Fantasy
10/24/24
5 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Expert Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 8
We’re officially at the midway point of the fantasy season.
Well, either this week or next. Week 17 adds an odd number into the fray, which gives us no exact middle, but it’s worth mentioning to reiterate the purpose behind what’s happening.
Most managers are keen to know how risk-averse they can be, where their record stands, and how many more victories can all but lock up a playoff spot. Others must be willing to take some bold but informed swings with their lineup choices to keep their season alive.
The end of October is not the time to take our foot off the gas — this is where we soldier through. Are you ready to discuss some of the best starts and sits for Week 8? Let’s get after it:
NFL Week 8 Start, Sit Fantasy Football Advice
Week 8 Quarterback Starts
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (@ MIA)
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (@ WAS)
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs TEN)
For as inconsistent as Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense have been, the undercurrent of his rushing efforts keeps Murray’s fantasy value afloat.
Through seven games, the former Heisman Trophy winner has rushed for fewer than 45 yards in a game just twice. Yes, it’s fair to mention that Murray boasts four games of fewer than 200 passing yards, but in a pretend game where math is involved, the rushing numbers (typically one point per 10 yards) make up for the lack of passing numbers (typically one point per 25 yards).
Though the Miami Dolphins pass defense (13th in DVOA) is strong, its ability to stop rushers is suspect. It ranks third-worst in run defense DVOA (30th), per FTN. I expect RB James Conner and Murray to have a field day this weekend on the road.
Another quarterback who can run quite effectively is Caleb Williams. The rookie averaged 34 rushing yards per game in his last three contests prior to the Bears’ Week 7 bye.
Coming out of that resting period, this fellow ex-Heisman recipient will test his mettle against an improving albeit still bad Washington Commanders secondary (25th in pass defense DVOA). Hopefully, Jayden Daniels (ribs) will suit up for this titan clash of rookies to maximize the intrigue and possibility of a high-scoring total.
Lastly, as I mentioned in my latest rankings article, Jared Goff ranks first among quarterbacks in completion rate (85.3 percent), third in passing yards per game (295.7), and has led the position in fantasy points per dropback (0.85) since Week 4, according to Fantasy Points Data. The man is on fire of late.
Check that article out weekly, and stay ready for the update that comes on Fridays.
Week 8 Quarterback Sits
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (@ LV)
- Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (vs BAL)
- Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (@ DEN)
The realities of the NFL don’t always translate directly to fantasy football.
Take Patrick Mahomes as a prime example. Would I want him as the starter for my favorite NFL team? Absolutely; it’s likely that the majority of fans would agree with that. Mahomes is arguably the best quarterback of his generation and may go down as the greatest.
But for fantasy purposes, he’s been a disaster. The reigning Super Bowl champion has yet to record a game of more than 20 fantasy points in four-point per passing touchdown scoring and is tied for the NFL lead with eight interceptions.
The losses of RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Rashee Rice have limited this offense, and despite their undefeated record, the Chiefs haven’t been super friendly to fantasy managers. I’m willing to give them some time to turn fortunes around now that DeAndre Hopkins is joining the fold via a trade from the Tennessee Titans, but that doesn’t mean Mahomes belongs in lineups in 1-QB leagues.
When all is said and done with my final rankings update, I’ll have Jameis Winston inside my top 24. Everything written about him from this week’s waiver wire article still holds, and Superflex managers should be excited to fire up the former No. 1 overall pick.
What concerns me in Week 8 is that the Baltimore Ravens are fourth in run defense DVOA and will likely key in on shutting down RB Nick Chubb to force Winston into errant throws.
This isn’t an earth-shattering idea, considering that’s how most of Winston’s career has gone so far, but that specific stone-walling factor of the Ravens front makes me want to avoid Winston in 1-QB leagues.
As for Bryce Young and the Panthers, we've already seen this story. There's a reason he got benched in the first place.
With that all in mind, I’m just not thrilled about his odds of getting much done through the air against a Denver Broncos defense ranked fourth in pass defense DVOA and allows just 170.7 passing yards per game (fifth-lowest in the NFL). Maybe the time off helped, but I wouldn't bank on a lot.
Week 8 Running Back Starts
- Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs ATL)
- Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (@ LAR)
- Tyler Goodson, Indianapolis Colts (@ HOU)
Somewhat lost in the fray of the Bucky Irving/Sean Tucker excitement in Tampa Bay is the fact that Rachaad White won't just roll over and stop producing.
The third-year back still has a vital role in the Bucs’ offense, particularly as a pass-catcher. Even though the team deployed all three backs in Week 7 vs. the Ravens, White led the bunch with a 40.4 percent route participation rate and 16 total touches.
The losses of Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring) could lead to a slight uptick in White’s receiving, but even if not, there’s no reason to believe the diminishing health of surrounding teammates will negatively impact his role. It is just a good reminder that White is still viable.
Another veteran who doesn’t seem willing to roll over is Aaron Jones, reemerging from the Minnesota Vikings’ bye week with 116 scrimmage yards on 17 touches and a hefty 76.9 percent snap share.
The hip injury he sustained in Week 5 doesn’t seem to be much of a factor anymore, and teammate Ty Chandler only saw two touches in Week 7.
And finally, assuming Jonathan Taylor (ankle) continues to sit out, the viable alternative in this Colts backfield is not Trey Sermon. Change-of-pace back Tyler Goodson is averaging 10.1 points per game in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring on the strength of 11.7 touch opportunities per game in the past three weeks, outperforming Sermon in each of those areas.
If you need a plug-and-play streamer this week, don’t even think about Sermon.
Week 8 Running Back Sits
- Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (vs ARI)
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (@ PIT)
- Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (vs MIN)
Raheem Mostert has been practically useless since his return from a Week 1 chest injury.
During the past two games the Dolphins have played (Week 5 and 7), the veteran leads the backfield in snap share (44.8 percent) and total touches (40) yet can only muster 6.2 PPR points per game, according to FantasyData.
It’s crucial to factor in that QB Tua Tagovailoa’s absence substantially lowered the effectiveness of this offense. So, in fairness, I’m not recommending anything crazy regarding Mostert. He’s not droppable, and he could bounce back this week with any luck of Tagovailoa’s potential return to play.
Still, the Cardinals' defense ranks 10th in run defense DVOA and presents a tough enough Week 8 scenario that I’m okay with leaving Mostert on the bench for now.
With Tyrone Tracy Jr., I could regret doubting his emergence, but Week 8 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers is just not a matchup I want to rely upon for fantasy points. In addition to being the third-highest-rated run defense in DVOA this year, the Steelers have allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards (498) of any team.
The Giants backfield conundrum also isn’t solved yet. We’ve only seen one game with Devin Singletary back, and that was with a lingering groin injury. There’s no telling if the rookie has usurped Singletary yet.
We close this section with another rookie who has done essentially nothing for fantasy managers. Blake Corum has appeared on just 9.4 percent of the Los Angeles Rams offensive snaps this season, with a whopping total of 17 touches all year.
Succinctly, I see no point in continuing to roster the former Michigan standout in most 10- or 12-team leagues.
Week 8 Wide Receiver Starts
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs NYG)
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (@ LAR)
- Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens (@ CLE)
Perhaps Russell Wilson being named the Steelers’ QB1 is all that George Pickens needed to succeed.
In their first game together in Week 7 vs. the New York Jets, Pickens registered a whopping 0.33 targets per route run, essentially meaning that on one out of every three routes ran, the ball came his way.
Also helping his case is that the Giants' defense ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA vs. an opponent’s WR1, according to FTN. It's pretty handy that we have that kind of data, right?
I’ll freely admit my Addison pick for this week is vibes-based. I see this game between the Rams and the Minnesota Vikings going for big points. Cooper Kupp may be coming back, and the two head coaches on the sideline used to be mentor-mentees, the whole gamut. Do with that what you will.
As far as Rashod Bateman goes, there are tangible and interesting stats behind this call.
During the past three weeks, the former first-round pick has run just nine fewer routes than lead wideout Zay Flowers and stands atop the Ravens in air yards share (29 percent) to go along with a robust 17.2 percent first-read target rate.
The Ravens have been much better at unleashing their passing attack lately, and as long as Lamar Jackson continues to emphasize airing it out downfield, Bateman should continue being a key contributor.
Week 8 Wide Receiver Sits
- Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns (vs BAL)
- Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (@ HOU)
- Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (@ SEA)
Look, I’m all for being bold when need be.
The reasons I recommended Cedric Tillman as a deep-league waiver add this week still apply. Anyone who receives 12 targets in a game with a new quarterback in tow who fundamentally changes the offense is worth watching.
But until we see Tillman genuinely emerge as the potential WR1 for Jameis Winston, it might be best to leave the cursory pieces on the Cleveland Browns alone.
I touched on this in my weekly rankings, but it bears repeating that Michael Pittman Jr. is a dreadful fantasy option with Anthony Richardson as the team’s starter. Across the four games in which Richardson has been healthy (Week 1-3, Week 7), Pittman Jr.’s raw receiving output (factoring in only catch and yardage accumulation) has resulted in an average of 7.3 PPR points per game.
It almost feels like the fantasy community is relentlessly picking on Richardson and the Colts, but when something is performing sub-optimally, it deserves the dunk fest that follows.
With Coleman, he did have a nice Week 7 vs. the Titans (4 catches for 127 receiving yards). However, the concept that the addition of Amari Cooper “opened things up” for the rookie is just patently false. I’m supportive of picking up Coleman, but we should pump the brakes before throwing him in the lineup.
Week 8 Tight End Starts
- Ja’Tavion Sanders, Carolina Panthers (@ DEN)
- Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs ATL)
- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (@ SEA)
In case you missed it, Ja’Tavion Sanders is beginning to ascend.
The rookie ranks second on the Panthers in target share (19.8 percent) and boasts a stellar 1.73 yards per route run since Week 5. Even last week, when he was against the Commanders, he occupied a jarring 33.3 percent of the target share in the offense.
While that aggressive Week 7 spike could be anomalous in time, what isn’t a one-off is the 21.1 percent first-read target share that Sanders holds in the span mentioned above, ranking ninth among fellow tight ends. Scoop the youngster now before he fully takes off.
I don’t know how much explaining I need to do for Cade Otton, but the Bucs being without their top two receivers means that the tight end with the 16.7 percent target share is at least likely to benefit.
Lastly, Dalton Kincaid will face a great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, a defense that was one of only six units to allow at least 40 receptions and 300 receiving yards to opposing tight ends in 2024.
Ripe for a true breakout, yeah?
Week 8 Tight End Sits
- Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (@ CLE)
- Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (vs IND)
- Jonnu Smith (if Tua Tagovailoa plays), Miami Dolphins (vs ARI)
The last trio of games has seen Mark Andrews return to life in the Ravens’ offense.
Great news for folks who held out hope for the former Pro Bowler, but not so wonderful for folks who’ve been hoping Isaiah Likely could maintain a role. We already spoke earlier about how that’s Rashod Bateman’s gig, but for context, Likely is only running 58.7 percent of routes with just 10 targets since Week 5.
Whatever hope was there is dead, just like any prayer that Dalton Schultz can accomplish anything with Nico Collins out of the lineup.
Seriously, why even bother with a player who’s averaging three catches for 29.7 receiving yards per game since Week 5 without a healthy Collins? This absence, in theory, should’ve helped elevate Schultz into co-star status with WR Tank Dell while Stefon Diggs operates as the lead guy, but nothing substantive has come from the opportunity. Just stay away at this point.
We must caution against Jonnu Smith. Yes, he’s averaged 7.5 targets and 79 receiving yards per game in the past two games, but that production has come at the cost of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
We cannot be sure that Tagovailoa, assuming he returns in Week 8, will favor Smith in the same way Tyler Huntley has. I think folks in desperate deep-league situations can throw the former Titan into the mix, but don’t be shocked if Smith delivers a dud.
