NFL Analysis
3/9/24
14 min read
Dream Landing Spots for Top 2024 NFL Free Agents
The start of the 2024 NFL free agency period is right around the corner. Beginning Monday at noon ET, players can negotiate with prospective teams. The official signing period begins Wednesday, March 13, at 4 p.m. ET.
>>READ: Free Agency Signing Tracker
NFL free agency can make or break a team before the season begins. Missing on a high-priced addition could lead to the departure or passing on someone else who was a better fit. It's more fun when top NFL free agents match with their dream landing spot.
>>READ: Top 100 Free Agents
Some of this year's top unrestricted free agents (Chris Jones and Baker Mayfield) should return to their previous situations. Outside of them, we're looking at the best possible landing spots for the top of the crop and factoring in cap space, age, draft assets available and recent play.
Dream Landing Spots for 2024 Free Agents
Kirk Cousins, Quarterback
Landing Spot: Atlanta Falcons 
While most positions hit a production wall by age 30, quarterbacks age relatively well. Kirk Cousins, who turns 36 this August, is coming off an injury-shortened season in which he produced one of his best years.
He had the Vikings' offense humming despite not benefitting from a decent running game, posting a touchdown rate (5.8 percent) well above his career rate (5.2 percent) and an interception rate (1.6 percent) that was the third-best of his career.
Alas, a torn Achilles likely ended his tenure in Minnesota. The Vikings need to upgrade on Cousins after six years of great stats but subpar moments in critical situations, so they should look for a cheaper option in the draft. And if Cousins hits the unrestricted market as expected, he'll have a few solid suitors.
The Atlanta Falcons look like the early favorite for a good reason. They have a good offensive line and one of the better young corps of playmakers, but their QB play has been abysmal in recent years. If Cousins is even his average self by the middle of the 2024 season, Atlanta might win 11 games.
Thanks to his play style and ability to overcome average physical traits, we could see Cousins have a third act to his career until he's 40.
>> READ MORE: Deep Dive Into Cousins' Free Agency
Russell Wilson, QuarterBack
Landing Spot: Las Vegas Raiders
Russell Wilson might be the fourth or fifth-best quarterback in the unrestricted market. Although he is behind Justin Fields as an option, he'll be one of the top value pickups of the offseason.
Because Denver released him with offset money, whoever lands Wilson can do so for the veteran minimum. Every dollar spent over that figure will go to Denver since Wilson will be paid by his former franchise.
The Pittsburgh Steelers would get an upgrade with Wilson and have been tied to him. However, Fields still looks like a better option in a loaded AFC North that requires playmaking from the position to win in the playoffs.
Instead, the Las Vegas Raiders make sense. Las Vegas is competitive but has a first-year head coach who can benefit from a veteran quarterback to steady the ship.
The Raiders, who hired Fields' failed offensive coordinator from Chicago, are unlikely to trade into the draft's top three picks to land one of the class' stars or get Fields. Aidan O'Connell isn't the answer long-term, and Wilson can give enough to keep Davante Adams in town until next offseason.
Then, the Raiders might be in a better situation to find their star for the future.
In the meantime, Wilson can function in a run-heavy offense that strips his responsibilities down. Denver did well to keep Wilson in check, throwing almost 30 percent of attempts behind the line of scrimmage. Giving Wilson dump-off passes and deep passes, with nothing else in between, can be the recipe for an improved Raiders offense.
>> READ MORE: What's Next for Russell Wilson?
Saquon Barkley, Running Back
Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals
It might be tempting fate too much to plug Saquon Barkley onto the Ravens' roster, considering how their offensive playmakers have struggled to stay healthy and his lack of durability. Baltimore has cap issues and will be stripping down to the studs a bit. Instead, Barkley should look to move out west.
The Arizona Cardinals have more than $50 million to spend before moving money around on veteran contracts. Upgrading the running back position isn't dire since James Conner continues to play well, but he's had his own health issues and counts for almost $9 million against the cap. The Cardinals might as well get more explosive at the position by cutting Conner to save $5.9 million and get Barkley.
Giving Barkley a dynamic quarterback in Kyler Murray — plus the inevitable offensive line upgrades that will come from Arizona's vast array of cap space and draft assets — will be mutually beneficial.
The Cardinals have to reboot the unit. Coming away from this offseason with Barkley and Marvin Harrison Jr. would go a long way toward building a winner in 2024.
Derrick Henry, Running Back
Landing Spot: Los Angeles Chargers
Seeing Derrick Henry anywhere but Tennessee will be painful. Since becoming a starter, he has defined the Titans' franchise and made the team a menacing challenge with his toughness. But it's time for both parties to move on.
The Los Angeles Chargers have cap issues, so we'll see familiar names restructured or cut. Their first move should be giving new head coach Jim Harbaugh some hard-nosed players. Henry, who is 30 and the most physically imposing offensive player in the league, will immediately give Harbaugh's offense a tougher identity.
There's rightfully some concern about Henry's decreased explosiveness and mediocre contributions as a receiver. The Chargers can add a backup in the draft to help there. But Henry can be Justin Herbert's reliable bellcow and personal bodyguard for the next two seasons.
Josh Jacobs, Running Back
Landing Spot: Houston Texans
The Raiders' running game plummeted in 2023. One year after totaling 393 touches and leading the NFL with 2,053 yards, Josh Jacobs' efficiency bottomed out at a career-worst mark. But it's hard to pin all that on Jacobs, considering he faced the highest average of defenders in the box per play.
Although only 26, Jacobs is the best athlete of the top four backs hitting the market. He still has great speed when he has any runway to explode upfield and contributes in the passing game. The best way to get the most out of him is to put him behind two high-end tackles like Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard and next to C.J. Stroud.
Barkley has been linked to the Houston Texans, but Jacobs has been a little healthier and is more of a consistent rusher. He is less reliant on creating chunk plays and has fewer negative plays overall. Keeping the chains moving is incredibly valuable in Houston's offense.
Calvin Ridley, Wide Receiver
Landing Spot: New York Giants
This is a defining offseason for New York Giants coach Brian Daboll and his regime. Finally, armed with a full stock of draft picks and a respectable amount of cap space, it's time to reshape a roster lacking a strong offensive identity. That could include drafting a quarterback in the first round and overhauling the playmakers around him.
With Barkley hitting free agency after the Giants wisely avoided paying him, the quickest upgrade the team can make is to add a speedy, reliable receiver. The team lacks a reliable option next to 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt and TE Darren Waller, and Calvin Ridley can be the featured piece of a unit desperately needing to be overhauled.
Ridley, 29, is the most reliable receiver on the market. He's totaled at least 821 yards and seven touchdowns in each full season he's played. Daboll's skilled playcalling would also maximize Ridley’s talent.
Marquise Brown, Wide Receiver
Landing Spot: New England Patriots
Until 2023, Marquise Brown had posted a catch rate of at least 58 percent in his first four seasons. However, the Cardinals trotted out a revolving door of bad passers until Murray returned from injury, and Brown saw his per-game average drop by 18 yards compared to 2022. Going back to Arizona is possible, considering the team's dearth of options on the current roster.
But there will be considerable competition. Few receivers are as fast as Brown, and he's proven versatile enough to play a more possession-based role. Despite running a 4.27 40-yard dash, Brown hasn't averaged more than 11.3 yards per catch since 2020.
The New England Patriots’ offense badly needs functional speed, regardless of whether they take a QB at No. 3 overall or trade down. Armed with the second-most cap space and only one receiver on the roster worth continued development in DeMario Douglas, throwing a considerable short-term deal to Brown makes sense.
>>READ: Post-Combine Mock Draft
Pairing Brown with LSU's Jayden Daniels is especially exciting.
Tyron Smith, Offensive Tackle
Landing Spot: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs’ dreams of pairing Patrick Mahomes with Mike Evans died before they could pitch the star receiver. That might be for the best, considering the Chiefs still need to re-sign Chris Jones and figure out L'Jarius Sneed's future. A slew of restructures can open enough space for one splash move.
With LT Donovan Smith coming off a one-year deal where he was a mediocre stopgap, the Chiefs could turn to 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris or grab a top-tier ring chaser. Tyron Smith is expected to hit free agency, and the veteran blindside blocker could be the perfect gamble for Kansas City.
Smith hasn't played in more than 13 games since 2015, but he's an All-Pro talent when on the field. The Chiefs could limit his practice time to keep him healthy, so there's a trade-off for a potentially big one-year, incentive-laden deal. If Smith hits, though, the Chiefs' offense will be even scarier in 2024.
Danielle Hunter, EDGE
Landing Spot: Los Angeles Rams
After missing the 2020 season because of a neck injury and the final nine games of 2021 because of a torn pectoral muscle, Danielle Hunter entered the 2022 season as a make-or-break former star.
Since then, he's played in every game and earned two Pro Bowl nods in two years — 27 sacks, 35 tackles for loss and 44 QB hits will do that.
Turning 30 in October, Hunter has earned one more big payday on the open market. More than a dozen teams should be interested, including ones with more than $50 million in cap space such as Washington, Chicago, Tennessee and Houston. But Hunter's best fit is with the Los Angeles Rams.
The star-chasing franchise has cleaned its books in the past two years, and it's time to dive back into the fray. A bonafide pass-rusher to complement Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner and Byron Young can take this unit to the next level despite losing Raheem Morris to Atlanta.
Los Angeles has the need and more than enough cap room to make it happen.
Christian Wilkins, Defensive Tackle
Landing Spot: Cleveland Browns
We've seen the Cleveland Browns linked to one of the top overall free agents, Christian Wilkins, despite the team already having a league-high 10 players earning more than $9.5 million.
Cleveland can make one big swing this offseason by using a cash-heavy method that can open almost $50 million before renegotiating a pay cut for Nick Chubb. Wilkins makes sense as that player.
The Browns did well using a rotation of Shelby Harris, Mo Hurst and Jordan Elliott in 2023, but it makes sense to give defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz a more effective pass-rusher.
Though Harris had a similar pass rush win rate at a fraction of the cost, Wilkins is also a significant upgrade as a run defender and plays 81 percent of snaps. He's a reliable tank who can plug in next to Myles Garrett and Dalvin Tomlinson.
Patrick Queen, LineBacker
Landing Spot: Houston Texans
The linebacker market has been less than robust recently, but Patrick Queen should do well next week. This is not a strong linebacker draft class or free-agent group, and the 24-year-old is coming off his two best seasons in Baltimore. The Ravens already paid Roquan Smith, so Queen will be the odd man out.
Houston, flush with $70 million in cap space, pushed Blake Cashman to new heights in DeMeco Ryans' first season with the franchise. Cashman is a good athlete but not nearly the instinctual and well-rounded player Queen is. Queen has averaged 113.5 tackles, 4.5 sacks, almost four pass breakups and one interception per year.
Ryans saw firsthand the flexibility a standout middleman provides a defense in his time with San Francisco, plus his own career. If Houston can't land Wilkins, Queen is a terrific second option as a splash defensive addition.
Xavier McKinney, Safety
Landing Spot: Chicago Bears
There are a shocking number of familiar names in the safety market, and Xavier McKinney might be the best investment possible. Turning 25 this summer, McKinney is coming off a Pro Bowl-worthy season. A fantastic tackler throughout his career, he took his coverage impact to the next level, setting a career-high in pass breakups and notching three interceptions.
Since the safety market will be depressed, a cap-rich team like the Chicago Bears should make a big play for McKinney. He fits their timeline to compete, and they need a versatile and consistent safety.
They just signed cornerback Jaylon Johnson to a long-term deal, and pairing him with McKinney and recent draft picks Jaquan Brisker, Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson can unlock the talented but young unit.
Justin Simmons, Safety
Landing Spot: Philadelphia Eagles
Considering the career Justin Simmons has put together since entering the NFL in 2016, seeing him outright released to save the team $14.5 million in cap space was stunning. Simmons has been an elite playmaker since earning the starting job, producing 604 tackles, 30 interceptions, 4.5 sacks and 64 pass breakups. He turns 31 in November.
Landing with the Philadelphia Eagles makes too much sense. Simmons' former defensive coordinator (Vic Fangio) and DB coach (Christian Parker) are in Philadelphia, and the Eagles recently cut Kevin Byard.
They have a glaring need next to Sydney Brown and the lower price for safeties will help the team acquire a bona fide talent.
