Analysis

10/4/23

8 min read

Fantasy Football: 2023 NFL Week 5 Projections, Josh Allen Hits No. 1

By Ben Wolbransky

Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 5 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and projected rank.

Three write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.

Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. A great example of this was Puka Nacua after Week 1. In Week 2, the model projected him for a 30 percent target share, but the final step of the model is to regress him back to an average wide receiver until he proves Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. After doing it again in Week 2, Nacua is now projected as a top-five wide receiver.

Quarterbacks

Player Att Comp PsYds PsTD Rush RshYds RshTDs FFPTs Rank
Josh Allen 37 26 284 2.3 4 24 0.4 23.3 1
Tua Tagovailoa 35 24 300 2.7 2 6 0.1 22.2 2
Patrick Mahomes 39 25 284 2.5 3 14 0.1 21.6 3
Jalen Hurts 30 20 202 1.7 9 38 0.5 20.4 4
Lamar Jackson 28 21 224 1.3 8 49 0.5 20.4 5
Trevor Lawrence 37 24 245 1.5 5 38 0.3 19.3 6
Justin Fields 31 20 211 1.3 9 49 0.4 19.2 7
Joe Burrow 34 22 262 1.9 2 7 0.2 18.3 8
Jared Goff 36 24 270 2.0 1 3 0.1 17.7 9
Sam Howell 31 20 242 1.6 3 21 0.2 17.8 10
Anthony Richardson 34 21 222 1.3 6 29 0.4 17.7 11
Kirk Cousins 37 25 239 2.1 1 4 0.1 16.9 12
Russell Wilson 32 21 226 1.8 2 15 0.1 16.9 13
Matthew Stafford 36 23 252 2.0 2 1 0.1 16.5 14
Jordan Love 30 17 208 1.8 3 15 0.2 16.5 15
C.J. Stroud 36 23 239 1.5 3 18 0.1 16.1 16
Daniel Jones 34 22 242 1.3 5 22 0.2 16.2 17
Zach Wilson 29 18 220 1.8 3 11 0.1 16.0 18
Dak Prescott 34 23 184 2.0 2 6 0.2 15.3 19
Joshua Dobbs 31 22 219 1.1 4 30 0.1 15.3 20
Jimmy Garoppolo 30 21 212 1.6 3 11 0.1 15.1 21
Brock Purdy 30 21 226 1.6 2 3 0.1 14.8 22
Mac Jones 39 26 222 1.5 3 6 0.1 14.2 23
Ryan Tannehill 29 18 213 1.3 2 5 0.2 13.6 24
Desmond Ridder 28 18 175 1.3 3 13 0.2 13.1 25
Bryce Young 35 22 201 1.2 2 10 0.1 12.5 26
Derek Carr 33 21 191 1.5 0 2 0.0 12.3 27
Mitch Trubisky 35 21 163 1.1 2 8 0.2 10.6 28

Josh Allen (QB1)

For the past three weeks, Josh Allen has been fantasy football's QB1. The Buffalo Bills have one of the best offenses in football. They’re third in offensive expected points added, second in points scored per game, and enter Week 5 with the fifth-highest implied team total vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Allen has had an insane 125.8 passer rating for the last three weeks. It’s hard to justify starting any other quarterback this week with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense struggling just a bit.

 Joe Burrow (QB8)

After becoming the highest-paid player in the NFL, Joe Burrow has been largely disappointing. Coach Zac Taylor insists Burrow is healthy enough to run the offense, but he certainly isn’t healthy enough to run your fantasy team; Burrow is averaging 8.1 fantasy points per game and is the QB31.

Fortunately, Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are taking on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have looked flashy in the past few weeks, but opposing quarterbacks are averaging 25 percent more yards per attempt than the league average against their defense. Burrow is in a good spot to bounce back, even without star WR Tee Higgins.

 Joshua Dobbs (QB20)

At the start of the season, Josh Dobbs was projected to be the worst quarterback in fantasy football. After three weeks with the fifth-highest success rate, Dobbs enters streaming territory against the Bengals' defense.

Wide Receivers

Name Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR PPR Rank
Tyreek Hill 11 8 119 0.9 21.9 25.8 1
Justin Jefferson 11 8 110 0.5 18.5 22.4 2
Stefon Diggs 11 8 97 0.7 17.8 21.9 3
Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 6 82 0.6 15.9 19.0 4
A.J. Brown 9 6 88 0.6 15.4 18.6 5
Puka Nacua 11 7 73 0.5 14.7 18.2 6
CeeDee Lamb 9 6 68 0.7 14.1 17.3 7
Brandon Aiyuk 7 4 75 0.5 13.4 15.6 8
Davante Adams 9 6 69 0.5 13.2 16.2 9
Ja'Marr Chase 10 6 67 0.5 13.0 16.0 10
Terry McLaurin 8 5 71 0.5 12.9 15.4 11
DeAndre Hopkins 9 5 64 0.6 12.6 15.3 12
Courtland Sutton 8 5 65 0.5 12.4 15.1 13
Jaylen Waddle 6 4 64 0.6 12.3 14.3 14
Marquise Brown 8 5 60 0.5 11.8 14.4 15
Nico Collins 9 5 68 0.4 11.7 14.3 16
DeVonta Smith 7 5 62 0.5 11.7 14.1 17
Garrett Wilson 8 5 56 0.6 11.5 13.8 18
Deebo Samuel 7 4 50 0.3 11.5 13.6 19
Michael Pittman Jr. 10 6 60 0.3 11.4 14.4 20
Chris Olave 9 6 58 0.4 11.2 14.3 21
DJ Moore 7 4 63 0.4 11.1 13.3 22
Tutu Atwell 7 5 58 0.4 11.0 13.3 23
Christian Kirk 8 5 56 0.3 10.7 13.4 24
Jerry Jeudy 7 4 56 0.5 10.6 12.8 25
Jakobi Meyers 8 5 52 0.4 10.5 13.1 26
Zay Flowers 6 5 64 0.3 10.5 12.9 27
Calvin Ridley 7 5 58 0.4 10.3 12.6 28
George Pickens 9 5 52 0.3 10.3 12.9 29
Christian Watson 6 4 50 0.5 10.2 12.0 30
Jahan Dotson 8 5 57 0.4 10.2 12.5 31
Gabe Davis 6 4 56 0.4 9.9 11.7 32
Tyler Boyd 7 4 43 0.5 9.8 12.1 33
Kendrick Bourne 9 5 49 0.3 9.7 12.3 34
Robert Woods 8 5 51 0.2 9.1 11.7 35
Adam Thielen 7 5 47 0.3 8.6 10.9 36
Skyy Moore 5 4 43 0.3 8.6 10.4 37
Romeo Doubs 7 4 42 0.4 8.4 10.2 38
Tank Dell 6 4 41 0.3 8.1 10.2 39
Jordan Addison 5 3 38 0.4 7.6 9.2 40
Michael Wilson 5 4 54 0.0 7.4 9.3 41
Allen Lazard 5 3 36 0.3 7.1 8.6 42
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 6 4 41 0.2 6.9 8.7 43
Jayden Reed 5 3 40 0.2 6.8 8.4 44
Josh Downs 7 4 41 0.1 6.8 9.0 45
Josh Reynolds 5 3 39 0.2 6.8 8.5 46
Drake London 5 3 32 0.3 6.8 8.3 47
Jonathan Mingo 6 4 36 0.2 6.7 8.5 48
DeVante Parker 5 3 33 0.3 6.6 8.3 49
Parris Campbell 6 3 31 0.2 6.6 8.3 50
Rashid Shaheed 4 3 32 0.2 6.5 7.9 51
Zay Jones 4 3 28 0.3 6.5 7.8 52
Rondale Moore 3 3 27 0.2 6.4 7.7 53
Wan'Dale Robinson 5 3 34 0.2 6.3 7.8 54
Darius Slayton 5 3 36 0.2 6.2 7.5 55
JuJu Smith-Schuster 5 3 27 0.3 6.0 7.6 56
K.J. Osborn 4 2 26 0.3 5.9 7.2 57
Terrace Marshall Jr. 6 3 34 0.1 5.8 7.4 58
Darnell Mooney 4 2 32 0.2 5.5 6.7 59
Michael Thomas 5 3 24 0.3 5.5 7.1 60
Curtis Samuel 5 2 36 0.1 5.5 6.6 61
Nelson Agholor 3 2 30 0.1 5.4 6.6 62
Rashod Bateman 4 3 30 0.2 5.4 6.7 63
Van Jefferson 4 2 28 0.2 5.2 6.4 64
Jameson Williams 3 2 34 0.1 5.0 5.5 71

 A.J. Brown (WR5)

The Philadelphia Eagles’ offense has found its WR1 – not its WR1A (sorry DeVonta Smith). A.J. Brown has scored the most fantasy points in the past two weeks while trailing only Davante Adams (40.2) in target share (Brown’s is 39.1 percent). QB Jalen Hurts hasn’t been as effective on the ground as he was last season, but it hasn’t slowed this offense down.

Philadelphia is one of two remaining 4-0 teams. They are going up against a Los Angeles Rams team that should keep the pressure on them. Brown should see plenty of opportunities and has WR1 overall upside.

 Terry McLaurin (WR11)

This is the highest Terry McLaurin has been projected this season. McLaurin has had the 25th-highest target share among wide receivers in the past two weeks. While that’s not particularly notable, he’s sure to see the bulk of the work against the Chicago Bears, who have a bottom-three secondary.

McLaurin is projected for just less than 14 yards per reception, more than he’s had in all but one game this season. Considering the Washington Commanders’ 25.5 implied team total (sixth-most), he enters the WR1 territory for Week 5.

 Chris Olave (WR21)

There’s no denying Chris Olave’s talent. Even his usage has been solid; Olave has the 14th-highest target percentage among wide receivers (27.3 percent). The concern in Week 5 is his quarterback: Derek Carr. Carr is a solid signal-caller, but his AC sprain is worrisome.

Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carr’s 3.4 yards per attempt were the second-lowest in his career. After exiting Week 3 early and following it up with a poor performance in Week 4, my model doesn’t project well for Carr. It’s affecting Olave’s Week 5 upside.

Running Backs

Name Rushes RushYards RushTDs Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR PPR Rank
Christian McCaffrey 18 86 0.7 5 4 32 0.3 19.7 21.7 1
Bijan Robinson 15 78 0.6 5 4 24 0.3 17.5 19.4 2
Travis Etienne 17 94 0.5 4 3 17 0.1 16.1 17.5 3
Joe Mixon 17 71 0.5 5 4 27 0.2 15.7 17.4 4
Derrick Henry 18 67 0.9 3 2 19 0.1 15.6 16.6 5
Josh Jacobs 16 59 0.6 5 3 29 0.2 15.3 17.0 6
Tony Pollard 18 70 0.5 4 3 18 0.3 14.9 16.5 7
Kyren Williams 17 55 0.5 5 3 29 0.3 14.9 16.5 8
Saquon Barkley 16 65 0.5 5 4 26 0.1 14.5 16.3 9
James Conner 17 80 0.5 3 2 11 0.1 14.1 15.2 10
D'Andre Swift 13 68 0.4 3 3 21 0.2 14.0 15.3 11
David Montgomery 15 69 0.7 2 2 12 0.1 13.9 14.7 12
Devon Achane 13 72 0.5 2 2 13 0.2 13.6 14.4 13
Rhamondre Stevenson 14 68 0.4 4 3 25 0.1 13.4 15.0 14
Brian Robinson Jr. 17 60 0.7 3 2 15 0.2 13.2 14.1 15
James Cook 14 65 0.2 4 3 29 0.2 13.0 14.5 16
Raheem Mostert 9 45 0.4 4 3 26 0.2 12.5 14.1 17
Alvin Kamara 15 59 0.3 5 3 19 0.2 12.5 14.2 18
Breece Hall 11 60 0.3 3 2 21 0.2 11.8 12.8 19
Zack Moss 16 57 0.6 3 2 15 0.0 11.7 12.6 20
Khalil Herbert 11 52 0.3 4 3 24 0.1 11.3 12.7 21
Najee Harris 12 46 0.5 3 2 12 0.2 10.8 11.9 22
Isiah Pacheco 12 51 0.4 2 2 12 0.2 10.8 11.0 23
Jahmyr Gibbs 6 29 0.3 5 4 27 0.3 10.7 12.5 24
Miles Sanders 15 44 0.5 5 3 11 0.1 10.6 12.1 25
Jaylen Warren 8 30 0.4 5 4 24 0.2 10.5 12.5 26
Tyler Allgeier 12 51 0.5 3 2 12 0.1 10.5 11.4 27
Dameon Pierce 14 50 0.5 3 2 9 0.1 10.2 11.2 28
Jaleel McLaughlin 12 47 0.3 3 2 18 0.1 10.2 11.2 29
Alexander Mattison 13 53 0.4 3 2 11 0.1 10.1 11.1 30
Aaron Jones 12 49 0.2 3 2 13 0.2 9.6 10.4 31
Justice Hill 10 45 0.4 2 1 10 0.0 8.6 9.3 32
Dalvin Cook 9 43 0.2 3 2 12 0.1 8.4 9.3 33
Ezekiel Elliott 8 32 0.5 2 2 12 0.0 8.4 9.2 34
Samaje Perine 8 28 0.2 3 3 21 0.2 8.3 9.6 35
Roschon Johnson 6 30 0.3 4 3 18 0.0 8.1 9.5 36
A.J. Dillon 9 32 0.5 2 1 9 0.1 8.0 8.5 37
Antonio Gibson 4 14 0.2 3 2 20 0.3 7.9 9.0 38
Gus Edwards 10 52 0.2 1 0 3 0.0 7.4 7.6 39
Kenneth Gainwell 8 35 0.2 2 1 11 0.1 7.2 7.9 40
Chuba Hubbard 6 22 0.2 3 2 16 0.1 6.5 7.5 41
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 7 22 0.3 2 1 13 0.1 6.5 7.2 42
Cam Akers 5 20 0.2 3 2 13 0.1 6.0 7.2 43
Tyjae Spears 4 18 0.1 4 3 22 0.0 6.0 7.3 44
Jerick McKinnon 2 5 0.2 3 2 16 0.2 5.6 6.7 45
Elijah Mitchell 5 26 0.2 1 1 6 0.0 5.0 5.4 46
Tank Bigsby 3 18 0.2 1 1 8 0.1 4.8 5.3 47

 Travis Etienne (RB3)

Travis Etienne has run 63.9 percent of Jacksonville’s rushes, which ranks eighth among running backs. Etienne is a bell-cow back. He may not be particularly impressive this season, but he gets to face a Bills defense allowing the most yards per carry to opposing running backs.

The Jaguars aren’t likely to be in a game script affording them the luxury of running the ball, but the Bills also allow the fourth most yards per reception to running backs. Etienne should be efficient, especially considering Buffalo has allowed a 100-plus-yard rusher in two games.

 De'Von Achane (RB13)

I’m a bit upset my model doesn’t have De'Von Achane as a top-12 running back after his performances the past two weeks. It comes down to this: Achane doesn’t own more than 50 percent of this backfield. Tyreek Hill didn’t score a touchdown last week but is statistically one of the most likely to score in any given week.

Achane is a must-start running back this week; he faces off against a New York Giants team that is getting run on at the highest rate in the NFL (49.6 percent). Unfortunately for Achane, he will be splitting those carries with Raheem Mostert and potentially Jeff Wilson Jr. Plus, Achane's TD upside is limited by Miami's high-octane pass attack. Achane is a must-start player but temper your expectations.

 Jahmyr Gibbs (RB24)

Jahmyr Gibbs is entering flex-territory; not what you want from your third-round running back. The issue with Gibbs isn’t talent, it’s his usage by the Detroit Lions. Despite playing one more game, Gibbs has four goal-line carries to David Montgomery’s 10.

Montgomery has four rushing touchdowns; Gibbs doesn't have any, rushing or receiving. With Jameson Williams returning from suspension and rookie TE Sam LaPorta hogging targets, it’s tough to see a relevant pass for Gibbs moving forward.

Tight Ends

Name Targets Receptions RecYds RecTDs HPPR FPPR Rank
Travis Kelce 10 7 68 0.7 14.6 18.0 1
Mark Andrews 7 5 63 0.4 11.4 13.9 2
T.J. Hockenson 8 5 39 0.5 9.7 12.4 3
Sam LaPorta 7 5 47 0.4 9.2 11.5 4
Cole Kmet 7 5 47 0.3 9.0 11.3 5
George Kittle 5 4 44 0.3 8.0 10.0 6
Evan Engram 7 4 38 0.3 7.7 9.9 7
Hunter Henry 5 4 38 0.3 7.5 9.3 8
Zach Ertz 6 4 37 0.2 7.2 9.4 9
Durham Smythe 5 3 28 0.4 6.9 8.4 10
Dawson Knox 4 3 25 0.5 6.7 8.1 11
Dalton Kincaid 5 4 36 0.2 6.6 8.5 12
Luke Musgrave 5 3 31 0.3 6.5 8.0 13
Tyler Higbee 4 3 31 0.3 6.4 7.9 14
Darren Waller 5 3 37 0.2 6.3 7.9 15
Kyle Pitts 5 3 32 0.2 6.2 7.7 16
Jake Ferguson 6 4 24 0.3 5.9 7.8 17
Tyler Conklin 4 2 33 0.2 5.4 6.7 18
Dallas Goedert 5 3 25 0.2 5.4 6.9 19
Jonnu Smith 4 3 28 0.2 5.3 6.7 20
Mike Gesicki 4 3 24 0.2 4.9 6.2 21
Chigoziem Okonkwo 3 2 22 0.3 4.8 5.9 22

 T.J. Hockenson (TE3)

The trick to the tight end position is appropriately guessing who will score a touchdown. The top-scoring tight ends in any given week are often the ones who have touchdowns (and Travis Kelce).

T.J. Hockenson has run the third-most red zone routes and seen the sixth-most red zone receptions. It’s tough to be an elite performer when sharing your targets with WR Justin Jefferson, but Hockenson and the Minnesota Vikings have a top-10 implied team total this week.

 Cole Kmet (TE5)

Week 4 might have been Justin Fields’ breakout-for-the-second-time week. It was certainly the best he’s looked at this season. Cole Kmet was third in team target share among tight ends, but it was the two touchdowns that helped him ascend to TE1 status for the week.

The Bears' offense is still a bit of a question mark, but the struggling offense will continue to look to Kmet.

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Tags: A.J. Brown, Chris Olave, Cole Kmet See More

Ben Wolbransky

Ben Wolbransky is a data scientist with a passion for sports analytics. Wolbransky is also a featured writer for BettingPros.

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