Analysis

9/20/23

8 min read

Fantasy Football: 2023 NFL Week 3 Projections Joe Burrow Falls

By Ben Wolbransky

Week 2 comes to a close, and all eyes are looking ahead to Week 3. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the NFL moving forward given the unfortunate injuries to Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, David Montgomery and Jamaal Williams. 

I spent the offseason building a projection model using machine learning to navigate uncertainty and consider key matchups. Use these projections to identify your best fantasy players for Week 3 — or challenge my model’s assumptions.

Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. A great example of this was Puka Nacua after Week 1.

In Week 2, the model projected him for a 30 percent target share, but the final step of this model is to regress him back to an average wide receiver until he proves Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. After showing out again in Week 2, Nacua is now projected for a 28 percent target share. Still, history tells us it’s unlikely Nauca earns targets at this historic rate.

Good luck in Week 3.

Quarterbacks

Player Att. Comp. PassYds PasssTD Rush RshYds RshTDs FFPTs Rank
Patrick Mahomes 39 25 308 2.8 4 23 0.1 26.7 1
Josh Allen 37 25 280 2.2 5 29 0.3 24.6 2
Tua Tagovailoa 36 23 310 2.4 3 9 0.1 23.7 3
Kirk Cousins 37 24 308 2.3 3 8 0.1 23.3 4
Jalen Hurts 28 19 214 1.9 8 39 0.5 23.2 5
Trevor Lawrence 37 24 262 2.1 3 20 0.3 22.7 6
Jalen Hurts 29 20 213 1.6 8 35 0.6 22.0 7
Justin Herbert 36 24 258 2.5 4 12 0.1 21.8 8
Dak Prescott 34 23 237 2.3 2 8 0.3 20.8 9
Justin Fields 31 19 203 1.1 7 40 0.4 18.9 10
Joe Burrow 34 22 231 1.9 2 7 0.2 18.6 11
Anthony Richardson 28 18 169 1.1 8 50 0.4 18.6 12
Russell Wilson 32 21 230 1.7 3 18 0.2 18.5 13
Deshaun Watson 34 20 228 1.3 5 24 0.3 18.4 14
Geno Smith 32 22 224 1.9 2 11 0.1 18.4 15
Jordan Love 30 18 216 1.7 2 14 0.2 18.0 16
Jared Goff 36 23 241 1.8 1 4 0.1 17.9 17
Derek Carr 33 20 245 1.6 2 11 0.1 17.5 18
Daniel Jones 34 22 212 0.2 8 42 0.7 17.3 19
Matthew Stafford 35 22 239 1.7 3 2 0.1 17.1 20
Mac Jones 39 26 249 1.5 3 6 0.1 17.0 21
Brock Purdy 29 20 206 1.9 2 3 0.2 17.0 22
Jimmy Garoppolo 29 20 212 1.6 3 11 0.1 17.0 23
Sam Howell 31 19 214 1.2 3 25 0.2 16.9 24
C.J. Stroud 36 23 225 1.2 3 18 0.1 16.5 25
Kenny Pickett 35 21 217 1.2 3 13 0.2 16.1 26
Bryce Young 34 21 225 1.2 3 13 0.1 15.9 27
Joshua Dobbs 34 22 202 0.9 5 29 0.2 15.5 28
Ryan Tannehill 30 19 199 1.3 3 8 0.1 14.8 29
Desmond Ridder 27 17 182 1.3 3 14 0.1 14.7 30
Baker Mayfield 30 20 201 1.3 2 6 0.1 14.6 31
Zach Wilson 29 18 196 1.4 2 6 0.1 14.6 32

Tua Tagovailoa (QB3)

After entering last week's top-10 quarterbacks, Tua Tagovailoa now finds himself in the top five. He’s certainly looking like he was the late-round quarterback to target. His Week 3 matchup against the Denver Broncos looks like a juicy one because Denver has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt against opposing quarterbacks, which ranks seventh this season despite facing mediocre quarterbacks in Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell.

Kirk Cousins (QB4)

Regression has come for the Minnesota Vikings, and while it’s been awful for Vikings fans, it’s been great for Kirk Cousins as a fantasy quarterback. The Vikings' negative game scripts have turned into 88 pass attempts (fourth-most) and eight yards per attempt (third-most) for Cousins. That, plus a 54-point total for the Vikings against the Los Angeles Chargers, should lead to plenty of points for Cousins.

Joe Burrow (QB11)

Joe Burrow is no longer in the model’s top-10 quarterbacks and finds himself in a difficult spot. He is the QB32 in fantasy football. We know what his ceiling looks like — in 2021, Burrow led the entire NFL in yards per attempt and finished as fantasy’s QB4 just a year later. Until Burrow navigates his health issues or gets his game right, he’s difficult to trust in fantasy leagues.

Wide Receivers

Player Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs FFPTS Rank
Tyreek Hill 11 7 104 0.8 19.7 1
Justin Jefferson 11 7 119 0.6 19.7 2
CeeDee Lamb 9 6 84 0.8 16.2 3
Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 6 70 0.7 15.7 4
Stefon Diggs 10 7 78 0.6 14.9 5
Calvin Ridley 10 7 80 0.5 14.3 6
Chris Olave 9 6 83 0.5 14.2 7
Keenan Allen 9 6 73 0.6 14.1 8
Davante Adams 8 6 72 0.5 13.6 9
Ja'Marr Chase 10 6 65 0.6 13.3 10
Puka Nacua 10 6 68 0.4 13.2 11
Brandon Aiyuk 7 5 64 0.6 13.0 12
Jaylen Waddle 7 4 67 0.6 12.9 13
DK Metcalf 8 5 67 0.6 12.7 14
Mike Evans 9 6 72 0.4 12.6 15
A.J. Brown 8 5 67 0.5 12.6 16
Christian Watson 7 4 56 0.7 12.3 17
Amari Cooper 9 5 69 0.4 12.2 18
Terry McLaurin 8 5 65 0.4 12.2 19
DeAndre Hopkins 9 5 64 0.4 11.6 20
DeVonta Smith 7 5 61 0.5 11.6 21
Chris Godwin 6 4 42 0.3 10.9 22
Deebo Samuel 7 4 44 0.3 10.7 23
Tee Higgins 8 5 59 0.4 10.5 24
Jahan Dotson 8 5 52 0.3 10.5 25
Michael Thomas 8 5 60 0.3 10.4 26
George Pickens 9 5 51 0.3 10.3 27
Michael Pittman Jr. 8 5 52 0.3 10.2 28
Gabe Davis 6 4 56 0.4 9.9 29
Garrett Wilson 7 4 49 0.5 9.9 30
Tutu Atwell 7 4 53 0.3 9.8 31
Elijah Moore 8 4 56 0.2 9.6 32
Tyler Lockett 7 5 42 0.5 9.6 33
Jerry Jeudy 6 4 48 0.4 9.6 34
Jordan Addison 6 4 48 0.5 9.5 35
DJ Moore 6 4 54 0.3 9.5 36
Nico Collins 7 5 56 0.2 9.4 37
Jakobi Meyers 8 5 56 0.0 9.2 38
Marquise Brown 8 5 49 0.3 9.0 39
Kendrick Bourne 8 5 41 0.3 9.0 40
Christian Kirk 6 4 39 0.4 8.9 41
Zay Jones 6 4 39 0.4 8.8 42
Skyy Moore 5 3 44 0.4 8.7 43
Drake London 5 3 43 0.4 8.3 44
Adam Thielen 6 4 47 0.3 8.3 45
Josh Reynolds 7 4 48 0.2 8.3 46
Mike Williams 6 4 44 0.3 8.2 47
Courtland Sutton 6 4 43 0.4 8.2 48
Zay Flowers 5 4 46 0.2 7.9 49
Robert Woods 7 5 39 0.2 7.4 50
Treylon Burks 4 3 35 0.4 7.4 51
Rashid Shaheed 4 3 42 0.2 7.4 52
DeVante Parker 6 4 38 0.2 7.2 53
Jonathan Mingo 5 3 39 0.2 6.9 54
K.J. Osborn 5 3 33 0.3 6.8 55
Romeo Doubs 5 2 30 0.4 6.7 56
Rashod Bateman 5 3 32 0.3 6.5 57
Allen Lazard 5 3 33 0.3 6.5 58
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5 3 30 0.3 6.4 59
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 5 3 39 0.1 6.3 60
Darius Slayton 6 4 42 0.0 6.2 61
Brandin Cooks 4 2 27 0.4 6.0 62
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 4 2 30 0.3 5.9 63
Jayden Reed 5 3 39 0.0 5.7 64
JuJu Smith-Schuster 5 3 25 0.2 5.5 65
Nelson Agholor 4 2 29 0.1 5.5 66
Allen Robinson 6 3 30 0.1 5.4 67
John Metchie III 4 2 29 0.2 5.4 68
Quentin Johnston 4 2 29 0.2 5.4 69
Darnell Mooney 4 3 31 0.2 5.4 70
Mack Hollins 5 3 33 0.1 5.2 71
Tyler Boyd 4 2 24 0.3 5.1 72
Chase Claypool 4 2 26 0.1 5.0 73
Isaiah Hodgins 5 3 30 0.1 5.0 74

Tyreek Hill (WR1), Justin Jefferson (WR2)

Right now, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson are the best two wide receivers in the NFL. Though both players are projected for 19.7 points, Jefferson is projected to tally 15 more receiving yards than Hill.

The difference is Jefferson hasn’t yet scored a touchdown yet. The Miami Dolphins (vs. the Broncos) and the Minnesota (vs. the Chargers) are facing bottom-seven secondaries. If Jefferson comes down with his first touchdown of the season, he’s likely to be the week's WR1. 

Puka Nacua (WR11)

This model is starting to believe in Nacua. After being projected with just nine targets as the WR28 last week, Nacua tallied a rookie record with 20. Target share is one of the stickiest metrics, even for rookies. Nacua is now projected as a WR1 for the first time this season. Especially in PPR formats, Nacua is a monster and is simply a must-start.

A.J. Brown (WR16), DeVonta Smith (WR21)

Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles' offense haven’t been struggling this season — but they have a different identity. After finishing in the top 10 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback on passing plays last season, they now sit bottom 10.

Kenneth Gainwell dominated on the ground in Week 1, and D’Andre Swift found himself doing the same in Week 2. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are must-starts in fantasy football, but expectations must be tempered. 

Running Backs

Player Rushes RushYards RushTDs Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs FFPTS Rank
Christian McCaffrey 14 71 0.6 5 4 26 0.3 17.4 1
Bijan Robinson 16 75 0.6 4 3 22 0.3 17.0 2
Tony Pollard 16 69 0.5 5 4 31 0.3 17.0 3
Derrick Henry 19 74 0.7 4 3 24 0.1 15.5 4
Jahmyr Gibbs 12 51 0.4 5 4 30 0.3 14.4 5
Joe Mixon 17 73 0.4 5 3 23 0.1 14.1 6
Austin Ekeler 11 50 0.6 4 3 22 0.3 14.1 7
Kenneth Walker III 15 64 0.7 4 3 18 0.0 13.7 8
Kyren Williams 14 58 0.4 4 3 25 0.2 13.7 9
Travis Etienne 16 66 0.5 4 3 15 0.2 13.7 10
Jerome Ford 17 63 0.6 3 2 18 0.1 13.7 11
James Cook 13 62 0.2 5 4 31 0.2 13.5 12
Javonte Williams 12 53 0.4 5 3 30 0.2 13.4 13
Josh Jacobs 13 55 0.5 4 3 21 0.2 13.3 14
Brian Robinson Jr. 18 72 0.5 3 2 16 0.1 13.1 15
Raheem Mostert 14 68 0.3 2 2 12 0.2 12.3 16
Rhamondre Stevenson 13 60 0.3 4 3 23 0.1 12.1 17
Zack Moss 17 76 0.3 3 2 15 0.0 12.1 18
Najee Harris 11 49 0.6 3 2 14 0.2 12.0 19
James Conner 14 58 0.3 4 3 17 0.1 11.6 20
Jaylen Warren 7 32 0.5 6 4 28 0.1 11.3 21
Aaron Jones 12 53 0.2 4 3 20 0.2 11.2 22
Tyler Allgeier 13 54 0.5 3 2 13 0.1 11.1 23
Alexander Mattison 15 50 0.5 3 2 14 0.1 10.8 24
Breece Hall 10 47 0.2 3 2 23 0.1 10.4 25
Miles Sanders 15 54 0.5 4 2 9 0.0 10.3 26
D'Andre Swift 9 41 0.2 4 3 25 0.2 10.2 27
Samaje Perine 9 42 0.2 4 3 23 0.1 10.1 28
Khalil Herbert 11 50 0.3 4 2 21 0.0 10.0 29
Isiah Pacheco 10 42 0.3 3 2 17 0.2 9.9 30
Dameon Pierce 14 49 0.4 3 2 10 0.1 9.8 31
Rachaad White 8 28 0.5 4 3 19 0.1 9.8 32
Matt Breida 9 38 0.6 3 2 15 0.0 9.7 33
AJ Dillon 9 40 0.5 2 1 11 0.1 9.2 34
Justice Hill 11 43 0.4 2 1 9 0.0 8.5 35
Joshua Kelley 10 40 0.1 3 2 18 0.1 8.4 36
Ezekiel Elliott 7 28 0.4 3 2 15 0.0 8.1 37
Kenneth Gainwell 8 31 0.3 2 1 11 0.1 7.6 38
Roschon Johnson 6 29 0.2 3 2 19 0.0 7.4 39
Dalvin Cook 9 39 0.2 2 2 10 0.1 7.3 40
Elijah Mitchell 8 41 0.3 1 1 6 0.0 7.1 41
Antonio Gibson 4 17 0.2 3 2 16 0.3 7.0 42
Chuba Hubbard 6 26 0.2 3 2 19 0.0 6.8 43
Tony Jones Jr. 9 35 0.2 1 1 8 0.1 6.6 44
Damien Harris 5 23 0.4 2 1 12 0.0 6.5 45
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 5 18 0.3 2 1 15 0.2 6.4 46
Devin Singletary 6 20 0.2 3 2 15 0.1 6.4 47
Gus Edwards 9 40 0.2 1 0 2 0.1 6.0 48
Jerick McKinnon 2 8 0.2 3 2 17 0.2 5.8 49
Salvon Ahmed 4 14 0.1 3 2 17 0.1 5.5 50
Zach Charbonnet 5 20 0.3 2 1 9 0.1 5.5 51
Kendre Miller 6 25 0.2 1 1 9 0.1 5.5 52
Tank Bigsby 5 23 0.2 2 1 9 0.1 5.4 53
Saquon Barkley 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 5.1 54
De'Von Achane 3 13 0.2 2 2 13 0.1 4.9 55
Eric Gray 6 0 0.5 2 2 12 0.0 4.8 56
Deon Jackson 4 15 0.2 1 1 5 0.0 4.1 57
Zamir White 3 14 0.2 1 1 7 0.1 4.0 58
Ty Chandler 4 14 0.1 2 1 8 0.1 3.9 59
Pierre Strong Jr. 7 22 0.1 1 1 5 0.0 3.9 60

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB5)

With Montgomery sidelined, Jahmyr Gibbs could be catapulted into an elite top-five running back role. My model doesn’t have Gibbs taking over all of the rushing work, but the 12 projected carries plus receiving upside make Gibbs a no-brainer top-5 running back if all goes as planned.

The Detroit Lions face the Atlanta Falcons, who are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and who have been slightly worse than the NFL average (4.0 YPC allowed) against rushers so far this season.

Kenneth Walker (RB8)

Before Week 2 started, I called out on X, formerly known as Twitter, how high my model was on Kenneth Walker (the previous week’s projected RB10). Walker finished as the RB8.

Walker is third in red zone carries despite having a Jerome Bettis–esque stat line of eight rushes, three yards and two touchdowns. Every week Geno Smith doesn’t turn into a pumpkin, and Walker continues to hold off Zach Charbonnet, Walker is an easy top-10 play.

Najee Harris (RB19), Jaylen Warren (RB21)

Week 2 was a turning point for this Pittsburgh Steelers running back duo. Najee Harris is still the 1A, but in the second half, Jaylen Warren out-touched Harris six to four. Depending on how you split the data, Warren has been more efficient on his touches this season.

Warren looks like he was worth a dart throw, while Harris looks to be a bust for a second straight season. Both are low-end RB2/Flex options in Week 3, but given their draft capital, it’s easier to get excited about starting Warren.

Tight Ends

Player Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs FFPTS Rank
Travis Kelce 10 7 84 0.8 16.7 1
Mark Andrews 7 5 56 0.7 11.9 2
T.J. Hockenson 8 6 48 0.6 11.1 3
Darren Waller 8 5 52 0.0 8.0 4
George Kittle 5 4 40 0.3 7.7 5
Dalton Kincaid 5 3 42 0.3 7.7 6
Evan Engram 6 4 33 0.4 7.5 7
Dawson Knox 5 3 34 0.3 7.1 8
Cole Kmet 6 4 36 0.3 7.1 9
Sam LaPorta 6 4 40 0.1 6.9 10
Hayden Hurst 6 3 35 0.2 6.6 11
Hunter Henry 5 3 32 0.3 6.4 12
Jake Ferguson 5 3 28 0.3 6.4 13
Zach Ertz 8 4 36 0.1 6.4 14
Pat Freiermuth 5 3 28 0.4 6.3 15
Kyle Pitts 4 3 33 0.3 6.3 16
David Njoku 5 3 29 0.3 6.0 17
Tyler Higbee 4 3 29 0.3 6.0 18
Durham Smythe 5 3 27 0.3 5.8 19
Taysom Hill 2 1 11 0.1 5.7 20
Dallas Goedert 5 3 28 0.2 5.7 21
Juwan Johnson 4 2 28 0.3 5.6 22
Gerald Everett 4 2 25 0.2 5.0 23
Dalton Schultz 3 2 18 0.3 4.7 24
Mike Gesicki 4 3 23 0.2 4.5 25
Noah Gray 3 2 27 0.1 4.4 26
Luke Musgrave 4 2 24 0.1 4.3 27
Chigoziem Okonkwo 3 2 21 0.2 4.3 28
Noah Fant 3 2 17 0.2 4.1 29

Travis Kelce (TE1)

Travis Kelce was clearly not 100 percent last week. In Week 2, Kelce’s 2.9 yards per target were his fourth-lowest ever as a starter. He still finished as Week 2’s TE4. Kelce will need to bounce back in a big way to reclaim a shot as the fantasy TE1; he’s 11.5 points behind T.J. Hockenson. For projection purposes, it’s easy to project another TE1 week for Kelce.

Sam LaPorta (TE10)

Welcome to the top 10, Sam LaPorta. After totaling five receptions in both games, LaPorta sits as fantasy’s TE9. LaPorta has only seen one red zone target. But this week, he goes up against the Falcons, who have allowed the ninth-most yards and seventh-most touchdowns to tight ends since the start of 2021. Week 3 could be LaPorta’s breakout week. 

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Tags: A.J. Brown, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons See More

Ben Wolbransky

Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.

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