Fantasy
12/19/24
10 min read
Fantasy Football 2024: Start, Sit Picks for NFL Week 16
You know what time it is.
Week 16 is either your league’s semi-final or the beginning of a two-week championship. The sweat is on, and every choice you make is the difference between months of wasted effort or bragging rights and a prize.
Let’s dive straight into the Week 16 start/sit picks:
Week 16 Fantasy Football Start, Sit Advice
Week 16 Quarterback Starts
- Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs DAL)
- Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (@ SEA)
- Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (@ CHI)
Sometimes, it’s worth hammering home at a good point.
As my weekly rankings article shared, Baker Mayfield has been fantastic since Week 12. Per TruMedia, the veteran ranks sixth among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, posting an average of 278 passing yards per game (sixth among quarterbacks) with a 101.9 passer rating in that span.
This week, he’s got a relatively decent matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, who rank 19th in pass defense DVOA in 2024, according to FTN. Given Mayfield’s recent success and reasonable opponent, he’s a safe QB1 play for fantasy managers.
But those looking for safety ought not to look further than Sam Darnold; he’s about as safe as it gets. Through the past seven weeks, the Minnesota Vikings signal-caller ranks fifth in passing yards per game (274.3) and eighth in fantasy points per game (19.4) in four-point per passing touchdown scoring, per FantasyData. Regardless of the opponent, Darnold is you guy.
As for Goff, the Detroit Lions have undergone an uptick in passing during the past three weeks, producing an average of 44.7 attempts per game.
The thought process behind this one is that it would behoove Goff and company to toss the rock more without RB David Montgomery (torn MCL) in tow, and the reality of a pass-heavy game script is likely to produce fantasy points.
Week 16 Quarterback Sits
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs DEN)
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (@ KC)
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (vs NO)
Since Week 10, Herbert is averaging under 30 pass attempts per game and only nets 205.7 passing yards and 16.2 fantasy points per game (16th among QBs).
He’s just not getting it done for fantasy managers, and now he’ll be going up against a Denver Broncos secondary that is tough (sixth in pass defense DVOA) and has allowed just 15.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs this year, per FantasyPros.
With Stroud, it’s just getting ugly. The second-year gunslinger hasn’t been using very many of his proverbial bullets of late, averaging 208.9 passing yards and 11.5 fantasy points per game during the past eight weeks. Making matters worse, the Chiefs have allowed under 250 passing yards in three of their past four games.
It’s just not a great spot for a low-volume passer. The math doesn’t add up on Stroud, nor does it for our next player, Jordan Love.
Since the Green Bay Packers bye in Week 10, the offense has strayed particularly run-heavy. QB Jordan Love and company are operating a passing game at a -4.7 percent Pass Rate Over Expectation that ranks fifth-lowest across the league in that span.
To bring a tangible and familiar number to it all, Love is only averaging 23 pass attempts per game in this window and would simply need too much touchdown luck to warrant being depended on in playoff lineups.
Week 16 Running Back Starts
- Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (vs TB)
- Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (@ CIN)
- Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ LV)
Dowdle is a bonafide volume play.
The Cowboys bell cow leads all backs in rushing yards per game (130.7), third in carries per game (21.7), and ninth in snap share (73.1 percent) since Week 13. Regardless of matchup, running backs who see this kind of volume are always worth a start. Fire Dowdle up as a quality RB2 with room for more.
With Nick Chubb (broken foot) out of commission, Jerome Ford will elevate into a starting role this week against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and allowed an average of 22.7 PPR points to opposing running backs in 2024, per 4for4.
The recipe for success is all there.
Despite only appearing on 38.5 percent of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offensive snaps over the past two weeks, second-year bruiser Tank Bigsby is leading the way as the primary 1A back with a rush share of 52.7 percent (14.5 carries per game in that span).
The Las Vegas Raiders rank 25th in run defense DVOA and have allowed at least 150 rushing yards in back-to-back contests. They should present Bigsby with a quality opportunity to net flex value in this critical week of competition.
Week 16 Running Back Sits
- Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (@ BUF)
- Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (@ IND)
- D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (vs DET)
Since Week 10, Stevenson has ranked as the RB35 in PPR points per game (9.5) despite seeing an average of 18 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game in that five-week span. His inefficiency is horrendous, and the Bills' defense ranks sixth-best in run defense DVOA in 2024.
I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a hard pass.
Tyjae Spears’ inclusion isn’t to say he’s not an intriguing option, but that it just might be too soon to trust him. The second-year speedster enjoyed an uptick in receiving in Week 15, recording six catches on seven targets for 87 yards and a pair of scores vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
What’s more interesting is the fact that six of Spears’ seven targets and all his receiving production came in the second half with QB Mason Rudolph under center. Now that starter Will Levis has been officially benched, it’ll be worth seeing if Spears’ check-down connection with Rudolph is for real, but it’s just too risky for the fantasy semi-finals.
Through the past month, Swift ranks as the RB40 in PPR points per game (8.4), averaging 46.5 rushing yards per game in that span. Like Stevenson, he’s inefficient despite seeing quality volume (16.7 touch opportunities per game) and will be going up against a stout Detroit Lions front (11th in run defense DVOA).
It’s not a great spot for managers looking to advance to the title picture.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Starts
- Malik Nabers, New York Giants (@ ATL)
- Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (@ LV)
- Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (vs ARI)
Can we give Malik Nabers some credit for a second?
Since undergoing quarterback changes in Week 12, the New York Giants rookie has averaged 7.2 receptions and 73.5 receiving yards per game on a team-leading 29.3 percent target share.
If anything, this is a reminder that fantasy football is a numbers game based on a sport and that Nabers is good. Volume is his friend, and it’s yours too. And while we’re at it, let’s give some props to Nabers’ college teammate and current Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
As shared in my rankings article, the former LSU wideout ranks seventh among receivers in PPR points per game (20.4) with averages of 6.8 receptions and 87.2 receiving yards per game during the past four weeks. In that timeframe, Thomas Jr. also holds a 46.7 percent air yards share in this span that ranks tied for third with fellow first-year pass-catcher Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals.
The usage is incredible, and the Las Vegas Raiders' defense has allowed 62.8 receiving yards per game to opposing teams’ WR1s in 2024 to date, per FTN. The formula for success is cooking here.
As for Thielen, he’s just another safe volume play.
During the past three weeks, Thielen has averaged 9.3 targets per game, 7.3 catches, and 84 receiving yards per game. Plus, without rookie Xavier Legette in the lineup due to a groin injury, QB Bryce Young will have to lean on Thielen more than usual, in all likelihood.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Sits
- DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (vs MIN)
- Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills (vs NE)
Metcalf has disappeared in the past month.
Despite seeing a monstrous team-leading 40.1 percent air yards share, the veteran only converts 3.8 catches and 50.5 receiving yards per game. That’s less than double-digit production in PPR scoring.
Metcalf is always a threat to rip off a big play and reinsert himself back into the alpha conversation, but a Week 16 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings (second-best pass defense DVOA in 2024) is undoubtedly an unlikely spot for that resurgence to occur.
Frankly, Cooper disappeared last week in what should’ve been a prime spot in a high-scoring affair vs. the Detroit Lions (40.5 percent route participation, zero targets).
Until we get a better grasp on why Cooper isn’t consistently involved, he’s simply too risky to play.
Week 16 Tight End Starts
- Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (vs TB)
- Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ LV)
This feels like a good “get right” game for Ferguson.
He’s seen 10 targets during the past two weeks since returning from a concussion, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allows the third-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (67.1). It’s just a matter of time before he puts it together, and I feel like Week 16 might just be the spot.
I promise you all this will be the last time I borrow this information, but in case you missed this week’s waiver article and rankings article, it’s currently Brenton Strange season.
In five games without starter Evan Engram in tow (Week 2-5, Week 15), Strange has posted an average of 4.6 receptions, 38.6 receiving yards, and 10.9 PPR points per game. For context, extrapolating those 10.9 points per game across the whole season would be enough for Strange to rank as the TE7 in 2024.
Evan Engram is gone for the season with a torn labrum. Embrace the goodness that is getting Strange into your life.
Week 16 Tight End Sits
- Grant Calcaterra, Philadelphia Eagles (@ WAS)
- Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (@ NYG)
We’ll end this piece with some quick hitters.
Calcaterra has occasionally filled in reasonably well for regular starter Dallas Goedert this season, but Week 16 is not a good matchup for him.
The Washington Commanders allow the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (43.8) to opposing tight ends in 2024 — lousy spot, backup tight end, nothing exciting.
And with Pitts, if you’ve made it this far with him, then kudos to you. The former all-world prospect is averaging a putrid 1.5 catches for 12.8 yards on 3.8 targets during the past month.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m interested to see how he does with Michael Penix Jr. in the lineup now that the Atlanta Falcons have finally benched Kirk Cousins, but it’s too risky for the playoffs.
