Analysis
11/4/22
7 min read
DVOA Dispatch: DFS Targets for Week 9
Our DVOA-adjusted Pass and Run game rankings are back for Week 9!
Last week, my system had the Miami Dolphins as the top passing game to target. Tua Tagovailoa succeeded in having the most yards passing on the week with 382! Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, and Tom Brady were also in my top-8 pass game environments, and each finished in the top-8 for yards passing on the week. Our fading of the QBs from the Bears, Cowboys, Steelers, and Patriots was also a success.
Reviewing my system’s rushing recommendations, Derrick Henry smashed, and even his backup, Dontrell Hilliard, ran for 83 yards on only eight carries. Nick Chubb pounded out over 100 yards and two TDs, and Tony Pollard was exemplary with 131 yards and three TDs. Unfortunately, Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker flopped, facing each other's teams. However, our fading of the Rams', Buccaneers', and Colts' runners was a smart move.
Starting this week, my system will start factoring home/away and weighting recent performances.
Passing Game Targets
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are the top-ranked passing environment to target this week, and now is a great time to remind readers that this system is injury-agnostic. With WRs Mike Williams and Keenan Allen hurting, this might turn into the Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett show. But the best way to attack Atlanta is with WRs. Josh Palmer has cleared the concussion protocol, and DeAndre Carter is healthy. This might end with Ekeler playing the "WR1” role like Alvin Kamara did last week for the Saints. Spike week, engage.
Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes and company don’t need high rankings in my system to smash. But when they do show up in the top few recommendations, I lean into it. Tennessee defends the run well (3rd in EPA) but is vulnerable through the air. Dial up Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster.
Cincinnati Bengals
Poor Joe Burrow isn’t the same without Ja'Marr Chase. However, you can’t usually run well on Carolina (2nd in defensive rush EPA), so fire up Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd and fade Joe Mixon. Hayden Hurst could be a good option considering the Panthers' TE defense is ranked 21st.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo uncharacteristically struggled in the second half against the Packers last week. While Green Bay is more of a run-funnel defense, the Jets are a “slot WR funnel” defense if such a thing exists. The Jets’ defensive EPA ranks well against RB (9th), TE (10th), and non-slot WR (3rd) but is less impressive against slot WR (22nd). Isaiah McKenzie runs 68.5% of his routes from the slot, Khalil Shakir is 58.1%, and Stefon Diggs is 34.1%. McKenzie might be losing trust (and therefore future opportunities), so my focus would be on Diggs and Shakir. Josh Allen is always playable, considering his rushing floor and cannon arm.
Miami Dolphins
Miami follows up their explosion last week with yet another appearance on our list. And fortunately for Tyreek Hill, the Bears struggle against slot WR (29th). Chicago is actually the number one defense against non-slot WR and are respectable against TE (11th). Another spot for Tua, Tyreek, and Jaylen Waddle to excel. I am also interested in Raheem Mostert.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is fresh off of beating the surprising Giants, now visiting the Cardinals in a divisional matchup. The calendar struck November, so queue the Kliff Kingsbury coaching meltdown. It would be great if Seattle would choose one TE to roll with week in and week out (as you know, we always target TE vs. Arizona). However, Will Dissly as the 1a might be the best we can get this week. The Cardinals are decent against WR, both in the slot (11th) and out wide (8th). QB Geno Smith has proven doubters wrong time and time again. While this could be a lower-scoring divisional affair, Arizona actually has given up 306.5 yards passing per game at home compared to only 198.0 away. Is it the roof? If you believe the numbers, perhaps investing in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is worth the risk.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady chose his job over his family, which is sad. He could have ended his historic career by riding off into the sunset with his model wife, three kids, relative health, many NFL records, and millions of dollars. Instead, he chose to live in a world where the Atlanta Falcons are leading his division, and the Christian McCaffrey-less Panthers didn’t allow him a touchdown. In terms of fantasy-relevant information, the way you beat the Rams is by throwing to your wide receivers. Emphasis on “wide” because the Rams defend well against slot WR (4th), as well as RB (4th). Mike Evans is the play here.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is due for an offensive explosion, and there may not be a better team to treat as the whipping boy than the Lions. The problem for us is that Green Bay has top-8-ranked environments for both passing and rushing. This might be an Aaron Jones spot, but basically, all the Packers are viable against the Lions defense, which is terrible against TE (29th), WR (30th), and RB (30th). The Lions allow the most yards and points per game. Giddy up.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk and this is why: the Raiders are a dismal 32nd in the league defending slot WRs, and Kirk spends ~65% of his routes there. Travis Etienne definitely gets involved in the passing game due to the Raiders' excellence in defending the run (5th). Trevor Lawrence is the conduit for Jacksonville, and will vulture rushing scores, so he is absolutely in play. Stack Lawrence-Etienne-Kirk if you think that the Raiders keep it close.
Passing game fades: Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Rams.
Rushing Game Targets
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia should obliterate the Texans on the ground. Houston’s defense is 31st-ranked EPA. Fire up Miles Sanders.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons don’t commit to a single back and also have a Konami-code QB, so the team should rush well overall. However, unless Cordarrelle Patterson is back, I can’t commit.
Detroit Lions
Detroit is dealing with a D’Andre Swift injury, so this is another tough spot. It could be Jamaal Williams again, so keep an eye on the injury report.
Chicago Bears
The Dolphins' run defense is actually 8th in EPA, but the Bears run so much and so well. Plus, there looks to be windy conditions predicted for this weekend in Chicago. David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are both viable.
Green Bay Packers
As stated in the passing game section, Aaron Jones could smash this week. Detroit is 28th in EPA and yards per rush, and Jones is known to catch his share of passes.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore still has a timeshare in place of JK Dobbins, so maybe this is another Kenyan Drake week. Perhaps it will be all Lamar Jackson. The better way to attack the Saints is with non-slot WRs, as New Orleans ranks 32nd against them. But Rashod Bateman is also hurt. When will the Ravens be healthy again?
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry came through in spades last week, and now he hopes to have an encore performance against the Chiefs. If we are being honest with ourselves, Tennessee will only win this game if they grind clock and yards with Henry. The Chiefs' passing offense is the second-highest recommendation this week, so something has to give. There is a narrow path to both scenarios hitting, though, so consider Mahomes-Kelce-Smith-Schuster-Henry lineups.
New Orleans Saints
Speaking of encores, Alvin Kamara would love a repeat of last week. The Ravens' rush defense is a middling 23rd against the run, and Kamara will catch ten-plus balls if that is what the script calls for.
Run game fades: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets.
(Stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and TruMedia Networks)
WATCH MORE: Which Chiefs playmaker is a better DFS option this week: Travis Kelce or Juju Smith-Schuster?
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