NFL Analysis
11/3/24
7 min read
Did Everyone Crown Jordan Love As NFL's Next Star QB Too Early?
The Green Bay Packers looked like they found another future star quarterback in Jordan Love after his late breakout in 2023.
However, Love being crowned as the league's next superstar may have been premature.
It's been an up-and-down start to 2024 for Love, who struggled in Sunday's disappointing 24-14 loss to the Detroit Lions. The conditions did him no favors, but Love finished the game by completing 23-of-39 passes for 273 yards, an interception, and a lowly 69.7 passer rating.
There were some tough decisions throughout the game, but the one everyone will be talking about was his baffling decision to try to throw while being hit, which resulted in a horrendous pick-six that put the Packers down 17-3 heading into halftime.
KERBY JOSEPH PICK 6 🦁🔥
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 3, 2024
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/UmiNjua1Wl
A four-year, $220 million contract is going to come with lofty expectations. There's still time to turn it around, but Love has failed to meet those expectations heading into the team's bye week.
The Problem With Love
The style of play from Love and the Packers passing game can result in some jaw-dropping numbers when everything is going right. The problem is that things haven't looked like they did during the team's playoff run to end last year, and it's led to some frustrating performances.
Green Bay's offensive identity this season has been a strong run game combined with consistent deep shots to keep opponents guessing as to where the ball might go. With an average depth of target of 9.4 yards (h/t PFF), Love is tied with Derek Carr for the sixth-highest aDOT in the league.
Throwing farther down the field comes with risks, but it also comes with rewards. Unfortunately, Love and the Packers haven't reaped enough success with their deep passing attack. According to NFELO, Love ranks 19th among quarterbacks in success rate and 16th in EPA per dropback.
Because of that play style, the Packers have to avoid back-breaking mistakes like the one Love made on Sunday before halftime. However, the former first-round pick is so confident in his physical ability that he often refuses to give up on plays, which is what fans saw on the pick six.
That wasn't the first terrible decision Love made, resulting in a defensive touchdown this season, either.
CHAOS IN LA! Jordan Love tries to avoid a safety, but the Rams get a 3-yard pick 6! pic.twitter.com/y5MODC2Irz
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
According to Pro Football Focus, Love ranks eighth in the NFL with 10 turnover-worthy plays. He also leads the NFL with 10 interceptions.
Five of those interceptions have come when Love is throwing from under duress. What's fascinating is that Love doesn't consider checkdowns nearly as often as you'd from a quarterback under pressure. Instead, his aDOT skyrockets from 8.3 when kept clean up to 13.2 when pressured.
His passer rating in those situations drops drastically despite also throwing five interceptions from a clean pocket, going from 102.4 down to 52.1.
Sunday's loss to Detroit was the perfect example of what these issues look like when Love can't balance them out with touchdowns and consistent explosive plays. Just look at the difference in expected points added, along with how far Love was trying to throw down the field compared to Jared Goff.
Issues like these make it hard to come up with wins against Super Bowl contenders, but it's not all on Love.
What Isn't On Love
For as bad as he's looked, not all of the offense's problems are on Love.
Drops have been a major issue all season. Heading into Sunday's game, 14 of Love's passes had been dropped by his receivers, the fifth-most drops for a quarterback in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
Those drops continued to be an issue on Sunday, with at least four occurring in crucial moments. Those included a potential touchdown dropped by RB Chris Brooks, a third-down drop from Tucker Kraft, and another third-down drop to open up the second half from Dontayvion Wicks.
Wicks also missed this would-be touchdown in a crucial situation, down 24-6. The Lions would stop the Packers on fourth down, killing any chance they had at mounting a comeback.
this one is behind Dontayvion Wicks but ooooooff pic.twitter.com/rd2yjCFac2
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) November 3, 2024
On top of that, penalties continue to put the Packers' offense in disadvantageous situations. According to TruMedia, the Packers had the fifth-most penalized offense in the NFL entering Sunday's slate of games, including 11 false start penalties and 11 holding calls.
Injuries have also played a factor in Love's disappointing season. He missed two games early in the season with a sprained MCL but still looked fairly limited a couple of games after returning from injury. Then, he suffered a groin injury in Week 8 that forced him out of the game early in the second half, and that injury continued to hamper his ability against the Lions.
This was Love shortly before halftime, struggling through the groin pull while still playing through poor weather conditions.
Jordan Love is fighting through some pain. His groin will likely hurt with any long stride or deep throw where he has to twist and stabilize on his left leg.
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) November 3, 2024
Good sign to see him jogging at the end though. pic.twitter.com/EGUf7PwPmG
These issues don't completely absolve Love's struggles, but they add some much-needed context to what's going on with the Packers through nine games in 2024.
I Believe in a [Player] Called Love
The good news for the Packers is that Love and the offense have been here before.
Last season, the Packers looked completely disjointed to start the year. During a six-game stretch where the Packers went just 1-5, Love had posted a passer rating of only 73.9 with seven touchdowns, nine interceptions, and just 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
However, something clicked with Love after that stretch. In the final 10 games, including the two playoff appearances, the Packers quarterback had 23 touchdowns and just three interceptions, averaging 7.8 YPA with a passer rating of 112.1.
Love has bounced back before and has the chance to do so after such an ugly loss, thanks to a perfectly timed bye week. The 26-year-old can use the bye to continue rehabbing from his knee and groin injuries to come out fully healthy and prepared for a winnable game against an NFC North opponent in the Chicago Bears.
It's not like the sky is falling in Green Bay, either. They still have a 6-3 record and favorable odds at getting into the playoffs, even if they're now firmly behind the Lions in the division title race.
The Packers are also simply too talented on offense to continue struggling and stalling out near the end zone. Playmakers like Kraft and Jayden Reed are establishing themselves as stars on offense, while Romeo Doubs has carved out a role as the go-to safety blanket on the outside. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs is having an outstanding start to his career in Green Bay, running all over the field.
With the Packers' roster, it's up to Love to start moving in the right direction and for Matt LaFleur to potentially tweak the offense to allow his young quarterback to take more throws underneath instead of consistently going for the deep shots.
If that happens, then the Packers could turn things around just in time for another playoff run.
