Fantasy
9/5/24
6 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 1
It’s time to set your Week 1 fantasy football lineup.
The difficulty with this task is that we haven’t seen any regular season action yet, so there are no current data trends to follow or base decisions on.
But what is life without a little bit of a challenge?
With some historical information, reading of football tea leaves, and essential consideration of matchup-based context, we’re here to help you make some of these lineup choices a little bit easier.
Read along to enrich your fantasy playbook with some highlighted picks of players to start confidently in Week 1 and a few athletes who might fall short of expectations on the NFL’s opening weekend.
>> READ MORE: Week 1 Fantasy Rankings
Week 1 Quarterback Starts
- Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (vs PIT)
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (vs LAR)
- Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (@ DET)
Sunday’s slate sets up nicely for this trio of veteran signal-callers.
Sure, immediately counting on a 36-year-old coming back from a midseason Achilles tear sounds like a foolish idea. But that didn’t stop the Atlanta Falcons from signing Cousins to a lucrative four-year contract this offseason. The former Pro Bowler immediately walks into a lineup chock full of talent with the likes of WR Drake London, among others.
He’ll face a Steelers secondary that didn’t improve much this offseason. Aside from established CB1 Joey Porter Jr., the black and gold will be starting 2023 UDFA slot corner Beanie Bishop Jr. and veteran Donte Jackson, acquired from the Panthers via trade, who is coming off an Achilles tendon tear of his own from Week 10 of last season.
Call it a hunch, but a player of Cousins’ caliber should soar in this matchup.
Goff and Stafford are intriguing fantasy quarterbacks on their own, but the fact that they are facing off against one another makes for a very high-scoring game.
This game being indoors helps Goff a lot, too. When playing in a dome last season (11 games), Goff saw a higher completion percentage (+6.6) and higher quarterback rating (+26.9) than he did in five games played outdoors. You should always feel better about the Lions’ offense when the game is in controlled weather.
As for Stafford, this is another revenge game for the former Detroit gunslinger. Plus, he posted a stellar 22.7 fantasy point performance (four points per passing touchdown scoring) with 367 passing yards in their last matchup in the NFC Wild Card Round.
It’s reasonable to bank on similar fireworks between the two powerhouse offenses this weekend.
Week 1 Quarterback Sits
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ MIA)
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs TEN)
The Dolphins' defense is in worse shape following the litany of losses in free agency. Still, Lawrence has a long way to go before proving to fantasy managers that he’s remotely reliable.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick failed to throw for more than 250 passing yards in seven of 16 games last season.
There’s also some ambiguity surrounding how effective former LSU standout and first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. and free agent signee Gabe Davis will be right off the bat. Banking on this passing attack in Week 1 feels rough until we have more information.
As for this year’s No. 1 overall pick, Williams looked great in spurts this preseason.
The former Heisman Trophy winner brings electricity as a mobile, Mahomesian improviser, but going with a rookie in their first career start is a bit bold — especially against a Titans defense that added the shutdown talents of CB L’Jarius Sneed via trade from the Chiefs this offseason.
Week 1 Running Back Starts
- Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (@ IND)
- Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (@ CHI)
- Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (vs DEN)
Mixon’s path to relevance is simple math, really.
The Colts allowed the second-most red zone rushing touchdowns (20) last year, according to Lineups. The veteran back also had the third-most goal line carries (56) in 2023.
Is a former Pro Bowl rusher comfortable shouldering the load near the goal line going against a soft front to open the season a good thing? Absolutely.
Receiving backs also asserted considerable dominance against the Chicago Bears defense last season. As a unit, Chicago allowed the most receiving yards (1,003) and the second-most receptions (107) to opposing backs in 2023.
Even in a split with new teammate Tony Pollard, this is a perfect spot for a pass-catcher like Spears. Remember, in his rookie season, Spears finished tied for ninth in targets (70) and receptions (52) among running backs. We’re looking at a solid flex play here.
Lastly, we check in with Walker III.
Even though the Seahawks’ offense may trend more pass-heavy this season under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Broncos’ red zone run defense was absolutely horrid last year, allowing the most rushing touchdowns (22) of any team.
The Seahawks can throw the ball all they want; once they get in close to the goal line, it would be pretty foolish of them to go away from Walker III.
Week 1 Running Back Sits
- Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ ATL)
- Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals (vs NE)
- Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (@ CLE)
The Steelers’ opening contest on the road in Atlanta presents potentially tough sledding for Harris. For as many flaws as the Falcons’ defense dealt with a year ago, they did finish 11th in run defense DVOA, according to FTN, and held opposing runners to just five touchdowns.
Couple that with the fact that the Steelers’ backfield is already a committee, and it’s not quite the rosiest look for Harris in Week 1.
Speaking of formidable run defenses, the Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards (1,294) in 2023 and held running backs to just 1.7 yards per carry in the red zone last season.
Conversely, the 86 receptions it allowed to opposing running backs were tied for ninth. That speaks to a more lucrative matchup opportunity for Chase Brown, the Bengals’ change-of-pace back, rather than early-down plodder Zack Moss.
Moss will have his moments in 2024, but Sunday doesn’t look good to be one of them.
Closing with the fantasy prospects of Zeke Elliott… he’s facing the Browns defense. Not to mention that the veteran still has to worry about sharing touches with Rico Dowdle.
It’s considerably safer to use this week to see the snap counts and touch distribution of that backfield rather than counting on it for fantasy production.
Week 1 Wide Receiver Starts
- Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs WAS)
- Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (vs HOU)
- Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (@ KC)
Godwin is in a great position to go off this weekend. The Commanders’ secondary allowed the most receiving yards (3,127) and receiving touchdowns (29) to opposing wideouts last year and didn’t improve much this offseason.
Also, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the slot (14) in 2023, according to Razzball. Godwin lines up as the Bucs’ slot receiver fairly frequently and should absolutely be in the flex conversation for Week 1.
Pittman Jr. also finds himself in a solid position to go off this weekend. There’s no doubt that he’ll look to be heavily involved in the Colts’ passing game after recording the fourth-highest target share in the NFL last season (30.5 percent).
Plus, teammate Josh Downs is still out due to a high ankle sprain sustained in training camp; there’s no guarantee he’ll suit up. Anthony Richardson would be irresponsible not to target Pittman Jr. in excess on Sunday.
Lastly, Flowers torched the Chiefs in the playoffs last season, ending the AFC Championship contest with a receiving line of 5-115-1. You can chalk this up to simply “feeling good” about this one in my gut, but I believe we’ll see another good performance from the second-year speedster on Thursday.
Week 1 Wide Receiver Sits
- DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (@ CHI)
- Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (vs DEN)
- George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (@ ATL)
Both Hopkins and Lockett are still dealing with lingering knee injuries suffered up during training camp.
Frankly, it’s too risky to bet on wideouts north of 30 years old entering the opening weekend. Granted, Hopkins carries a long-standing reputation of being held out of practice and then being fine to suit up on game day, but that doesn’t make the risk any more palatable.
It’s also worth considering Lockett’s already complicated situation. He’s competing with Jaxon Smith-Njigba for targets in a new offensive system. He has no guarantees of seeing the same secondary role opposite DK Metcalf that he’s experienced in the past.
That compounded concern makes for a shaky outlook.
Regarding Pickens, the Falcons’ suspect secondary (24th in pass defense DVOA in 2023) doesn’t magically offset the Steelers’ questionable offense.
The franchise struggled to find any rhythm in limited preseason action with QB Russell Wilson, and a road trip to play against a team that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith coached just last season feels like a poor recipe for success.
Oh, and possible shadow coverage from stout corner A.J. Terrell doesn’t help either. Fading Pickens this week feels wise.
Week 1 Tight End Starts
- Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs PIT)
- George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (vs NYJ)
- Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks (vs DEN)
Let’s call back to the inexperience of the Steelers’ secondary for a moment.
Kyle Pitts spends considerable time running routes from the slot as a pseudo-WR and can exploit a vulnerable pressure point of Pittsburgh’s secondary.
It’s not as though Pittsburgh will be eager to task 5-foot-9, 182-pound slot corner Beanie Bishop Jr., who has appeared in precisely zero NFL games, with covering Pitts on his primary pass-catching assignments all game long. Still, Pittsburgh doesn’t have a reliable answer for Pitts’ size and athleticism, which is a massive boon for him.
Following that same general logic, Jets CBs Sauce Garnder and Michael Carter II will do their best to slow down Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel on Monday night.
Based on those potential perimeter complications, this game is a good spot for Kittle to go off. It also helps Kittle’s case that the Jets allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends (eight) last season.
With Fant, the argument is simple: the Broncos let up a league-leading 10 touchdowns to tight ends last season.
If you’re looking for a long-shot dart throw mixed with a revenge game narrative, you could do worse than rolling out Fant if you’re in a 14 or 16-team league.
Week 1 Tight End Sits
- Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (@ CLE)
- Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (@ SF)
- Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (vs NE)
Despite having little competition for targets outside of WR CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson isn’t in a great spot to go off in the season opener against the Browns.
Cleveland allowed minimal production to tight ends last year, surrendering the fewest receiving yards (559) and catches (64). On average, that amounts to 7.1 points per game in point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. That’s not a particularly inspiring total.
Conklin and Gesicki have both shown flashes of relevance in the past, but they have large question marks looming over them.
Will Jets QB Aaron Rodgers look to his veteran tight end regularly? We don’t know. They’ve never played together before.
Can Gesicki emerge in a high-powered Bengals’ passing attack? Sure, but he lacks meaningful in-line blocking ability and will need to be rotated out in certain situations.
There’s reason to be bullish on both players as season-long sleepers, but the ambiguity of their roles in their new environments makes it difficult to be gung-ho about either this weekend.
