Fantasy
12/5/24
15 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Advice for NFL Week 14
Deep breaths now, everyone — only one more regular season contest to go.
Well, at least for the fantasy season, anyway. The vast majority of leagues these days don’t play into Week 18, so this upcoming slate of NFL action will most likely be the final obstacle between managers and the fantasy playoffs. The importance of Week 14 is massive.
Already without six teams on a bye week, the challenges are apparent. No Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Courtland Sutton, or Terry McLaurin just to name a few superstars who won’t suit up. But that doesn’t mean you just fold and start anyone and everyone to field a legal lineup.
Indeed, you must still be discerning in the decisions you make to ensure a certain victory. Today, let’s talk through some of my favorite starts and sits for Week 14 of the fantasy season:
NFL Week 14 Fantasy Football Start, Sit Advice
Week 14 Quarterback Starts
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs LV)
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (@ SF)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs NYJ)
Admittedly, Mayfield has taken a step back during the past month or so. The former Heisman Trophy winner is averaging just 215.0 passing yards per game during the past three weeks, but that’s more of a factor of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense skewing run-heavy (PROE of at least -6.0 percent in two of the last three games, per Fantasy Points Data).
Still, there’s reason to be optimistic this week, going up against a very soft opponent in the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank 25th in pass defense DVOA in 2024, according to FTN.
Calling back to my waiver articles over the past two weeks, I’ve been recommending stashing Caleb Williams for this bye week disaster for a while.
According to FantasyData, the rookie has averaged 275.7 passing yards and 47.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown in charge, and his 23.1 fantasy points per game in four-point per passing touchdown scoring ranks fourth-best among quarterbacks in that span.
You needed a bye week filler at quarterback, and hopefully, this is the one you found. Fire up Williams with confidence on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.
We close this section with Tua Tagovailoa, who, during the past three weeks, ranks second behind Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow in both passing yards per game (323.3) and fantasy points per game (25.7). Moreover, the former Alabama star sits third in EPA per dropback (0.36) at a clip of 8.36 adjusted yards per pass attempt, registering as fourth-highest among quarterbacks in that time frame, per TruMedia.
The Miami Dolphins offense is finally humming, and a lot of that success can be attributed to the lefty’s resurgence of efficiency. I’ll be keenly excited to see if he can keep it up in an AFC East showdown against the struggling New York Jets.
Week 14 Quarterback Sits
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs SEA)
- Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (@ PIT)
- Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (@ PHI)
I’ve done my damndest to defend Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals offense this season, but their inconsistencies in the passing game have made it difficult to do so.
During the past month of the season, the electric dual-threat signal-caller has recorded not one game with multiple passing scores and has only exceeded the 250 passing yard mark in two of the contests. The fantasy results have been somewhat lame as well, only adding up to 14.1 points per game.
When we last saw Murray take on the Seahawks (11th in pass defense DVOA) in Week 12, he was held scoreless through the air and contained for a measly nine rushing yards. I just don’t want to push my chips into the middle of the table in a crucial spot with Murray this week.
As for Winston, I think Monday night’s two pick-six showing against the Denver Broncos says all you need to know about the risk involved in starting him. This week, he’ll be going up against a stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks eighth-best in pass defense DVOA in 2024, a matchup I’d prefer to avoid.
But when it comes to Bryce Young, I wanted to take a moment to acknowledge the recent success of last year’s number-one overall pick.
After enduring multiple struggles in 2023 and a benching earlier this season, the sleight-framed athlete has shown remarkable growth en route to averaging 229.0 passing yards and one aerial score per game during the past three weeks.
Sure, these are not eye-popping numbers, but considering how little we thought of Young as recently as September, I’m happy to see him turn things around.
This week’s matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles is tricky, as they’ve allowed fewer than 206 passing yards per game in each of their last five contests, so obviously, you shouldn’t start Young. It’s simply nice to see progress from a quarterback we thought might be toast for good not too long ago.
Week 14 Running Back Starts
- Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (vs CIN)
- Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers (vs CHI)
- D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (@ SF)
During the past two weeks, according to Fantasy Points Data, Dowdle has recorded the fourth-most rush attempts (41) of any running back in the league while playing on at least 63.9 percent of the team’s snaps in that span.
Prior to this window, the former UDFA had only three other games with participation on more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps. The team’s willingness to finally lean on Dowdle as a bell cow should pay dividends in Week 14, going up against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA.
If you’ve been living under a rock, allow me to inform you that the San Francisco 49ers have a new RB1 in town.
Without Christian McCaffrey (PCL) and Jordan Mason (ankle) in tow, it’ll be up to rookie Isaac Guerendo to take on the Chicago Bears in Week 14. Luckily for the Louisville alum, the Bears rank third-worst in run defense DVOA and allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game (135.1) this season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Hopefully, you were lucky enough to score Guerendo off the waiver wire. This is about as good of a spot to go off as possible.
Speaking of good spots, the other running back in this contest could be in for some quality production. While circumstances have been difficult for D’Andre Swift, the veteran still sees 15.7 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game in three games under offensive coordinator Thomas Brown.
Fortunately for him, the San Francisco 49ers have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (19) in 2024 and have allowed at least 94 rushing yards to opposing offenses in each of the past four games.
Week 14 Running Back Sits
- Ameer Abdullah, Las Vegas Raiders (@ TB)
- Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (vs BUF)
- Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (@ PHI)
Despite seeing a 52.6 percent route participation rate and playing on 61.9 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 13, Abdullah has been out-shined by teammate Sincere McCormick recently.
The UDFA from UTSA saw a team-leading 12 carries for 64 rushing yards in the contest vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, which stands as the second-highest total recorded by a Raiders back this season behind only Alexander Mattison in Week 7 (92 yards on 23 totes vs. the Los Angeles Rams).
This may be the McCormick show from here on out, as Mattison and Zamir White are still battling serious injuries that kept both out of the lineup for the past two games.
It’s already enough of an ambiguous backfield situation, and right now, conventional wisdom says ride the hot hand. In this case, that’s not Abdullah.
Rookie Blake Corum's 32.7 percent snap share and 27.6 percent of the Rams’ carries (8) last week show promise, but he has a long way to go before finding relevance as a true complement to Kyren Williams. His contributions against the New Orleans Saints still only amount to 42 rushing yards, and it’s not as though this “breakout” did much for fantasy managers in the box score.
The ex-Michigan standout is still worth stashing as a handcuff but probably won't hold enough standalone value to help in Week 14.
Jonathon Brooks also falls into the category of rookies whose Week 13 showed promise, but more is needed to inspire being in a starting lineup.
The second-round pick recorded 41 scrimmage yards on a season-high nine touches, although only appeared on 20.6 percent of the team’s snaps against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday. The arrows are pointing up, but we should remain calm and avoid overreacting.
Week 14 Wide Receiver Starts
- DJ Moore, Chicago Bears (@ SF)
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (vs ATL)
- Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (@ KC)
Calling back to the emergence of the Bears offense, Moore is averaging 10.0 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 88.9 receiving yards per game for Moore since Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator in Week 11.
Sure, a San Francisco 49ers secondary that ranks sixth-best in pass defense DVOA isn’t the most inspiring opponent by any means. Still, the sheer passing volume we see from the Bears weekly now and the expectation that they’ll be trailing the defending NFC champions on Sunday is enough for me to feel comfortable betting on the shifty wideout in lineups as an effective WR2.
In case you missed it, Jordan Addison has actually been out-targeting teammate Justin Jefferson on a per-game basis (7.7) over the past three weeks, leading the Vikings in receiving yards per game (92.3).
Yep, I was pretty surprised by this, too, and now the former first-round pick will have a chance to repeat these efforts in Week 14 against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that’s allowed the eighth-most half-PPR points per game to opposing wide receiving corps (30.2) this season, according to FantasyPros.
Assuming Ladd McConkey’s knee doesn’t prevent him from suiting up on Sunday, the rookie is one of my favorite plays of the week.
The ex-Georgia standout is averaging 7 catches and 107.7 receiving yards per game on a whopping 28.1 percent target share during the past three weeks and will face a Kansas City Chiefs secondary that’s allowed at least 249 passing yards in each game during this same span.
Week 14 Wide Receiver Sits
- Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns (@ PIT)
- Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills (@ LAR)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans Saints (@ NYG)
The enticing performance from Elijah Moore this past Monday night (8 catches, 111 receiving yards vs. the Denver Broncos) may have you mesmerized at the thought of firing up the veteran again in Week 14, but don’t get too excited yet.
Sure, Moore went off, and Cedric Tillman may miss this week’s contest due to a concussion. However, this Sunday presents a difficult matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who rank eighth-best in pass defense DVOA in 2024.
It’s not a spot I’m comfortable betting on a team’s third receiving option. Jerry Jeudy will get his, and we’ll talk about TE David Njoku later, but those are the only Browns I’m rushing to start.
For as much as we may want to start Amari Cooper, the volume isn’t there. Since joining Buffalo in Week 7, Cooper has seen an underwhelming 13 targets in four games while running on just 50.0 percent of the team’s routes. He had one touchdown catch that came back in Week 7 against Tennesee, but otherwise, that’s about all the production we can speak of.
Cooper might just be finding his footing on a new team, and the path to more consistent volume may be coming at some point in Buffalo. However, the usage information we have now suggests Cooper is a “wait and see” type of situation. He belongs on a roster, just not in a starting lineup.
Indeed, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has assumed the “Rashid Shaheed” role in the New Orleans Saints offense over the past three weeks, but that’s a dangerous role to count on weekly.
His aDOT of 23.6 yards is a ridiculously unstable measure, meaning that it’s difficult to bet on a guy corralling the ball one-quarter of the length of the field every time the ball comes his way.
The strength of the acronymous MVS’ breakout during the past trio of weeks also stems from finding the end zone four times on these long receptions, so if a long catch isn’t for a touchdown, you won’t even get double-digit points from Valdes-Scantling.
I would encourage folks to stay away from one-trick pony players, but if you have to spot-start MVS, the New York Giants have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (663) on passes traveling 20+ yards in 2024. You could do worse in this spot; it’s just risky.
Week 14 Tight End Starts
- Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (vs CIN)
- David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (@ PIT)
- Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs LV)
Jake Ferguson (concussion) is trending towards being active this week against the Cincinnati Bengals and is worth a start or stream in Week 14. When he’s on the field, he’s seen consistent volume, averaging 6.4 targets per game as the second receiving option behind teammate CeeDee Lamb.
The Bengals' defensive unit is giving up an average of 13.6 half-PPR fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and has now allowed a touchdown to the position in four straight games dating back to Week 9, per 4for4.
There isn’t a lot of consistency in Cleveland right now, but Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku have been the exceptions to that rule.
Since Winston took over at quarterback midway through the Browns' Week 7 matchup against Cincinnati, Njoku has seen 59 targets, converting those into 39 catches for 308 yards and four touchdowns. Njoku is the TE5 in PPR points per game (15.1) that span, giving him the “must start every week” moniker.
As discussed in my rankings article this week, Otton has only managed to haul in 55.6 percent of his 18 targets for an average of 28.3 receiving yards and 6.2 PPR points per game during the past three weeks.
Luckily, Otton’s catchable target rate in this span also cracks at 80.0 percent, meaning that he’s bound to turn it around at some point. Sunday’s matchup against the Panthers (14.5 half-PPR points per game allowed to tight ends) feels like an excellent spot for the second-year pass-catcher to turn things around.
Week 14 Tight End Sits
- The Buffalo Bills TE (@ LAR)
- Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs (vs LAC)
We close this article much in the same way we did last week’s start/sit. Each of these players is someone I’d ideally like to avoid on risk, but some underlying information means you should at least be interested in a spot start or a long-term stash.
I don’t know as of this writing whether Dalton Kincaid (knee) or Dawson Knox will be the primary tight end for the Buffalo Bills in Week 14, so that ambiguity alone makes recommending one or the other difficult
The Los Angeles Rams are a decent matchup for tight ends this year, though, as they’ve allowed 11.5 half-PPR points per game to the position this season, the eighth-highest mark in the league.
With Gray, how could anyone have seen the emergence of a tight end in Kansas City who was not named Travis Kelce?
I certainly didn’t, but here we are. Gray, in his fourth season out of Duke, has come on strong the last three weeks, snagging four touchdowns on 12 catches with an average of 49.0 receiving yards per game that actually out-paced Kelce in that span.
However, Week 14 presents a bad matchup for Gray. The Chargers defense has been electric against the TE position, allowing the sixth-fewest half-PPR points (7.8) to the position. While Gray should remain on your bench this week, his usage is interesting, is a solid stash candidate for the fantasy playoffs.
