Fantasy
10/31/24
3 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Advice for NFL Week 9
The 2024 NFL season has been so hectic that it almost feels appropriate to start by citing an old wartime quote that inspires fantasy managers to keep pushing.
Between injuries, quarterback benchings, and the relentless march of time, there’s no time to come up for air. Still, we must be diligent in our quest to achieve fantasy titles. Even as more teams fall out of contention, the analysis here at The 33rd Team will continue flowing.
Read on those pondering difficult lineup choices — it’s time for Week 9 starts and sits.
Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings
NFL Week 9 Start, Sit Advice
Week 9 Quarterback Starts
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (vs IND)
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (@ SEA)
- Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts (@ MIN)
Sunday night primetime's matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings should be a thrilling contest for real-life football fans and fantasy managers.
As fearsome as the Vikings' defense is (first in pass, run, and total DVOA in 2024, per FTN), I still expect Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold to take shots back and forth in what should be a high-scoring affair. According to Vegas Insider, this game has one of the highest combined over/unders for the week at 46.5 points.
Even in tougher matchups, like Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Flacco has thrown for multiple touchdowns the three games in which he played consequential snaps. Darnold, on the other hand, ranks tied for second in touchdown rate (7.4 percent) and fourth among quarterbacks in passer rating (107.2) to date.
All in all, I’m trustworthy of both offenses and their signal-callers.
As for Stafford, I talked a bit about this in this week’s waiver wire article. The return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua elevates this Rams offense back to peak levels. In 2023, when both players played, Stafford finished the season with 16.2 points per game in four-point per passing touchdown scoring, according to FantasyData.
Expect more quality results in Week 9, as Stafford and company go up against a Seattle Seahawks defense that allows the eighth-highest completion percentage (67.5) to opposing quarterback in 2024.
Week 9 Quarterback Sits
- Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (@ BAL)
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (@ ATL)
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (@ CLE)
It’s tough to envision a scenario in which Bo Nix can generate much success against the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the 21.9 fantasy points per game he’s averaged during the past four weeks are impressive, but this matchup will be tough.
The Ravens’ secondary has experienced its share of troubles (25th in pass defense DVOA), but its run defense is considerably more menacing. It has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (69.9), and its overall ability to shut down opposing ground attacks will likely force the rookie into making errant throws.
I have little interest in rolling out Nix in Week 9, just as I don’t care for whatever contributions we’ll likely receive from Dak Prescott.
The veteran ranks 21st in adjusted net yards per attempt (5.64) and 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.04), all while leading a Cowboys’ offense that ranks third in turnover rate (17.1 percent). Prescott has thrown at least two interceptions in each of his last three games, and even though the Falcons' defense isn’t superb, it’s difficult to trust Prescott for these reasons.
Conversely, Justin Herbert has been a quality starter for the Los Angeles Chargers of late. Unfortunately, none of that translates to fantasy success. Their offense ranks 26th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) at a clip of -5.9 percent, according to NFELO.
The QB9 finish from Herbert last week is the first time he’s ended a week inside the top 15 all season, and it will certainly not be the norm. If your instinct is to chase the past production, ignore it.
Week 9 Running Back Starts
- Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (@ BUF)
- Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (@ NYG)
- Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ PHI)
It’s been rather clear since Mostert returned from a chest injury in Week 5 that he’s becoming more of the second fiddle to De’Von Achane in the Dolphins’ offense. But that doesn’t mean that the veteran is becoming irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
Mostert is the primary red zone back, receiving nine of the team’s 14 carries inside the 20-yard line in the past three games, per FantasyPros. Despite appearing on just 39.4 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in the past two weeks, according to Fantasy Points Data, Mostert's role is crucial and ripe for scoring opportunities.
With a combined over/under of 49.5 points, Sunday’s AFC East bout between the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills should set up Mostert for some scoring opportunities. I’d be looking to flex him in lineups everywhere.
Though Brian Robinson Jr. failed to crack double-digits in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring last week, he’s still receiving substantial volume in the Commanders’ offense. He will be going up against a weak New York Giants front, a unit allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (141.8) to opposing teams in 2024.
This is not to say that “B-Rob” necessarily needs a bounce-back game, but if there were to be a spot to rebound, it would be against the Giants.
As for Bigsby, the Jacksonville Jaguars are seemingly comfortable giving the second-year back a sizeable workload without teammate Travis Etienne Jr. in the lineup. Since Week 7, the former Auburn bruiser has logged a 66.1 percent snap share while toting 71 percent of the Jags’ carries.
At this point, I’m comfortable betting on him remaining as the 1A in the pecking order moving forward. That's my big "hot take" for Week 9.
Week 9 Running Back Sits
- Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens (vs DEN)
- Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (@ CLE)
- Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ KC)
Funny enough, Week 9’s matchup vs. the Denver Broncos lines up well for Justice Hill. The Broncos have allowed 44 receptions to opposing running backs this season, the fourth-highest total.
But Hill will soon have to deal with the recent addition of WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson joining the Baltimore passing game from the Carolina Panthers will result in someone in the Baltimore passing game losing out, and my guess would be Hill, the player receiving short outlet passes on a consistent basis.
Johnson has been a fairly reliable short and intermediate-area target for much of his career, and it stands to reason that’s why the Ravens acquired him in the first place. We had a good run with Hill, but I fear his time of fantasy viability is in the rearview now.
Another player who lacks standalone viability is Los Angeles Chargers rookie Kimani Vidal. The sixth-round pick has appeared on just 23.6 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, even ranking behind FB Scott Matlock, while receiving a mere 16 total touch opportunities (carries + targets) since Week 6 when Gus Edwards (ankle) was placed on injured reserve.
The Chargers’ backfield is very much the J.K. Dobbins show. I implore folks with the requisite bench spots to roster Vidal in case of an injury to Dobbins, but we’re only talking about a handcuff here.
The same goes for Sean Tucker, who’s basically been useless since his Week 6 breakout. The former Syracuse standout has registered a 14.7 percent snap share while receiving a mere 10 touch opportunities in that span, and whatever hopes people had of a three-headed monster in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' backfield are kaput.
This is all to say that there’s not much of a point in rostering Tucker unless you really have the room to spare.
Week 9 Wide Receiver Starts
- Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (vs CHI)
- Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (@ MIN)
- Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans (vs NE)
As brutal of a defense as the Vikings have, they rank second in fantasy points allowed to slot receivers (19.1) this season, per Razzball.
Josh Downs runs 85.5 percent of his routes from the slot and will significantly benefit from the benching of Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, as we discussed at the beginning. Just about every positive factor you could hope for is going Downs’ way, and he’s someone I’ll be clamoring to put in as many lineups as possible this weekend.
Calling back to my weekly rankings, I’m willing to buy in on Calvin Ridley’s 10 catches on 15 targets, 45.6 air yards share, and 22.6 PPR points he recorded last week without former teammate DeAndre Hopkins in the lineup. That’s not to say I expect a repeat performance in Week 9, but the consolidation in target opportunity in the Tennessee Titans’ offense is a more substantial reality we can count on.
Helping the cause is the fact the New England Patriots stand third-worst in pass defense DVOA this year. It’s a solid matchup for Ridley, regardless of who the starting quarterback is.
Regarding Marvin Harrison Jr., the beginning of his rookie campaign has been frustrating for fantasy managers, but his role and connection with QB Kyler Murray in the Arizona Cardinals’ offense are continuing to strengthen.
The first-round pick has seen no fewer than six targets in the past two weeks, and I expect the volume to carry him to relevance on Sunday, even against a tough Chicago Bears secondary (sixth in pass defense DVOA).
Week 9 Wide Receiver Sits
- DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots (@ TEN)
- Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (vs DET)
- Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (@ ARI)
Plainly speaking, DeMario Douglas hasn’t done squat since his Week 6 breakout.
The slot receiver has registered a 46.2 percent route participation rate and a nine percent target share in the past two games. Douglas is also tied with K.J. Osborn for a six percent share of the team’s receiving yards in this span. He’s becoming a bit of an afterthought after demonstrating some promise.
I’m not ready to give up on Douglas entirely, but he belongs on benches. The same goes for Christian Watson, who may be without starting QB Jordan Love this week due to a groin injury.
There aren’t many substantive numbers to point to for this one, as it’s a firm negative any time a backup quarterback comes into the picture.
As for Odunze, he continues to find himself losing out to Keenan Allen in the Bears’ pecking order. The former Washington standout has recorded just one game with more than 10 PPR points this season despite seeing at least five targets in four separate weeks.
Odunze is still an excellent dynasty asset, but not so much for redraft.
Week 9 Tight End Starts
- T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (vs IND)
- Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (@ NYG)
- Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers (@ CLE)
It’s looking like we may be getting T.J. Hockenson back into the fold this weekend.
In case you’ve forgotten, the superstar finished first in target share (22.9 percent), fourth in air yards share (22.3 percent), and fifth in yards per route run (2.01) among 67 tight ends who ran at least 100 routes in 2023.
There’s a reason folks like myself have kept the Vikings’ pass-catcher parked in an IR spot all season. Assuming he does receive the green light, throw him into your lineup. This is what we’ve been waiting for.
Another veteran worthy of praise is Zach Ertz of the Washington Commanders. It’s become rather apparent how much QB Jayden Daniels prefers to lean on the former Pro Bowler, especially considering Ertz has received 29 targets during the past four weeks.
The volume is ridiculous, and I’m riding with Ertz until the wheels come off.
In case you missed this fun fact in my weekly rankings, Chargers TE Will Dissly has seen no fewer than five targets per game in the past three weeks and leads the team with a 21.9 percent target share in that span.
He’s got a fun role and is my favorite sleeper pick of the week at the position.
Week 9 Tight End Sits
- Theo Johnson, New York Giants (vs WAS)
- Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (vs LV)
Don’t get it twisted; rookie Theo Johnson is trending upward in the Giants’ offense.
After receiving at least three targets in as many games in the past four weeks, there’s reason to believe Johnson should be at least within streaming consideration in deeper leagues. If anything, that’s more or less the purpose behind listing him here.
I’m not ready to put him in lineups yet. However, those out there playing in deeper leagues with a tight end premium scoring format should at least consider picking up Johnson. It's a weird shoutout for a guy being listed as a “sit,” but the information is worth passing along.
We close by talking about Mike Gesicki and how most of his production has come without teammate WR Tee Higgins in the lineup. So far in 2024, 21 of Gesicki’s 30 targets have come within the three games Higgins has missed due to injury.
In all other games with a healthy Higgins (Week 3-7), Gesicki has only registered a 48.3 route participation rate and a 5.6 percent target share. He’s practically useless if the Cincinnati Bengals have all their weapons in tow.
Don’t be fooled by last week’s big numbers. Gesicki is unlikely to repeat.
