News
10/20/24
7 min read
Drake Maye Looks Like Patriots Answer At QB For Post-Tom Brady Era
The New England Patriots are going through a rebuild, but their rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, is showing flashes of being a franchise QB.
Despite a 32-16 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, there were things to like about Maye and the Patriots offense on Sunday. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft completed 26-of-37 passes for 276 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions for a 109.7 passer rating.
Maye is still a work in progress, and the Patriots have a long road ahead before becoming a playoff contender. However, the team's confidence in their young quarterback should be boosted by the flashes in his first two career games.
A strong Showing from Drake Maye
The box score numbers from Maye's second career game look strong, and the advanced metrics tell a similar story.
According to RBSDM, Maye generated a solid 0.18 expected points added per play, resulting in 8.2 total EPA. He also generated a solid 5.1 completion percentage over expected, all while throwing an average of 8.0 yards downfield.
Maye looked particularly comfortable picking Jacksonville's defense apart when they were in zone coverage. His second touchdown of the game came on a strike in the red zone, throwing into a window with good anticipation.
A dart from Maye! 🎯
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) October 20, 2024
Pats comeback incoming? 👀 https://t.co/F9hwhi5JtM pic.twitter.com/XRGc1lsTQ7
It wasn't just a specific area of the field where Maye was trying to spam his passes, either. It was an even distribution of passing by depth, but he was particularly effective on his shots downfield. Per PFF, he completed 3-of-5 passes on passes 20-plus yards downfield for 87 yards and a touchdown, giving him a 143.8 passer rating.
The Patriots rookie was willing to take shots downfield and spread the ball around to his targets, resulting in a clean passing chart.
All of this success came despite more issues for the Patriots offensive line. It was the seventh different starting offensive line in seven games for the Patriots, while starter Layden Robinson was sidelined after suffering an ankle injury early in the contest.
The Patriots' offensive line has been a major issue all year, but Maye did an admirable job helping set his teammates up for success by avoiding pressure and taking off with his legs. According to preliminary data from Pro Football Focus, Maye was pressured 14 times on 42 dropbacks but was only sacked twice.
Maye's feel for pressure and finding outlets to escape was something that he also showed during his time at North Carolina. Once he escaped pressure, Maye was also willing to take off downfield, running three times for 18 yards, tied for the team lead in rushing yards with Rhamondre Stevenson.
Even in his debut against last week, Maye was showing similar flashes. He completed his one deep shot for a touchdown and continued to work on evading pressure in the pocket. The Patriots quarterback seemed much more settled in in his second game, and that bodes well for the rest of his rookie season.
Is Drake Maye The Post-Tom Brady Answer?
The Patriots have been searching for their next franchise quarterback since Tom Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They may have finally found him.
Prior to Maye, the Patriots' quarterback situation looked bleak. Cam Newton served as a stop-gap following Brady's departure before the team took a swing by drafting Mac Jones in the first round. Jones had been a national champion quarterback for the Alabama Crimson Tide, a pocket passer with good touch on deep shots downfield.
Instead, the Jones experiment was a disaster. His confidence deteriorated after a respectable rookie season, and by his final year, he had thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
Jones faced similar issues that Maye has had to deal with, particularly with a lack of weapons and reliable play from the offensive line. However, Jones lacked the mobility that Maye possesses to make off-script plays and extend them with his legs.
According to PFF, Jones struggled mightily when under duress, particularly in his last season with the Patriots. He posted a 41.4 passer rating when throwing under pressure in 2023, completing less than half of his passes for three touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also struggled to diagnose blitzes, posting a 66.5 passer rating against extra rushers.
It's a small sample size, but Maye's passer rating of over 92.0 in both categories through his first two games is impressive.
Maye will continue to get more comfortable picking apart the blitz, given what we saw from him as a post-snap processor in college. That's the biggest differentiator between him and New England's last swing on a first-round quarterback, and why he might really be the long-term answer for the Patriots under center.
Where the Patriots need Help
Looking beyond 2024, the Patriots need to treat next offseason as a time to overhaul their offense as much as possible to set their rookie quarterback up for success.
The good news is that the Patriots will have plenty of resources to do that in 2025. They have a projected $132 million in cap space, along with significant draft capital acquired in previous trades that offloaded key veterans like Matthew Judon and J.C. Jackson.
Offensive line help will be a top priority. David Andrews looks like the only starting-caliber starter on New England's unit, but he's out for the remainder of the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery.
A handful of intriguing options will be available in free agency this offseason, provided they don't re-sign with their current teams. The 2025 free agent class includes the likes of Cam Robinson, Garett Bolles, and Ronnie Stanley.
The Patriots could also use some of their draft picks on offensive linemen, but it might be too tempting to use their first-round pick on one of the top receivers in this class, especially if they end up picking in the top five. Prospects like Tetairoa McMillan, Luther Burden, and even two-way star Travis Hunter could be too hard to pass up on since the Patriots lack a true No. 1 receiver.
Ja'Lynn Polk could eventually turn into a star-caliber receiver, but he is off to a brutal start as a rookie. He was targeted three times in Sunday's loss to the Jaguars, including on a potential touchdown near the goal line before slipping on his route.
Ja'Lynn Polk's no good very bad day continues pic.twitter.com/7iblPifQgb
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) October 20, 2024
Polk has caught just 10 passes on 26 targets this season, so it may be some time before he finally gets acclimated to playing at the NFL level. Drafting a top-tier wideout could take some of the pressure off of Polk in 2025 and beyond and help him establish himself as more of a reliable No. 2 option.
Don't forget about New England's defensive issues, either. Heading into Sunday, the Patriots ranked 29th in defensive DVOA and gave up 32 times to a 1-5 team that looked on the verge of firing head coach Doug Pederson. The unit is in desperate need of an established star pass rusher after trading Judon away, as well as some more impact defensive backs to build around with Christian Gonzalez.
The Patriots won't turn this team around overnight, but putting a strong offensive line in front of Maye while adding some more weapons for him to throw to could help him take a big second-year leap in 2025.
