Fantasy
10/3/24
3 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 5
Whether you’re battling to stave off a 1-4 record or seeking to keep an undefeated streak alive, the lineup decisions you make in Week 5 are crucial for success.
The added challenge of four NFL teams resting on their bye week is tough, but your opponents must deal with these same obstacles. Don’t let that reality phase or distract you from the ultimate goal of victory.
Let’s talk about a few trustworthy players who need to be in lineups to bring home a W and a handful who are likely better off riding the bench.
Week 5 Quarterback Starts
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (@ PIT)
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (vs BUF)
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (vs NYJ)
This week's primetime Sunday night game features the Cowboys facing a relatively stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Though the black and gold are formidable foes for even the best offenses, their primary means of prevention is stopping their opponents' run game.
The Steelers rank third-best in run defense DVOA, per FTN; however, they are much closer to the league average in pass defense (14th in DVOA) and just last week allowed Colts backup signal-caller Joe Flacco to carve them up with a 105.9 passer rating.
It’s not as though the Cowboys have much to offer in the way of a ground attack anyway (all due respect to the efforts of Rico Dowdle), so watch out for Dak Prescott relying on his arm to carry his team to victory.
Plus, last week, Prescott was tossing absolute bullets with tremendous efficiency:
While C.J. Stroud does appear very high in my Week 5 rankings compared to other analysts across the fantasy landscape, I have him there for good reason. Per Vegas Insider, the game between the Texans and Buffalo Bills carries the second-highest implied point total (o/u 47.5 points), lending itself well to a high-scoring affair.
The Bills’ aerial attack, led by QB Josh Allen, ranks third in offensive pass DVOA (yes, they have that, too!) and is highly likely to force Stroud and company to keep up, particularly given that we aren’t entirely sure of the health of RB Joe Mixon’s ankle.
It’s more of a gut call based on real-life inference clues than anything else, but being bullish on Stroud this weekend feels like a strong choice.
Lastly, what more does Sam Darnold need to do to earn trust in fantasy lineups?
The former third-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft has recorded multiple passing scores in each game this season and still holds the fourth-highest passer rating (118.9) among all quarterbacks.
It won’t be easy for Darnold in Week 5, as the New York Jets rank 31st in passing yards allowed (603), but going up against the team that drafted him adds an extra wrinkle of revenge that feels too good to pass up.
Plus, it’s not like Sunday would be the first time this year that the Vikings offense has upset an opponent perceived to be significantly better (Week 2 vs. the San Francisco 49ers, anyone?)
Week 5 Quarterback Sits
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs CAR)
- Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (@ MIN)
Williams deserves a ton of credit for demonstrating growth during the past couple of weeks.
Unfortunately, these signs of development have primarily shown themselves on tape, not in the fantasy box scores. The rookie still has just one game with more than 200 passing yards and multiple passing scores.
The Bears should be extremely competitive against the Carolina Panthers’ weak defense (23rd in pass defense DVOA), but offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's scheme's limitations are working to the detriment of the former Heisman winner and his upside for our pretend football purposes.
For now, keep Williams on ice.
As for Rodgers, I just don’t see a path to him carving up this Vikings defense that coordinator Brian Flores has constructed. Minnesota ranks first across the board by every individual and collective DVOA metric.
The Vikings have also allowed just 21.3 percent of opposing offenses to end drives with a score the lowest rate of any team in the NFL.
I will ardently advise against anyone starting a quarterback against the Vikings until they show any sort of cracks in their armor, and that applies even to former MVPs and future Hall of Famers.
Week 5 Running Back Starts
- Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (vs LV)
- Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (@ WAS)
- Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (vs NO)
For as much grief as I’ve given Javonte Williams this season, he’s starting to put together some more efficiency of late (16 carries for 77 rushing yards, two receptions vs. the Jets in Week 4). Williams has also seen some pass-catching opportunities, receiving at least three targets in the past three games.
This week, he and the Broncos square off against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that’s allowed the fifth-most receptions (21) to opposing running backs in 2024 and is 23rd in run defense DVOA. It’s a tailor-made “get right” spot for Williams.
As for Ford, the Commanders have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards (488) and a robust 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing runners in half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) scoring, per FantasyPros.
That matchup is a potential gold mine for a player like Ford, who averages 14 touches per game in 2024.
While Hunt has no guarantee of success in a crowded Chiefs backfield, I outlined my case for him reasonably well in this week’s waiver wire article. So long as rookie Carson Steele struggles with fumbling, the only thing preventing Hunt from being the lead rusher is Samaje Perine, who received just five carries in Week 4.
Though the Saints are a tough test (96.5 rushing yards per game allowed, seventh-fewest in the NFL), Hunt is more than comfortable in Andy Reid’s offense. It may feel like ancient history, but Hunt did land a Pro Bowl appearance and lead the NFL in rushing yards as a member of the Chiefs in his 2017 rookie campaign.
Week 5 Running Back Sits
- Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (@ DEN)
- Emanuel Wilson, Green Bay Packers (@ LAR)
- Antonio Gibson, New England Patriots (vs MIA)
For as poor as the Denver Broncos offense is, their defense has been quite strong in 2024.
Currently ranked fifth in run defense DVOA and allowing just 17.1 half-PPR points per game to opposing running backs, Zamir White will have his hands full trying to stay fantasy-relevant in Week 5. Mind you, these totals of fantasy points allowed include how much a defense surrenders to an opposing team’s entire backfield — not just one guy.
That means if Alexander Mattison continues undermining White's starting role, we’re looking at what is likely to be an uninspiring, single-digit performance from both backs. It’s best to skip the Raiders’ backfield this weekend.
Regarding backfield committees, it could be tempting to roll with Emanuel Wilson in Week 5 as a potential flex option. With four teams on bye, a player who receives 8.7 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game is a reasonably enticing option, right?
Unfortunately, Wilson has done little with his opportunities, playing second-fiddle to starter Josh Jacobs. It has resulted in a meager 42.2 scrimmage yards and 6.7 PPR points per game, per FantasyData. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Antonio Gibson is another B-back who might seem like an intriguing option in Week 5, especially considering the increased opportunities he’s seen as a pass-catcher of late (seven targets in the past two weeks).
Sadly, that growth could be limited by the fact that he is playing a Miami Dolphins front that’s allowed just 12 catches and 100 receiving yards to opposing backfields in 2024, both ranking within the bottom five.
Sure, the Dolphins’ defense is terrible, but their kind of bad doesn’t lend itself to what Gibson typically does well. Start him if you’re desperate, but don’t expect much return.
Week 5 Wide Receiver Starts
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (vs NYJ)
- Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints (@ KC)
- Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants (@ SEA)
Earlier, we discussed the difficulty the Vikings’ offense will experience this weekend when facing the Jets’ defense.
Without focusing too much on that, let’s give the Vikings some credit for putting together a passing game that ranks as the league’s sixth-best in pass offense DVOA and third-highest in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) at +4.6 percent, according to NFELO.
By hook or by crook, airing it out is the modus operandi of Minnesota, and one of the weapons recently added back to their arsenal is second-year WR Jordan Addison, who put together a strong three reception, 72-yard performance with a touchdown in Week 4.
Part of me assumes that Justin Jefferson will draw heavy coverage from All-Pro CB Sauce Gardner in the contest, leaving Addison out to create space downfield against (albeit slightly) weaker coverage — that’s a circumstance worth betting on in a high-powered offense.
Most managers are likely planning on starting Rashid Shaheed this weekend anyway, but now just feels like a good time to remind folks that the speedster ranks fourth among all wide receivers in air yards share (49.6 percent). Aside from a Week 3 dud against the Eagles, he has secured five or more targets and 73 or more receiving yards in all other contests in 2024.
Simply put, Shaheed is a strong field stretcher, and the Saints' offense is dialed up to get deep shots to him.
Lastly, we close by discussing Robinson because I am on a personal quest to highlight that, according to Fantasy Points Data, he ranks tied for fourth in targets (38), fourth in catches (26), and fifth among wide receivers in targets per route run (0.36).
I will continue to shoehorn this into everything I write until more fantasy managers roster and start him.
Week 5 Wide Receiver Sits
- Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (@ LAR)
- Mike Williams, New York Jets (@ MIN)
- Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (vs CAR)
The case against Doubs is simple: I believe more in the strength of his teammates and don’t know exactly how he’ll fit into the puzzle.
In Christian Watson's absence, second-year WR Dontayvion Wicks has historically (in a small sample, sure) been involved more, and Packers TE Tucker Kraft is heating, so it’ll be hard to keep the ball away from him.
Check out my Week 5 rankings for greater detail on my faith in that pairing of Packers. Still, my point is more or less that I’m betting on Doubs being the odd man out. At best, he’s competing to be third in line for targets behind the aforementioned pairing and Jayden Reed; not exactly a winning set of circumstances.
Even in his small breakout Week 4 performance, Mike Williams finished fourth on the Jets in route participation (58.8 percent) behind TE Tyler Conklin and fellow WR Allen Lazard. It might be tempting to chase the points from last weekend, but a quick peek under the hood tells us that’s not a wise thing to bank on.
As for Odunze, I greatly like the Bears' chances against the Panthers. As discussed earlier regarding Caleb Williams, this team is on the precipice of looking competent.
Still, the split between Odunze and veteran Keenan Allen is frustrating. In two healthy games together this season (Week 1 and Week 4), the duo has cannibalized each other, with the rookie coming out on the losing end (six targets to Allen’s 11).
To reiterate, I firmly believe in Odunze's long-term prospects, and he may be the second-best option on this team after DJ Moore. Still, until we see it, it’s too big of a gamble unless Odunze is in your flex spot or as your WR3. In two-receiver lineup formats, look elsewhere.
Week 5 Tight End Starts
- David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (@ WAS)
- Erick All Jr., Cincinnati Bengals (vs BAL)
- Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (@ LAR)
I’ve recommended Njoku a couple of times in hopes that he will soon return from his ankle injury. My feelings on that have not shifted, and the confidence I’ve expressed in Kraft has been well-documented.
As such, let’s talk about Erick All Jr. for a minute.
He’s a bit of a risky play, and the risk is baked into where I have him ranked as TE22, but what he's done recently is impressive. The rookie has secured four catches in the past three weeks despite only logging a 27.2 route participation rate.
His role continues to grow, and the Bengals specifically look for him when he’s on the field, as evidenced by the team-leading 0.39 targets per route run clip he’s recorded since Week 2.
The Bengals and their beat reporters are noticing, and fantasy managers should be, too. If nothing else, pick up All Jr. and stash him on the bench.
Week 5 Tight End Sits
- Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (@ CIN)
- Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (@ CIN)
Look… I know that ending by picking on the Ravens' tight ends feels cruel and also potentially unhelpful.
I don’t know many people who are comfortable starting Andrews or Likely. They both belong on the bench; dropping both to waivers might be the optimal move if these woes persist. But this subject is being mentioned because it’s crucial to contextualize what’s happening in Baltimore.
Looking at the sample of games from Week 2 to Week 4, neither Likely nor Andrews has recorded a route participation rate above 50 percent, and both players match their uninspiring 0.19 targets per route run rate. Even when playing from behind, Lamar Jackson isn’t looking to his tight ends to push the ball.
Remember, this is the offense with the lowest PROE (-11.9 percent) of any team in 2024.
Whatever hopes folks had that offensive coordinator Todd Monken would change the aggressive ground-and-pound tactics set forth by his long-term predecessor, Greg Roman, are seemingly squashed.
But do you know where the ball is going when Jackson is pressed? Into the hands of RB Justice Hill, who leads the team with a hefty 0.39 targets per route run rate since Week 2 — he’s the new safety valve in Baltimore.
Between that and the Ravens cycling in Charlie Kolar and FB Patrick Ricard in different packages to give defenses different looks, it’s rather apparent that their offensive identity centers around ball control and hammering away at teams, leaving Andrews and Likely to do nothing, basically.
It’s weird — I’m annoyed by it, too — but this is my first preliminary attempt at figuring this situation out. Hopefully, I’ll have greater findings to share soon.
