Fantasy
10/17/24
3 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 7
You know the challenges; you know the stakes.
The seventh week of the fantasy football season is upon us, and each decision you make is crucial.
If making lineup decisions this week feels like a massive pain, allow me to alleviate your concerns. Together, we’ll explore some names of players who should be trusted or avoided in Week 7 for various reasons.
So if you’re up for it, let’s hop to:
>> READ MORE: Week 7 Fantasy Rankings
Week 7 Quarterback Starts
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (vs KC)
- Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (vs SEA)
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots (@ JAC)
Betting on Brock Purdy stepping up in a critical spot? Yeah, that seems wise.
The San Francisco 49ers will have their hands full in this rematch of last year’s Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. In a game that’s likely to be a high-scoring affair, I trust a quarterback who’s thrown for more than 250 passing yards in all but two contests.
Also, for what it’s worth, two is the same number of times Purdy has finished outside of the top 15 of quarterback scoring in four-point per passing touchdown formats this season, according to FantasyPros. Take the security of Purdy this week and roll with it.
Another pocket passer with a solid shot at fantasy success is Kirk Cousins. The Seattle Seahawks defense allows the ninth-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks (98.8) and the 10th-highest passing touchdown rate (4.9 percent) in the NFL this season.
Though the Falcons’ passing attack has had inconsistencies, this is about as good of a “get right” — or, I guess, more rather, a “keep it going” — opportunity as it gets for them.
Lastly, I covered why I like Maye in a couple of articles this week. But to distill it down here. He uncorked three passing touchdowns in a difficult debut spot against the Houston Texans. Now, he can unleash his ability against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA by a substantial margin in 2024, per FTN.
This rookie class is blossoming well, thanks to the contributions of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. After Week 7, we’ll be talking about similar excitement levels for Maye.
Week 7 Quarterback Sits
- Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders (@ LAR)
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (vs LV)
- Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (@ BUF)
While some of the names listed here feel like obvious sits, I’m trying to remember that plenty of season-long leagues play with two quarterbacks or a Superflex spot.
So, to serve that need, here are some of my least favorite QB2 options.
Aidan O’Connell losing Davante Adams via trade brings a massive loss to the Las Vegas Raiders’ offense. Well, sort of; it’s not like the superstar wideout had been in the lineup of late (Adams last played in Week 3).
While players like Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker have been interesting at times, the only consistent weapon the Raiders truly have on offense is a rookie TE Brock Bowers. Is that enough to sustain fantasy relevance for O’Connell, mainly when the health of Meyers’ ankle that kept him out of last Sunday’s game is still unknown?
The matchup against the Rams (30th in pass defense DVOA) is tempting, but the circumstances of the roster will keep O’Connell out of the running for me.
Similar concerns plague me regarding Stafford. Will we see Cooper Kupp return from his high-ankle sprain? It’s “at least possible,” according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, but still something we aren’t sure of as of this writing.
Without Kupp or Puka Nacua this season, the former Super Bowl LVII winner hasn’t produced more than 250 passing yards once and hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in a game. He’s just not helpful without these top weapons.
As for Will Levis, he’s just… bad. That might even be too generous.
Per TruMedia, the second-year signal-caller is recording the NFL’s lowest EPA per dropback among qualified quarterbacks (-0.34) behind the likes of Deshaun Watson and rookie Bo Nix. It’s no wonder Levis only has one game with greater than 200 passing yards.
Week 7 Running Back Starts
- Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings (vs DET)
- Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (@ SF)
- Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (@ WAS)
Last we saw the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5 vs. the New York Jets, veteran runner Aaron Jones sustained a fairly impactful hip injury that paved the way for Ty Chandler to pick up 16 touches.
Hopefully, the bye week was enough time for Jones to heal, although the Tuesday trade sending Cam Akers from the Houston Texans to the Vikes for a late-round pick might throw up some red flags about where the possible rehab is going.
Chandler has already seen three games where he’s handled at least double-digit touches and seems poised to take over. It’s a bit of a hunch, but there’s a reason Chandler was a popular waiver add last week despite not even playing.
The other recent bye week player that managers shouldn’t forget is Kareem Hunt.
Before resting up in Week 6, Hunt seemed to officially take the throne as the lead back, occupying a 69.2 percent share of the team’s rushing attempts and registering a 20.5 percent route participation rate, according to Fantasy Points Data. Fellow vet Samaje Perine will still be around for spell duties, but Hunt is the Chiefs’ primary rusher.
Unfortunately, Week 7 brings some risk to the job of a standout player in Chuba Hubbard. Since Andy Dalton became the Carolina Panthers’ starter in Week 3, the former Oklahoma State speedster has averaged the third-most rushing yards per game (97.7) and a combined 21 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game among running backs.
The impending return, or rather debut, of rookie Jonathon Brooks (ACL) is looming and will likely leave Hubbard with diminished capacity. Even if that happens later, it seems unlikely to happen in Week 7 right away.
Sunday's contest against the Commanders (21st in run defense DVOA) is still very likely to be a big Hubbard game.
Week 7 Running Back Sits
- Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (vs CIN)
- Braelon Allen, New York Jets (@ PIT)
- Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers (@ ARI)
In case you haven’t noticed, Jerome Ford is slowly being phased out of relevancy in the Browns’ offense.
During the past two weeks, his teammate, D’Onta Foreman, has received an average of 11 touch opportunities to Ford’s seven. Second-year RB Pierre Strong Jr. has made this a three-headed committee; no Browns running back has seen greater than a 35 percent snap share in that span.
It’s best to avoid this backfield altogether, but if you take the plunge, I’d honestly look to Foreman as the deep flex play. Well, unless Nick Chubb returns.
Braelon Allen deserves a lot of credit for his talent and productivity in spurts this season. The issue is, he’s only flashing in spurts — this is still Breece Hall’s proverbial house.
Acknowledging the significant changes in the Jets’ coaching staff of late, Week 6’s Monday night bout against the Buffalo Bills gave us our first look at what New York looks like with new offensive play-caller Todd Downing. In that contest, Allen only played 18.6 percent of offensive snaps in a close back-and-forth effort.
He’s a fine desperation flex, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable trusting Allen with any gusto. Oh, and did I mention that the Pittsburgh Steelers’ front ranks fifth-best in run defense DVOA this year?
Kimani Vidal is another rookie who’s shown limited impact and who likely shouldn’t be trusted. The Chargers utilized the Troy product on a limited basis (24 percent snap share) and did squeeze a nice receiving touchdown out of his efforts. Still, it’s too early on in his tenure to trust.
That said, Gus Edwards (ankle) is on IR for at least the next three weeks. Trusting Vidal might be a questionable idea, but slotting him in on your bench? Now that’s good practice.
Week 7 Wide Receiver Starts
- Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants (vs PHI)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs (@ SF)
- Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (@ MIN)
Let’s play a game called "What Do They Have In Common?" Each of these three receivers share a common benefit in their Week 7 matchups:
- All three of their opponents (Eagles, 49ers, and Vikings) rank within the top 10 of fantasy points per game allowed to slot receivers, according to Razzball.
Although Williams isn’t a primary slot receiver (34 percent slot rate), all three see at least one-third of their routes come from the slot. Robinson and Smith-Schuster are going up against the third- and ninth-easiest matchups, respectively, and Williams is a threat from just about anywhere.
To date, the former Alabama star has recorded at least 75 receiving yards in all but one game and leads the Lions in air yards share (39.2 percent) and yards per route run (2.59).
Williams may feel like a big play trickster, but he’s a fairly central focus of the offense in reality.
These are primarily flex-level players we’re talking about, but each has shown a penchant for their craft(s) of late and ought to be in lineups everywhere in Week 7.
Week 7 Wide Receiver Sits
- Allen Lazard, New York Jets (@ PIT)
- Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (vs CIN)
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs NYJ)
In keeping with the spirit of reflecting on the Davante Adams and Amari Cooper trades, the receiving corps of every team involved was affected.
Lazard, who somehow leads all NFL receivers with five touchdowns, is likely relegated to third-in-line for targets with Adams and the incumbent, Garrett Wilson, poised to be co-alpha archetypes.
Remember when Lazard was an occasionally exciting player in Green Bay, provided someone ahead of him got hurt? Yep, we’re doing that again.
As for Jeudy, the vacancy left behind by Cooper does allow him to hypothetically elevate to WR1 status on the Browns, but what is that worth? Cleveland ranks third-worst in passing yards per game (143.0) and last in Pro Football Reference’s expected points (-51.17).
The only “winner” in the Cooper trade is Cooper, who gets to leave an offense led by Deshaun Watson, and no one remaining wins.
In closing with Pickens, I am not particularly trustworthy of a player potentially undergoing a possible quarterback change against one of the league’s stronger secondaries (the Jets rank 12th in pass defense DVOA).
As I said in my weekly rankings, I believe a Pickens breakout is coming, but I’m more comfortable looking for that in Week 8 vs. the New York Giants.
Week 7 Tight End Starts
- Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders (@ LAR)
- Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs SEA)
- Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs BAL)
If we’re honest with ourselves, Brock Bowers is the biggest winner of the Davante Adams trade.
Yes, you’re starting arguably the best tight end in fantasy. I can hear the muttering sounds of “nice tip, Mr. Expert,” but it’s worth mentioning here just how good Bowers is as a rookie.
Among tight ends who’ve run at least 50 routes this season, the rookie leads in targets per route run (0.29) and ranks second in yards per route run (2.37), target share (22.2 percent), and first-read rate (24.4 percent). Can you just imagine how good he could be unencumbered by the presence of another star pass-catcher?
It could be historic.
Back to more helpful information, I’m more trustworthy of Kyle Pitts now. From Week 1 to 4, he’d only seen a 67.5 percent route participation and 10.9 target share. After barely being involved to open the season, Pitts is seeing a slight uptick to 72.0 and 14.6 percent, respectively, in each of the aforementioned involvement measures during the past two games.
At this rate, he may not be in line to become a massive PPR stud, but Pitts is at least trending toward starting reliability. The same can also be said of Cade Otton, who’s seeing 6.3 targets per game in the past three weeks in the Buccaneers’ offense.
Week 7 Tight End Sits
- Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (@ MIN)
- David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (vs CIN)
- Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (@ PIT)
I shared this same anecdote in my weekly rankings, but it bears repeating that Sam LaPorta is only logging a 59.3 percent route participation (third on the team) and a 10.9 target share that ties with teammate WR Tim Patrick during the last two games played in Week 4 and 6.
No bye week adjustment saw LaPorta get more involved, like when he was as a rookie. All of those nice things I said before about Jameson Williams are (at least to some broad degree) affecting LaPorta's viability.
It stinks to say, but he might be a dud.
A similar fate might now seal the luck of David Njoku, who, despite receiving a 15.4 percent target share during the past two weeks, is averaging just 22.5 receiving yards per game. The Browns’ offense is garbage, as established earlier, and it’s likely kaput for the whole lot of pass-catchers unless Jameis Winston finally gets the quarterback nod.
And with Conklin… you know. I’m already burying Lazard’s relevance with Adams coming to town. I’m not about to defend a fringe tight end, either.
