Fantasy
11/27/24
6 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Advice for NFL Week 13
The end of the regular season is imminent in both NFL and fantasy football.
But for the latter, there are only about two weeks left until the “playoffs” start. That means the gravity behind every head-to-head matchup is all the more important to win. In order to guarantee a playoff berth, sound lineup decisions must be made.
Of course, a major U.S. holiday involving hefty travel for many people happening in the middle of this complicates matters. No one blames you if fantasy football isn’t your primary focus this Thanksgiving season.
Still, if you set your lineups now and just relax without thinking about it, you’ll thank yourself later.
Allow me to help you cram for Week 13 with some helpful information you need in a nutshell to help guide the path toward fantasy victory:
Week 13 Fantasy Football Start, Sit Advice
Week 13 Quarterback Starts
- Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs (vs LV)
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs IND)
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (@ JAC)
Mahomes II is on an absolute heater. He’s thrown for three touchdowns in as many contests in the past month, averaging 255.5 passing yards and 21.4 fantasy points per game, fourth among quarterbacks in four-point per passing touchdown scoring, according to FantasyData.
This Friday, the defending Super Bowl champion will face a Las Vegas Raiders defense that ranks seventh-worst in FTN’s pass defense DVOA metric and allows a touchdown rate of 5.6 percent to opposing passing offenses, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, per Pro Football Reference.
Although Maye hasn’t been a breakout star, he’s performed relatively well this season in a suboptimal New England Patriots offense. Since becoming the starter in Week 6, the rookie averages 39.1 rushing yards per game, the third-highest total among quarterbacks in that span. That rushing floor is a nice boost for fantasy managers, and Maye is set for a reasonably good Week 13 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
Just how good of a matchup is it? The Colts surrender the sixth-most passing yards per game (233.3) in 2024 and allow an average of 17.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, according to FantasyPros.
As I shared in my weekly rankings article, Stroud is in a great spot to continue building upon a strong Week 12 this coming Sunday against the AFC South rival Jacksonville Jaguars, whose secondary ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA in 2024, according to FTN. The last time these franchises squared off in Week 4, Stroud ended his day with 345 passing yards and two passing touchdowns.
Sure, that was with a healthy Stefon Diggs in tow, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see similar results against the NFL’s poorest secondary.
Week 13 Quarterback Sits
- Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (vs LAC)
- Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys (vs NYG)
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (vs ARI)
I hate to pick on Cousins again, as I already did so to a decent degree in my rankings write-up. Still, it bears repeating that outside of two stellar games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the veteran has netted a 1.125:1 interception-to-touchdown ratio with just one top-12 weekly finish.
Lately, he has been held to two consecutive games without a passing score, and Cousins’ average of 14.4 fantasy points per game stands as his lowest output since becoming a starting quarterback in the NFL in 2015.
As for Cooper Rush and Sam Darnold, are they really that bad? I’m not so sure.
Candidly, they’re being written about here because they could be fun Superflex options, and I just wanted an excuse to discuss them without naming them as 1-QB league “starts,” if that makes sense.
Rush hasn’t been super effective filling in for the injured Dak Prescott, but to his credit, he is averaging 300.5 passing yards per game with a respectable 64.4 percent completion rate across his last two starts with 17.2 fantasy points per game. The New York Giants are a good matchup, too, standing fourth-worst pass defense DVOA and allowing 17.4 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2024.
If you want to make your holiday more fun, consider Rush, but again, only in Superflex.
As for Darnold, aside from one poor performance against the Jaguars in Week 10, he’s actually finished as a weekly top 10 fantasy quarterback three times in the past four games. The journeyman also sits fourth among QBs in that span with 276.8 passing yards per game.
Still, a rushing touchdown in Week 11 vs. the Tennessee Titans and last Sunday’s contest against the Chicago Bears going to overtime inflate Darnold’s stats a bit, to be fair. I wouldn’t be thrilled to start him, but he’s not as aggressively bad as his ranking would indicate.
Week 13 Running Back Starts
- Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (vs LV)
- Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ CAR)
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CIN)
Pacheco returned to a full practice session on Wednesday and is seemingly on track to play on Friday vs. the Las Vegas Raiders after missing nine contests due to a broken fibula in Week 2.
While it’s reasonably safe to assume a fair number of fantasy managers who drafted the former seventh-round pick are no longer in contention, just as a reminder, we’re talking about a player who averaged 18.1 touch opportunities (carries + targets) and 84.2 scrimmage yards per game as a majority backfield leader in 2023.
Congratulations if you could acquire Pacheco either via trade or off the waiver wire earlier in the year. Your patience is soon to be rewarded.
A fellow 2022 NFL Draft class member, Rachaad White, is set for an excellent opportunity in Week 12, going up against a Carolina Panthers defense that allows the most rushing yards per game (160.5) this season.
Although his teammate Bucky Irving is beginning to narrow the committee gap in this backfield, fantasy managers have at least this coming weekend to utilize the third-year runner before a risk of descent into irrelevance can occur. The possibility White may begin to fade is a concern, though — we’ll revisit this one next week if Irving continues to chip away into a 50/50 split.
Finally, we can close this section by discussing Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris. Despite not putting up world-beating numbers this year, the bruiser is averaging 85.8 scrimmage yards per game and has, for the most part, been an effective fantasy back.
Another fun fact is that he’s working to build toward a fourth-straight season of at least 1,000 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns to open his career.
Can he achieve those milestones? Who knows, but going up against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that allows 129.8 rushing yards per game should help. It’s also worth mentioning that the Bengals have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season, which is the fourth-highest total in the league.
Week 13 Running Back Sits
- The Denver Broncos backfield
I’m cheating here a bit by lumping together a trio of players on the same team, but frankly, it’s worth discussing.
The Denver Broncos have had three different backfield “leaders” in terms of end-of-game box score totals through the past three weeks: Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin.
In this time frame, none of the individuals have registered a snap share above 50 percent, nor a minimum 1/3 share of the backfield carries, per Fantasy Points Data. Sean Payton's desire to ride the proverbial hot hand is simply becoming too much to attempt to parse through, particularly as none of them are taking a stranglehold on being a true “lead runner” at all.
Unless something dramatic changes, here’s how you should approach the Broncos backfield from here on out:
Williams is technically the leader. He runs the most routes as a pass-catcher and has yet to record more than one game below a 50 percent snap share. He’s also finished as a top-36 running back in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring in nearly 60 percent of games this season.
That much is true, and that’s about it.
Even then, it’s a little complicated once we remember that Estime had to work his way into a role after spending time on IR with an ankle injury earlier this year. Hence, this three-week evaluation window was chosen for this exercise.
So the short of it is, you have about a three-in-five shot at Williams being a flex at best. Playing anyone else is sending luck down a crapshoot.
You should probably just not start any of them, but that’s how I’m choosing to view the Broncos, and I will do my damndest to avoid writing about them again unless something dramatic changes.
Week 13 Wide Receiver Starts
- Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (vs CHI)
- Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders (@ KC)
- Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants (@ DAL)
For as difficult a matchup as the Chicago Bears secondary is this year, ranking 10th best in pass defense DVOA, it’s not a wholly infallible unit.
According to FTN’s data, the Chicago Bears defense allows the fourth-most receiving yards per game (62.1) to an opposing team’s WR2. As such, this week stands to greatly benefit Jameson Williams, who’s seen 23.9 percent of QB Jared Goff’s first read targets since returning to the lineup in Week 10.
Between the Lions’ emphasis to feature him in the offense and the Bears’ propensity to allow hefty production to "non-alpha" wideouts, a colossal spike week for Williams is likely enough that I encourage anyone to throw him into both season-long lineups and any sort of DFS contest on Thanksgiving Day.
Calling back to my rankings article once more, folks must remember how good Jakobi Meyers has been since returning from injury in Week 8. The Raiders wideout is averaging 7.0 receptions and 71.8 receiving yards per game in that four-game span, ranking 11th among receivers with 16.6 PPR points per game.
Just roll with him; it’s working.
To wrap up the receiver starts section, I want to exercise one more plea to people that Wan’Dale Robinson doesn’t belong on waivers. Managers who dropped the New York Giants’ slotsman are missing out on a player averaging 8.1 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 40.1 receiving yards per game and ranks eighth among receivers in targets this season (89).
Though his counting stats aren’t routinely stellar, Robinson has recorded at least 8 PPR points in every game but one in 2024. These hollow, PPR-driven achievements are worth at least a flex consideration, not disposal.
Week 13 Wide Receiver Sits
- Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (@ DET)
- Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns (@ DEN)
The case for Rome Odunze being a “sit” is a touch on the complicated side.
Despite registering a 24.1 percent target share and team-leading 39.0 percent air yards share in two weeks under new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown’s reign, the rookie is only netting an average of 10.7 PPR points per game.
Odunze hasn’t been demonstratively bad per se, but you’d hope a receiver seeing this much attention could turn more of these opportunities into points. However, it came to my attention that the ex-Washington standout is on the receiving end of a catchable target rate of 57.9 percent of the throws from QB Caleb Williams — that’s not Odunze’s fault.
There is a path for Odunze to improve, and I look forward to starting him more comfortably if he and Williams can build upon their rapport. It’s just not a great week to count on that coming to fruition, considering that the Detroit Lions’ secondary ranks first in pass defense DVOA in 2024.
Similar issues befall our next subject, Cedric Tillman.
The last two weeks have seen the second-year big man slide back into mediocrity, returning a mere 5.2 PPR points per game. The former third-rounder stands fourth on the Browns in target share (14.9 percent) in this window after leading the team with a 22.3 percent share in Cleveland’s three prior contests.
I don't have an excellent grasp on why Tillman has fallen out of favor, but Jameis Winston favors greater diversity in target distribution. That’s never an unhealthy choice for an offensive ecosystem in the grand scheme of things. Still, this reality, matched with a problematic Week 13 matchup vs. the Denver Broncos (sixth in pass defense DVOA), adds up to a player that should be avoided in season-long lineups.
Week 13 Tight End Starts
- Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (vs LAR)
- Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (vs NYG)
- Will Dissly, Los Angeles Chargers (@ ATL)
The Week 12 bye week may have caused some to forget, but Taysom Hill is that dude.
The Swiss Army knife-like weapon is averaging 8.3 touch opportunities per game across seven healthy contests in 2024; that doesn’t even factor in the designed passes that the New Orleans Saints draw up for him in certain situations and packages.
This level of dynamism is valuable for fantasy purposes. It should manifest itself in Week 12 against a Los Angeles Rams team that ranks 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in run and pass defense DVOA this season.
Starting Jake Ferguson this week is an idea brought to you by vibes. Okay, that’s insufficient evidence, but the spirit of the recent glowing numbers from Cooper Rush I highlighted earlier is worth reiterating here.
Indeed, the Cowboys’ passing attack has seen marked improvement in the past two weeks, and let’s not forget how good Luke Schoonmaker was in Week 12 (3 receptions, 55 receiving yards, and one touchdown vs. the Washington Commanders) in Ferguson’s absence due to a concussion.
By virtue of simply being available in Week 13, Ferguson is someone I want to start in lineups. If you were thinking about Schoonmaker as a waiver option this week, then that says all you need to know about Ferguson.
This final notation goes out to all the hardcore fantasy players who only play on the Sleeper platform and frequently opine online that a lot of fantasy football content only caters to folks in ESPN or Yahoo leagues.
“[X player] is already rostered in my league,” you say as if perceived “surface-level” material doesn’t apply to you. Well, guess which standout tight end is only rostered in 54 percent of redraft Sleeper leagues as of this writing?
Will Dissly of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks 10th among tight ends in receiving yards per game (40.8) and 13th in PPR points per game (10.5) throughout the past seven weeks. You may feel tired hearing about him, but the fact remains that Dissly is still criminally underappreciated across the greater fantasy universe — go ahead and change that.
Week 13 Tight End Sits
- Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ CIN)
- Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (vs CHI)
Like the quarterback “sits” segment, we’ll close this article by discussing a couple of tight ends worth a long-shot play in Week 13 but should be advised against based on risk.
It is tempting to start Freiermuth in a matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that allows the second-most half-PPR points per game (12.9) to opposing tight ends this season. Yes, the Bengals have seen a tight end score a touchdown in each of the last three games and have ushered seven total touchdowns to the position in 2024, second-most in the league.
But Freiermuth has been virtually absent from the Steelers' offense during the past month (2.8 receptions and 27.2 receiving yards per game). Is that the type of player you want to hitch your wagon to with a potential playoff berth on the line? Not necessarily, but if you need a prayer for a fluky touchdown, you could do much worse.
Lastly, any manager who drafted Sam LaPorta with a premium pick this year is undoubtedly having a bad time.
The sophomore pass-catcher has largely cratered back to earth following a stellar debut campaign. Inconsistencies have plagued the Iowa alum, although he’s seen at six targets in back-to-back contests, and the Chicago Bears have allowed a robust 61.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends in 2024.
The only things stopping me from touting LaPorta more are that a.) I’ve already touted Jameson Williams as a sharp play, and b.) Amon-Ra St. Brown still exists as the primary target in this offense.
Betting on three primary pass-catchers to go off against a stout Bears secondary would be unwise, but if you think the spirit of a Lions game on Thanksgiving is enough for everyone to thrive, go nuts.
Enjoy the holiday, the football, and safe travels to all.
