Fantasy
12/12/24
13 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Advice for NFL Week 15
There's no need to tapdance around with a long intro; you know what time it is.
The fantasy playoffs are here. Every choice you make is exponentially more critical now than at any point this season. Each victory draws you one step closer to the title.
Hopefully, this Week 15 start/sit article will help guide you toward your ultimate goal.
Without further delay, let’s get into it:
Week 15 Fantasy Football Start, Sit Advice
Week 15 Quarterback Starts
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs NE)
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (@ HOU)
- Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (vs IND)
Advocating for Kyler Murray has been a roller coaster in 2024, but his Week 15 matchup is too good to pass up.
The New England Patriots allow the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate of any defense in the league in 2024, according to Pro Football Reference. Additionally, their secondary ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA this season, per FTN. It’s a vulnerable defense to target.
Since Week 11, Tua Tagovailoa ranks second in EPA per dropback (0.38), third in passing yards per game (325.5), and fourth in passer rating (118.5) among all quarterbacks, per TruMedia. In addition to all of those measures, it’s worth pointing out that the Houston Texans matchup is also ripe for exploiting.
In the Texans' past four games, opposing quarterbacks have achieved a rate of 302.7 passing yards and 17.6 fantasy points per game per 4for4.
I’m sure you didn’t need much of a pep talk to add Tua to your lineups, but here it is, just in case you did.
Nix also finds himself in an advantageous spot this weekend. The Indianapolis Colts defense allows the seventh-most passing yards per game (232.4) this season, and in the last five games they’ve played, that number is even higher, at 252.2.
In addition to being exploitable through the air, the Colts have allowed an average of 26 rushing yards per game to opposing signal-callers, which bodes well considering Nix’s skill set (23.4 rushing yards per game in 2024, according to FantasyData).
Week 15 Quarterback Sits
- Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs PHI)
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots (@ ARI)
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs TB)
While Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson is one of the better stories of this season so far, Week 15’s chapter isn’t likely to be a major highlight.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary is fearsome, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (178.5) and the fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.3 percent) of any defense in the NFL in 2024. It’s about as tough of a draw as you could possibly get if you’re a quarterback.
Couple that with the fact that WR George Pickens is unlikely to play for a second game in a row due to a hamstring strain, and this matchup spells nothing but disaster for Wilson.
For as effective as Drake Maye has been at time this season, I’m not too keen on looking his way for production this weekend.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has been locking it down in the air, allowing fewer than 250 passing yards to opposing offenses in every game dating back to Week 8. I’m also not particularly confident in Maye’s safety in the pocket.
The Cardinals’ sack rate of 7.6 percent ranks 12th in the league this season, and the New England Patriots’ offensive line (43 sacks allowed, tied for fourth-most) isn’t exactly equipped to keep the rookie upright. Certainly, Maye could scramble his way to a reasonable scoring floor, but the lack of passing upside makes his Week 15 prospects shaky at best. You’re better off avoiding Maye.
Lastly, Justin Herbert has hit a skid lately. He has notched greater than 250 passing yards once in a game since Week 10. In that span, the Chargers’ offense is only scoring a touchdown on 57.1 percent of their red zone drives, a rate tied for 16th in the league with the Indianapolis Colts.
Between these struggles and a potential lingering issue stemming from the left knee contusion he suffered in Week 14, Herbert just makes me nervous. In fairness, a matchup against a soft Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense (253.4 passing yards allowed per game, third-highest in the NFL) is a good spot for him to go off.
Managers in Superflex leagues should feel free to play him.
Week 15 Running Back Starts
- Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (vs CHI)
- Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (@ NO)
- Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (vs CIN)
At this point in the season, I’m willing to start whichever running back plays against the Chicago Bears each week. Aaron Jones has the distinct pleasure of doing so on Monday, and I’m thrilled about it.
We’re talking about a Bears front that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and has allowed at least 100 rushing yards to opposing offenses in 11 of 13 games (84.6 percent) in 2024. They’re a relatively porous unit, and Jones is the type of high-volume back (18 touches per game this season) who can seize most of the opportunities without splitting work with another teammate.
It’s a recipe for success, much like starting Brian Robinson Jr. against the New Orleans Saints. Opposing running backs are averaging 88 rushing yards per game against the New Orleans Saints during the last month, and as a unit, they rank 31st in run defense DVOA this season.
But even worse than the Saints are the Cincinnati Bengals, a front that’s surrendered 27.8 points per game in point-per-reception (PPR) to opposing backfields in the last month. Ranking 26th in run defense DVOA, the Bengals have also allowed 16 rushing touchdowns in 2024, tied for the fourth-highest total in the NFL.
That’s who Tony Pollard (19.4 touches per game) gets to square off against in Week 15. Get ready for large sums of fantasy points.
Week 15 Running Back Sits
- Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (vs KC)
- Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs NYJ)
- Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (vs WAS)
This isn’t the first time I’ve picked on Nick Chubb, but it’s time to remind folks that he’s not been effective since returning in Week 7.
Even including his two-touchdown performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12, the veteran ball carrier is churning out a mere 46 scrimmage yards and 8.7 PPR points per game on 14 touches per game.
Chubb isn’t getting much done, and I don’t anticipate that a showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs (seventh-best run defense DVOA in 2024) will help much. He’s a fine flex if he falls into the end zone, but I’d prefer to keep lineups free of Chubb.
As interesting as it was to see Tank Bigsby overtake teammate Travis Etienne Jr. this week, I’ll be more interested in seeing what happens with this backfield in Week 15 without either in my lineups.
The New York Jets have surrendered fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of their past three contests, and it’s not like they held off bad running teams, either. The Indianapolis Colts with Jonathan Taylor in Week 11 (91 yards), the Seattle Seahawks with Kenneth Walker III in Week 13 following their bye (84 yards), and then this past Sunday against the De’Von Achane-led Miami Dolphins attack (44 yards).
Even if Bigsby shoulders a significant workload, the level of competition he’s set to face is likely to overmatch even the highest amount of volume.
As for Kendre Miller, the young back has gathered quite a bit of steam after recording 10 carries this past Sunday, cutting into the workload of veteran Alvin Kamara somewhat significantly.
But the reason to argue against starting him right away is that he only played on 25.8 percent of the team’s offensive snaps vs. the New York Giants, according to Fantasy Points Data, and is kind of stuck in that Blake Corum “maybe he gets one-third of the carries and that’s it” territory.
I’m open to the idea that Miller ought to be scooped off the wire and stashed if the loss of QB Derek Carr means that the Saints go run-heavy to end the season. The theoretical upside is matched with a realistic future. But until that happens, I’d rather wait to see his role grow before thrusting Miller into a flex spot.
Week 15 Wide Receiver Starts
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (vs BUF)
- Davante Adams, New York Jets (@ JAC)
- Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (vs CHI)
Before you boo and hiss, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks as the WR42 in PPR points per game (11.6) with a mere 59.3 receiving yards per game during the past three weeks.
Sometimes, it’s important to advocate for the star players you’re probably starting anyway but just need to feel better about. The Detroit Lions star runs 51.5 percent of his routes from the slot and is set to go up against a Buffalo Bills defense that allows 16.8 fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers, according to Razzball.
This game between the Lions and Bills also has the highest combined points over/under on the week at 54.5, per Vegas Insider. The overall vibes and even betting odds tell us that this ought to be a relatively high-scoring affair. It adds up enough for me to feel confident in St. BRown.
Speaking of circumstances adding up, how about a veteran superstar who, since Week 10, is averaging 10.8 targets per game (eighth among wide receivers) and 16.4 PPR points per game (17th among wide receivers) going up against the NFL’s worst secondary?
That’s what you’re getting in Davante Adams facing off against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed 169 catches to opposing wideouts this season, tied for sixth-most in the league.
Oh, and in case you forgot, Jordan Addison has been the best receiver for the Minnesota Vikings during the past month.
The second-year speedster leads the team with a 42.6 percent air yards share, 26.2 percent target share, and 35 percent market share of the Vikings’ receiving yards in this span, all ahead of Justin Jefferson.
Don’t hear what I’m not saying — Jefferson is fine and honestly not that far behind in each of these measures. Still, we must acknowledge how well Addison has performed lately and highlight that the Chicago Bears allow the fifth-highest receiving yards per game (59.2) to opposing WR2s this season, per FTN.
The numbers tell us this breakout isn’t a fluke, and the upcoming matchup gives Addison a fine opportunity to keep it going.
Week 15 Wide Receiver Sits
- Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers (vs LAR)
- DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (vs GB)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, New Orleans Saints (vs WAS)
What the heck is going on with the San Francisco 49ers lately? More specifically, why isn’t Deebo Samuel Sr. getting more involvement?
The veteran only sees 6.3 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game through the past four games and nets a putrid 24.2 scrimmage yards per game in that span. You’re lucky to get a half dozen points from Samuel Sr. at this point, which is highly disappointing for a player with such a diverse skill set.
It’s possible that the Niners could involve him more in the running game should Issac Guerendo (foot) be unable to suit up on Thursday night, but it’s probably best to be in more of a “wait-and-see” mode with Samuel Sr.
He’s simply too risky, which is similar to Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf. Despite leading his team with 7.2 targets per game in the past month, the 6-foot-4 wideout only converts his opportunities into 61.0 yards and 10.8 PPR points per game.
Also, it does not help that the Seahawks are only throwing the ball 40 percent of the time in the red zone through these four weeks, which is the sixth-lowest rate in the league.
As for Valdes-Scantling, this is just a reminder that New Orleans QB Derek Carr’s season is probably over due to a broken hand. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to ride with a deep-threat one-trick player with a mediocre backup under center.
Just saying!
Week 15 Tight End Starts
- David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (vs KC)
- Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs NYJ)
Fantasy managers who roster David Njoku are well aware of how terrific the pass-catcher has been lately, but did you know Week 15 might be his best opportunity to ball out yet?
The Cleveland Browns are set to go up against the Kansas City Chiefs this week, a team that’s surrendered the most receptions (86) and receiving yards (1,015) to opposing tight ends this year.
It’s like the mystic fantasy gods worked their powers to manifest the perfect playoff spot.
With Engram, he hasn't blown the doors off with QB Mac Jones under center, but in four games in tandem (Week 10-11, 13-4), the veteran occupies a 22.6 percent target share and sees 22.3 percent of Jones’ first-read targets in this sample.
The most important dimension you can bring to the table as a tight end is target volume and attention, and even with a backup quarterback, Engram carries both.
Week 15 Tight End Sits
- Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ LAC)
- Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (@ NYG)
I’ve harped on this a lot lately, but Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE Cade Otton is too unsafe to be trusted in fantasy lineups. In his previous four games, Otton has only converted 13 receptions on 22 targets (59.1 percent catch rate) despite seeing a catchable target rate of 81.8 percent from QB Baker Mayfield.
His recent results just concern me a bit too much. And from here, we end this exercise by talking about Mark Andrews’ brutal Week 15 matchup against the New York Giants.
No one is confusing the Giants for being a stout defense by any means, but they are fairly stingy when it comes to production allowed to opposing tight ends. Thus far in 2024, New York has surrendered the second-fewest receptions (51), the second-fewest half-PPR points per game (6.8), and the sixth-fewest receiving yards (521), which spells nothing but bad news for Andrews.
May you have the best of luck in advancing to the semi-finals of your fantasy league.
