what we see statistically. The Panthers, the first two weeks, have faced off against two of the bottom-tier passing offenses between the Browns and Giants, and this matchup will be the most talented WR group they have faced so far this season. Winston is dealing with some injuries, but it wasn't the injuries that prevented a big game against the Buccaneers last weekend.
The Buccaneers defense is playing lights out right now, and Winston could not get the ball moving down the field. It wasn't for lack of trying, as Olave had over 300 air yards and was targeted on 13 plays. As for Michael Thomas has scored in two straight games and has had at least five receptions. This stack makes a lot of the other pieces affordable and will allow you to go to some of the chalky players.
The Saints are a team that will play man coverage at a higher rate than league average, and the runback in this game becomes DJ Moore. Moore has a 46.2% target share vs. man coverage this year and a good resume vs. the Saints. Moore has averaged around 18 DraftKings points per game in this matchup, with over 90 yards in three of the last five.
Single Stacks
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Stack: QB Josh Allen & WR Stefon Diggs
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Runback: RB Raheem Mostert
There isn’t much to add to this stack that wasn’t said in the paragraph underneath the Tua stack. For the top quarterbacks, I am single stacking them this weekend because of the pricing and uncertainty of their health and usage.
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Stack: QB Patrick Mahomes & TE Travis Kelce
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Runback: WR Michael Pittman Jr.
The Colts brought in Gus Bradley this off-season to be their defensive coordinator, and he had previously worked with the Raiders and Chargers. Mahomes last season led the Chiefs to two 40+ point outputs against his defense, and with his price being between Allen and Hurts, he isn’t projected to be popular.
Double stacking is a viable option with Mahomes, but there’s a lot of uncertainty about who will get targets outside Travis Kelce. We saw Justin Watson come in after the Mecole Hardman injury and catch a touchdown. Skyy Moore has been talked about to get more snaps, and we have Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdez-Scantling seeing most of the snaps. I am sticking to just utilizing Kelce for single-entry and three-entry max builds.
Matt Ryan’s performance last week was awful, but he will be getting Pittman back this week. After watching how Mike Williams continuously took advantage of the Chiefs, I expect a big performance from Pittman. Pittman had 13 targets in Week 1 and is likely to see over ten targets in this one.
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Stack: QB Jalen Hurts & WR Devonta Smith
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Runback: TE Logan Thomas
Hurts has been impressive to begin the season so far, and this is another great matchup for him. Hurts has had 14 designed runs, with four coming inside the 10-yard line. Through the air, he has averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, and even though he has only thrown for one touchdown, he has been a top 5 DFS QB.
Stacking Hurts has always been hard to accomplish with his upside tied to his rushing total, and with pricing, I prefer Devonta Smith a lot more than AJ Brown. In Week 1, Christian Kirk had 117 yards from lining up in the slot against the Commanders. Smith wasn't needed in Week 1 because there was a mismatch with AJ Brown against the Lions, who play a lot of man coverage, and in this one, the Commanders will play a lot of zone coverage. Smith working from the slot, should find the soft spots and have a big day.
The runback could easily be one of the Commanders' wide receivers; however, I like Thomas in this matchup because of his price this weekend. Tight end is always a scarce position, and the Eagles still have difficulty covering tight ends, and Irv Smith had a long touchdown right in his hands before the drop. I have no problem with the wide receivers, and this gives me a salary save and a correlated runback.
Mini-Stacks
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DET @ MIN: WR DJ Chark & WR Justin Jefferson
There are multiple ways to stack this Lions vs. Vikings matchup, and I will be going away from the normal approach. Through the first two weeks, we have seen the Vikings get beat deep, one dropped by Christian Watson and the other caught by Quez Watkins. Chark is the deep threat for this Lions team, and I will be looking for the deep ball in tournaments with him in the build.
The Vikings are favorites in the highest over-under on the slate, and I anticipate the way they get there will be through the air and not on the ground. Kevin O’Connell hasn’t gotten the running game going and has thrown it 17 times in the red zone while giving Cook one carry. The Lions are an improved run defense from last season, and their metrics are skewed against the Eagles and Jalen Hurts scrambling ability. They give up 5.07 yards per rush, but that number drops to 4.1 when you only include running backs. In addition, the Lions run a lot of man coverage, and since the beginning of 2021, Jefferson has a 31% target per route run rate against man coverage.
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CIN @ NYJ: RB Joe Mixon & WR Garrett Wilson
The Bengals will need to get Mixon going on the ground, and the Jets are a good opportunity to do so after the Browns ran for over 170 yards against them last weekend. Mixon will be needed to make defenses step up against their play action and give Burrow extra time to get the ball down the field. Mixon has had over 20 touches in back-to-back games, and there aren’t many running backs who will see his workload.
The Jets are allowing Flacco to throw the ball early and often, and Wilson has taken full advantage of that. Wilson has been in a rotational role but has earned the playing time because of the difference he makes on the field. He has a 24% target share while being targeted on 33% of his routes run so far this year. Wilson has become the number 1 wide receiver over Elijah Moore so far, but Moore is still extremely talented, and I expect him to bounce back. However, with the low salary difference, Wilson is the one to target.
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LVR @ TEN: WR Davante Adams & RB Derrick Henry
This game is another one that can be mini-stacked in multiple ways, but if I mini-stack it, I will go after the two most expensive players for a few reasons. Starting with Adams, Renfrow is out, and I expect him to be put into the slot more frequently, which will give him more targets in this matchup. The Titans have also been one of the worst teams at defending slot wide receivers since 2021.
As for Derrick Henry, he’s at a price that nobody wants to pay, and he’s at home in a game that neither team can afford to lose. Starting Raiders linebacker Denzel Perryman is out, and both Max Crosby and Chandler Jones are much better pass rushers. I am also interested in rookie WR Treylon Burks, but he’s not being put on the field enough for me to put him as a mini-stack.
One-Offs
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RB Leonard Fournette
The Packers' rush defense is giving up 5.6 yards per attempt, Fournette is a workhorse running back at an easy price to get to, and the Buccaneers will be without multiple pass catchers. Unfortunately, Fournette hasn't found the end zone, but I expect that to change soon.
Week 3 DFS Main Slate Player Pool
| Player | Pos | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | @ MIA | $8,200 | $9,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | @ IND | $7,900 | $8,700 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | @ WAS | $7,600 | $8,100 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | @ NYJ | $6,600 | $7,500 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | MIA | vs BUF | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| Derek Carr | QB | LV | @ TEN | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | NO | @ CAR | $5,200 | $6,900 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | vs LV | $8,100 | $8,800 |
| Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | vs DET | $7,900 | $8,300 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | @ NYJ | $7,600 | $8,200 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | DET | @ MIN | $7,200 | $8,000 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | TB | vs GB | $6,500 | $7,200 |
| David Montgomery | RB | CHI | vs HOU | $5,900 | $7,100 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | @ WAS | $5,500 | $6,800 |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | vs CIN | $5,300 | $6,200 |
| Michael Carter | RB | NYJ | vs CIN | $5,200 | $5,900 |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | MIA | vs BUF | $5,100 | $5,700 |
| Dameon Pierce | RB | HOU | @ CHI | $5,000 | $5,800 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | vs BAL | $4,800 | $5,400 |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | MIA | vs BUF | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | vs DET | $9,300 | $9,500 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LV | @ TEN | $8,400 | $8,700 |
| JaMarr Chase | WR | CIN | @ NYJ | $8,100 | $8,500 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | BUF | @ MIA | $7,700 | $8,300 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | MIA | vs BUF | $7,600 | $8,400 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | PHI | @ WAS | $7,300 | $8,000 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | @ MIN | $7,200 | $7,800 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | IND | vs KC | $6,900 | $7,400 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | vs BUF | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | vs PHI | $6,400 | $6,900 |
| Gabriel Davis | WR | BUF | @ MIA | $6,300 | $7,200 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | @ NYJ | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| Michael Thomas | WR | NO | @ CAR | $5,900 | $7,300 |
| Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | vs DET | $5,900 | $6,000 |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | HOU | @ CHI | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | BAL | @ NE | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| DJ Moore | WR | CAR | vs NO | $5,600 | $6,400 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | KC | @ IND | $5,500 | $6,100 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | vs CIN | $5,400 | $6,100 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | @ WAS | $5,200 | $6,000 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | NYJ | vs CIN | $5,000 | $5,500 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | TEN | vs LV | $4,900 | $5,900 |
| K.J. Osborn | WR | MIN | vs DET | $4,900 | $5,500 |
| Jarvis Landry | WR | NO | @ CAR | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | KC | @ IND | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | WR | BUF | @ MIA | $4,700 | $5,500 |
| Mecole Hardman | WR | KC | @ IND | $4,600 | $5,800 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | @ CAR | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Jamison Crowder | WR | BUF | @ MIA | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| Greg Dortch | WR | ARI | vs LAR | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | NE | vs BAL | $4,100 | $5,900 |
| Ashton Dulin | WR | IND | vs KC | $3,900 | $5,600 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | @ IND | $7,900 | $7,800 |
| Darren Waller | TE | LV | @ TEN | $5,800 | $6,400 |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LAR | @ ARI | $4,500 | $5,700 |
| Dawson Knox | TE | BUF | @ MIA | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| Logan Thomas | TE | WAS | vs PHI | $3,500 | $5,400 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | TE | MIN | vs DET | $3,100 | $5,000 |
| Buccaneers | DST | TB | vs GB | $3,100 | $4,700 |
| Eagles | DST | PHI | @ WAS | $2,900 | $4,000 |
| Texans | DST | HOU | @ CHI | $2,600 | $3,800 |
| Panthers | DST | CAR | vs NO | $2,600 | $3,900 |
| Raiders | DST | LV | @ TEN | $2,500 | $3,400 |
| Jets | DST | NYJ | vs CIN | $2,400 | $3,700 |
| Jaguars | DST | JAC | @ LAC | $2,300 | $3,000 |
WATCH MORE: Start This RB In DFS Lineups
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