NFL Analysis
1/24/24
8 min read
Expect Jim Harbaugh To Remake Los Angeles Chargers In His Own Image
The smoke has cleared and Jim Harbaugh will be the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers.
After a few offseasons of flirting with an NFL return, Harbaugh comes to the Chargers after nine years at Michigan, including a 40-3 record during the past three seasons, and a national championship to cap that run. In his previous NFL stint, Harbaugh went 44-19-1 and made one Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers.
His record will stand out for a franchise that has not consistently won at the highest level. The Chargers have success in spurts, but sustaining it with postseason success has escaped them.
This is a major swing for matching or surpassing the Kansas City Chiefs as the class of the division, the conference and the league. The Chargers are no longer just hoping for a lucky break to get them there. The Chargers and luck don’t mix.
Harbaugh Wins Everywhere
Harbaugh brings a long, established track record of winning wherever he’s gone. He helped turn around a Stanford program that had one win in the season before he took over.
The 49ers were 5-10 in 2010 and then 13-3 in Harbaugh’s first season. He’ll have a similar setting of taking over a talented but underachieving team. After all, the Chargers went 5-12 last season.
If winning sets the culture, it would be hard to find a better culture-setter than Harbaugh.
Harbaugh has also been ahead of the curve in following trends and hiring coaches.
Greg Roman and Vic Fangio were not young coaches when they were hired to be Harbaugh’s coordinators in San Francisco, but they were the perfect fits for where the league was going.
Roman went on to help Lamar Jackson win an MVP award with the Baltimore Ravens, and Fangio is still an in-demand defensive coordinator, likely headed to the Philadelphia Eagles.
That was also the case with hires in college. Harbaugh hired Mike Macdonald as his defensive coordinator in 2021 after Macdonald spent years as an assistant with the Ravens. After an impressive year as coordinator, Macdonald was hired to that role with Baltimore and has been one of the league’s best defensive minds during the past two seasons.
He has the 5th best all-time winning percentage of all head coaches in the NFL. https://t.co/PgcOWdWW54
— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) January 24, 2024
Harbaugh replaced Macdonald with Jesse Minter, and the defense hasn’t skipped a beat. Minter could come with Harbaugh to LA as his defensive coordinator.
For that reason, Harbaugh was one of, if not the most sought-after candidate in this hiring cycle. But the draw was always to Los Angeles. Mileage may vary in how one would rank the Chargers' job among the open spots.
However, the Chargers have Justin Herbert and jobs with quarterbacks like Justin Herbert don’t come open that often.
How Harbaugh, Herbert Mesh Is Key
There might not be two personalities more different, at least externally, than the wild Harbaugh and reserved Hebert. The Chargers would like a championship, sure, but getting the most out of Herbert and how this relationship works will be the barometer for success for this hire.
To this point, it hasn’t been easy getting the most out of a supremely talented quarterback who has, at times, been considered the second-best passer in the league behind Patrick Mahomes.
Since Herbert entered the league, he’s 13th in EPA per play among quarterbacks, per TruMedia. That’s lower than the public perception of his talent level. He’s always looked better than those stats would indicate, with the ability to make throws few other quarterbacks could.
We’ve yet to see a fully formed Herbert. He’s been behind bad offensive lines and dealt with injuries to himself and his pass catchers. There’s also a disconnect between how strong Herbert’s arm is and how often he uses it in that way.
All reports around Herbert indicate he is coachable — so much so he’s robotically wired to take the progressions and hit the check-down even when his talent might allow him to extend plays a little longer. That should be a plus under Harbaugh and whatever offensive coaching staff he brings with him.
Harbaugh has gotten the most out of quarterbacks, even if his offensive philosophy doesn’t lend itself to dropping back and throwing 50 times a game. During his 49ers tenure, San Francisco was 31st in pass rate but ranked 12th in EPA per dropback.
Alex Smith ranked 22nd in EPA per play the year before Harbaugh took over, and that went up to 14th in their first year together. In 2012, Smith ranked 12th in EPA per play, and Colin Kaepernick ranked ninth.
Here’s the 49ers’ offensive EPA per play during the Harbaugh era as well as the three seasons before and after.
What Will The Offense Look Like?
Even though the Harbaugh Niners and Michigan teams were run-heavy, that doesn’t mean the Chargers will have a bottom-third run rate in 2024. Those rates deserve some context.
Harbaugh’s last NFL stint was a different time for offenses. After Kaepernick took over, the 49ers had a mobile quarterback in the boom of RPOs taking over the league. It made sense to run more.
In the college game, the gap between rushing efficiency and passing efficiency is much smaller, so a run-heavy approach can bring more value. It’s a good approach that Harbaugh got the most out of during his time in Ann Arbor.
Whether the Chargers become “run-heavy” or not might come down to the offensive coordinator and the still-unknown playcaller. Still, one philosophy that will remain true is the need to be physical along the lines.
That will be a priority for the Chargers, who have struggled to stay healthy and consistent on the offensive line.
Sort Out The Offensive Line
The Chargers’ intended starting five in 2023 lasted just 205 snaps when center Corey Linsley landed on injured reserve and missed the rest of the season because of a heart condition.
The team never recovered. Los Angeles ranked 29th in pass block win rate and 25th in run block win rate. Behind the bad blocking and struggles at running back, the running game was the worst in the league by EPA per play. The Chargers had the third-lowest rate of rushing attempts to gain 10 or more yards.
We’ll see how much the line changes or if there is just more to get out of the players in place. The left side is set with Rashawn Slater and Zion Johnson, but there are questions elsewhere.
Will Clapp, who filled in for Linsley, will be a free agent. However, the Chargers could also save nearly $9 million in cap space by moving on from Linsley.
RT Trey Pipkins was a nice development story and was re-signed to a three-year deal last offseason. But he allowed the second-most pressures at the position in 2023. Jamaree Salyer, a 2022 sixth-round pick, filled in at left tackle for Slater as a rookie but had struggles in his transition to right guard in 2023.
On top of that, RB Austin Ekeler will be a free agent.
Big Roster Decisions Await
The offensive line and run game will not be the only things shaped by Harbaugh. This roster could be cut down and built in the new coach’s vision. That was likely appealing to Harbaugh, who’s had some form of roster control for most of his career.
Los Angeles is about $46 million over the 2024 salary cap, but a few moves could slash that immediately. Those moves would involve some of the bigger names on the roster. Cutting LB Khalil Mack, who just had 17 sacks, would save $23.2 million. Releasing WR Mike Williams would open up $20 million. That almost gets the Chargers to the cap.
There will also be decisions made on DE Joey Bosa and WR Keenan Allen. Bosa played in just nine games in 2023 after playing five in 2022. He’s set to count for $36.6 million on the cap. Allen had 1,243 receiving yards in 13 games but will be 32 in April and counts for $34.7 million on the 2024 cap.
Harbaugh has a lot of things to figure out as he returns to the NFL, but this has the potential to be a massive win for the Chargers in the long run. Given Harbaugh’s history, the wins should not stop there.
