Analysis

9/15/23

7 min read

Fantasy Football: 2023 NFL Week 2 Projections Have New WR1

By Ben Wolbransky

Week 1 this season was one of the slowest in recent history. It was great football was back, but this was the lowest-scoring opening weekend dating back to at least 2000. Plus, there were many injuries shaking up the outcome of the season.

I spent the off-season building a projection model using machine learning to not overreact to the market while still considering key matchups. Players like Puka Nacua and Zay Flowers exceeded expectations in Week 1. While they’re startable in your fantasy leagues, tempering expectations is still good.

Good luck in Week 2!

Quarterbacks

Player Att Com Yds TDs Rush Yds TDs FFPTs Rank
Patrick Mahomes 39 25 304 2.5 3 21 0.2 25.1 1
Jalen Hurts 31 19 226 1.7 8 42 0.6 24.0 2
Josh Allen 34 22 244 2.4 4 20 0.4 23.6 2
Trevor Lawrence 37 25 279 1.9 4 22 0.3 22.8 4
Lamar Jackson 30 21 209 1.6 5 37 0.7 22.7 5
Daniel Jones 32 21 217 1.5 8 43 0.5 21.8 6
Joe Burrow 37 25 267 2.2 3 11 0.2 21.8 7
Tua Tagovailoa 36 23 272 2.1 4 13 0.2 21.7 8
Justin Herbert 36 24 285 2.2 4 10 0.1 21.5 9
Justin Fields 31 20 227 1.3 8 48 0.4 21.4 10
Deshaun Watson 32 21 238 1.5 7 40 0.2 21.2 11
Dak Prescott 36 24 249 2.0 3 14 0.3 21.1 12
Jared Goff 36 22 293 2.0 3 6 0.1 21.0 13
Anthony Richardson 29 18 205 1.3 8 51 0.3 20.4 14
Kirk Cousins 37 24 253 1.8 3 8 0.1 19.0 15
Jordan Love 31 20 232 1.8 2 13 0.2 18.6 16
Russell Wilson 34 22 229 1.7 3 15 0.2 18.6 17
Mac Jones 36 23 261 1.6 3 6 0.1 18.6 18
Derek Carr 33 20 249 1.7 3 12 0.1 18.4 19
Ryan Tannehill 30 19 247 1.5 3 9 0.2 18.2 20
Baker Mayfield 33 19 217 1.8 3 11 0.1 17.7 21
Jimmy Garoppolo 34 22 254 1.4 3 10 0.1 17.6 22
Geno Smith 32 21 224 1.6 3 14 0.1 17.5 23
Brock Purdy 31 21 219 1.8 2 3 0.2 17.4 24
Bryce Young 32 20 200 1.6 3 20 0.1 17.2 25
CJ Stroud 32 21 215 1.4 3 16 0.1 16.8 26
Sam Howell 31 19 223 1.1 3 21 0.2 16.6 27
Matthew Stafford 35 23 239 1.5 3 2 0.1 16.2 28
Kenny Pickett 31 19 195 1.3 4 16 0.2 15.7 29
Zach Wilson 35 22 211 1.3 2 6 0.1 14.8 30
Desmond Ridder 28 18 176 1.3 3 15 0.2 14.5 31
Joshua Dobbs 31 19 185 1.0 3 10 0.2 13.3 32

Patrick Mahomes (QB1)

Patrick Mahomes was the projected QB2 last week without his main man, TE Travis Kelce. With Kelce back, Mahomes re-enters QB1 territory. If Anthony Richardson looked impressive against this Jacksonville Jaguars defense, there should be no doubts about Mahomes coming off a loss.

Lamar Jackson (QB5)

Lamar Jackson was the projected QB1 last week before Mark Andrew’s injury. Though Jackson impressed in the passing game thanks to his Flowers, he still finished as the QB27. His six rush attempts were the fewest he’s had in a full game since Week 1 of 2022. The loss of RB J.K. Dobbins may fuel Jackson’s rush attack more.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB8)

After finishing as the QB1 in an impressive Week 1 victory, Tua Tagovailoa enters top-10 QB territory. His stats are predominantly driven by Tyreek Hill’s 122 projected receiving yards, but Tagovailoa was in MVP conversations prior to his injuries in 2022. He is a good quarterback and is a mid-to-low-end QB1 moving forward.

Wide Receivers

Name Tgt Rec Yds TDs FFPTS Rank
Tyreek Hill 14 9 122 0.8 22.5 1
Justin Jefferson 12 8 110 0.6 19.2 2
Ja'Marr Chase 11 7 91 0.8 17.9 3
Amon-Ra St. Brown 10 7 88 0.8 17.8 4
Jaylen Waddle 10 7 96 0.7 17.7 5
CeeDee Lamb 10 7 81 0.7 16.3 6
Calvin Ridley 11 7 96 0.5 16.1 7
Chris Olave 10 7 90 0.6 15.8 8
Keenan Allen 10 6 86 0.6 15.3 9
Stefon Diggs 10 6 75 0.7 15.1 10
A.J. Brown 9 6 79 0.6 14.7 11
Davante Adams 10 6 74 0.6 14.3 12
DeAndre Hopkins 9 6 81 0.5 14.2 13
Amari Cooper 9 6 76 0.6 13.8 14
Christian Watson 8 5 63 0.7 13.7 15
Mike Evans 9 5 64 0.7 12.9 16
Brandon Aiyuk 8 5 61 0.6 12.9 17
Tee Higgins 9 6 74 0.4 12.6 18
DK Metcalf 8 5 68 0.5 12.5 19
Jahan Dotson 9 6 64 0.3 12.3 20
Jerry Jeudy 8 5 62 0.5 12.1 21
Chris Godwin 7 4 52 0.6 12.1 22
Garrett Wilson 10 6 63 0.4 11.9 23
DeVonta Smith 8 5 62 0.5 11.8 24
DJ Moore 7 5 68 0.4 11.6 25
Deebo Samuel 7 5 48 0.3 11.5 26
Michael Pittman Jr. 8 5 58 0.4 11.4 27
Puka Nacua 9 6 60 0.4 11.2 28
Terry McLaurin 7 4 62 0.4 11.2 29
Kendrick Bourne 8 4 58 0.4 11.1 30
Jakobi Meyers 8 5 63 0.2 10.6 31
Drake London 7 5 56 0.4 10.6 32
George Pickens 7 5 51 0.4 10.5 33
Courtland Sutton 7 4 53 0.5 10.5 34
Elijah Moore 7 4 65 0.2 10.3 35
Tyler Lockett 7 4 51 0.5 10.1 36
Gabe Davis 7 4 54 0.5 10.1 37
Nico Collins 7 4 61 0.3 10.0 38
Christian Kirk 6 4 47 0.4 9.9 39
Zay Jones 7 4 47 0.4 9.7 40
Marquise Brown 8 4 53 0.4 9.7 41
Michael Thomas 8 5 54 0.2 9.3 42
Treylon Burks 5 3 43 0.5 9.2 43
Zay Flowers 7 5 41 0.2 9.2 44
JuJu Smith-Schuster 6 4 43 0.4 9.1 45
Mike Williams 6 4 50 0.3 8.7 46
Van Jefferson 6 4 44 0.4 8.6 47
Skyy Moore 6 4 48 0.2 8.5 48
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 6 4 57 0.2 8.5 49
Jordan Addison 6 4 44 0.3 8.3 50
Darnell Mooney 6 4 50 0.2 8.2 51
Brandin Cooks 6 4 39 0.3 8.2 52
Adam Thielen 5 4 37 0.4 7.9 53
Romeo Doubs 5 3 36 0.5 7.8 54
Rashod Bateman 6 4 48 0.2 7.8 55
Allen Lazard 7 4 41 0.3 7.7 56
Tutu Atwell 6 4 46 0.1 7.7 57
Rashid Shaheed 5 3 41 0.2 7.6 58
Josh Reynolds 6 4 47 0.2 7.5 59
Darius Slayton 6 3 43 0.2 7.3 60
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6 3 40 0.2 7.2 61
Odell Beckham Jr. 5 3 39 0.2 7.0 62
Tyler Boyd 4 3 34 0.3 6.9 63
Jonathan Mingo 4 3 34 0.3 6.7 64
Robert Woods 6 3 34 0.2 6.5 65
Rashee Rice 4 2 31 0.4 6.5 66
Isaiah Hodgins 4 3 32 0.3 6.4 67
Michael Gallup 5 3 33 0.3 6.3 68
Jayden Reed 5 4 42 0.0 6.2 69
Alec Pierce 5 2 35 0.2 6.1 70
DJ Chark 4 2 32 0.3 6.0 71
Quentin Johnston 4 2 34 0.2 5.9 72
K.J. Osborn 4 3 26 0.2 5.8 73
John Metchie III 4 2 31 0.2 5.8 74
Jameson Williams 3 2 28 0.3 5.3 75
Terrace Marshall Jr. 5 3 33 0.1 5.2 76
Josh Downs 4 3 33 0.1 5.2 77
Parris Campbell 4 3 23 0.1 4.9 78
Marvin Jones Jr. 4 2 33 0.1 4.8 79
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 3 2 24 0.3 4.7 80

Tyreek Hill (WR1)

Tyreek Hill is in a league of his own as the only wide receiver projected for more than 20 fantasy points. During the offseason, Hill was quoted as wanting to break 2,000 receiving yards. He’s certainly on pace to do so, and even my model thinks he has a shot. The division matchup against the New England Patriots, who did a good job of shutting down the Philadelphia Eagles last week, won’t be as formidable for Hill as the Chargers’ defense. Still, his 14 projected targets and 29 percent projected target share are among the highest in Week 2.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR13)

DeAndre Hopkins had an astonishing 39.4 percent target share in Week 1, ranking third highest behind just rookies Flowers and Nacua. This week, he faces up against the Los Angeles Chargers defense that just got sliced and diced by the Miami Dolphins. If Hopkins’ target share remains high, he could have himself high-end WR1 numbers. Unfortunately, Ryan Tannehill had a measly 47.1 completion percentage in Week 1.

Chris Godwin (WR22) and Mike Evans (WR16)

Surprisingly, Baker Mayfield was able to sustain fantasy-relevant days for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They’re both projected as top-24 WRs this week against a Chicago defense that allowed the third-highest Net Yards per Attempt last week. They are both startable as low-end WR2s.

Running Backs

Name Rush Yds TDs Tgt Rec Yds TDs FFPTS Rank
Christian McCaffrey 16 80 0.7 5 4 30 0.3 19.2 1
Bijan Robinson 18 90 0.7 4 3 25 0.2 18.8 2
Austin Ekeler 15 59 0.6 6 5 43 0.3 17.6 3
Nick Chubb 17 90 0.7 3 3 22 0.1 17.5 4
Tony Pollard 18 87 0.4 4 3 29 0.3 17.3 5
Saquon Barkley 19 77 0.7 5 3 26 0.2 17.1 6
Derrick Henry 20 82 0.8 3 2 23 0.1 17.0 7
Rhamondre Stevenson 16 50 0.5 7 6 59 0.1 17.0 8
Travis Etienne 17 70 0.5 5 4 35 0.1 16.2 9
Kenneth Walker III 16 69 0.7 4 3 27 0.0 15.4 10
Joe Mixon 16 61 0.5 6 4 28 0.1 14.6 11
Josh Jacobs 16 70 0.5 4 3 25 0.0 14.6 12
Javonte Williams 13 56 0.5 5 3 31 0.2 14.4 13
Raheem Mostert 15 76 0.4 4 3 21 0.1 14.3 14
Rachaad White 17 58 0.5 4 3 21 0.2 13.6 15
James Cook 15 66 0.2 4 3 23 0.2 13.2 16
James Conner 15 61 0.4 4 3 20 0.2 13.1 17
Najee Harris 15 59 0.5 4 3 15 0.2 13.0 18
Aaron Jones 14 63 0.3 5 3 22 0.2 12.9 19
Alexander Mattison 15 62 0.4 3 2 14 0.1 11.8 20
Jamaal Williams 15 64 0.4 2 1 11 0.1 11.5 21
Breece Hall 10 49 0.2 4 3 28 0.1 11.4 22
Dameon Pierce 14 55 0.5 3 2 15 0.1 11.4 23
Jahmyr Gibbs 10 37 0.4 3 2 25 0.2 11.2 24
David Montgomery 14 51 0.7 1 1 9 0.1 10.9 25
Miles Sanders 17 71 0.4 3 2 6 0.0 10.9 26
A.J. Dillon 11 48 0.6 2 2 11 0.1 10.8 27
Cam Akers 12 49 0.5 1 1 8 0.2 10.4 28
Isiah Pacheco 11 44 0.3 3 2 22 0.2 10.4 29
Samaje Perine 10 41 0.3 4 3 23 0.2 10.4 30
Khalil Herbert 11 47 0.4 3 2 20 0.0 10.1 31
Justice Hill 15 63 0.1 1 1 6 0.3 10.0 32
Brian Robinson Jr. 15 47 0.5 2 2 13 0.1 10.0 33
Ezekiel Elliott 9 27 0.4 5 4 26 0.0 9.8 34
Tyler Allgeier 10 47 0.3 4 3 17 0.0 9.5 35
Kenneth Gainwell 11 42 0.4 2 2 12 0.1 9.1 36
Antonio Gibson 10 32 0.2 3 2 17 0.2 8.2 37
Jaylen Warren 10 39 0.2 3 3 17 0.0 8.0 38
Jerome Ford 8 36 0.1 3 2 18 0.1 7.9 39
Dalvin Cook 10 40 0.2 3 2 12 0.1 7.9 40
Elijah Mitchell 8 46 0.3 1 1 6 0.0 7.8 41
Kyren Williams 10 39 0.1 3 2 18 0.1 7.7 42
Roschon Johnson 6 27 0.2 3 2 20 0.1 7.4 43
Zack Moss 8 38 0.3 1 1 7 0.0 7.2 44
Jerick McKinnon 3 12 0.2 4 3 23 0.2 7.1 45
D'Andre Swift 3 14 0.2 3 2 20 0.2 6.8 46
Devin Singletary 8 35 0.2 1 1 6 0.1 6.6 47
Damien Harris 5 22 0.4 1 1 9 0.0 6.5 48
Evan Hull 7 29 0.3 2 1 9 0.0 6.4 49
Salvon Ahmed 6 24 0.2 3 2 12 0.2 6.4 50
Deon Jackson 7 24 0.3 2 2 11 0.0 6.2 51
Tank Bigsby 7 29 0.2 2 1 11 0.1 6.2 52
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 18 0.2 3 2 14 0.1 6.0 53
Chris Evans 4 18 0.2 2 1 16 0.1 5.9 54
Chuba Hubbard 7 35 0.2 2 1 7 0.0 5.9 55
Zach Charbonnet 5 20 0.2 2 1 10 0.1 5.2 56
Joshua Kelley 6 24 0.1 1 1 7 0.1 4.7 57
Sean Tucker 5 18 0.1 2 1 9 0.1 4.6 58
Keaontay Ingram 7 28 0.2 1 0 2 0.0 4.6 59
Gus Edwards 6 24 0.2 1 0 2 0.0 4.6 60

Saquon Barkley (RB6)

Saquon Barkley was my model’s RB5 last week, and his RB31 finish was all but encouraging. It’s safe to say that Week 1’s data for New York isn’t incredibly valuable. Even if New York’s offense isn’t what it once was projected to be, Barkley is still a top-10 option at the running back position, given volume and talent.

Javonte Williams (RB13)

This model projected Javonte Williams to be the season-long WR21. His Week 1 usage (highest team target share AND rushing share) bodes well for his outlook moving forward. Jerry Jeudy is currently projected to play in Week 2; if he doesn’t, Williams’ target share and overall fantasy finish will take a small uptick.

Najee Harris (RB18)

There are some concerns with Najee Harris’ workload, given he only played eight more snaps than teammate Jaylen Warren, but Harris saw twice as many rushes and was in a negative game script for the entire game. This week, the Steelers take on a very impressive Browns defense, which doesn’t bode well for this Pittsburgh offense. I’m still bullish on Harris as a top-16 RB, but you won’t see that this week against the Cleveland Browns.

Tight Ends

Name Tgt Rec Yds TDs FFPTS Rank
Travis Kelce 9 6 80 0.7 15.3 1
Mark Andrews 8 5 61 0.4 11.4 2
T.J. Hockenson 9 6 54 0.5 11.3 3
Darren Waller 7 5 55 0.3 9.9 4
Kyle Pitts 6 4 47 0.4 9.0 5
George Kittle 5 4 48 0.3 8.7 6
Evan Engram 6 4 40 0.4 8.4 7
Pat Freiermuth 5 3 34 0.6 8.3 8
Tyler Higbee 6 4 46 0.2 8.2 9
Hunter Henry 5 3 40 0.4 8.0 10
David Njoku 6 4 38 0.3 7.8 11
Hayden Hurst 6 4 40 0.3 7.7 12
Cole Kmet 6 4 38 0.3 7.7 13
Sam LaPorta 5 3 37 0.3 7.2 14
Dallas Goedert 6 3 40 0.2 7.1 15
Dalton Schultz 5 3 33 0.4 7.0 16
Juwan Johnson 5 3 34 0.3 6.8 17
Dalton Kincaid 4 3 34 0.2 6.3 18
Dawson Knox 3 2 21 0.5 6.2 19
Logan Thomas 6 3 36 0.1 6.1 20
Mike Gesicki 4 3 31 0.3 6.0 21
Taysom Hill 1 1 7 0.2 5.8 22
Chigoziem Okonkwo 4 2 31 0.2 5.7 23
Gerald Everett 4 3 30 0.2 5.5 24
Jake Ferguson 4 3 22 0.3 5.3 25
Zach Ertz 5 3 29 0.1 5.1 26
Durham Smythe 4 2 19 0.3 5.0 27
Adam Trautman 5 3 25 0.1 4.5 28
Luke Musgrave 4 3 25 0.1 4.5 29

Travis Kelce (TE1)

Kelce is expected to return this week. Even if he isn’t 100 percent, he’s a much better option than we dealt with in Week 1.

Hayden Hurst (TE12)

Hayden Hurst becomes an intriguing option after leading the Carolina Panthers in target share in Week 1 and the NFL in TE fantasy points. Teammate WR DJ Chark is expected to return this week, but Hurst remains a solid option given the ever-baron tight-end wasteland.

Sam LaPorta (TE14)

Sam LaPorta was projected as the season-long TE15. LaPorta’s five receptions were the most a rookie TE saw in his first game since 2019 TJ Hockenson. His weekly numbers will continue to creep upward as long as he continues to be a major contributor to this offense.

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Tags: Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Fantasy Football See More

Ben Wolbransky

Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.

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